Life gives you what it will. It's not necessarily what you'd ask for, or what you'd work best with. But it's what you're gonna get. So get used to the idea and get something done...
"Stubbornness does have its helpful features. You always know what you're going to be thinking tomorrow."
-- Glen Bearnan
Charts and tables up.
What do Modern Portfolio Theory, The Modern Jazz Quartet, and Joe Facer have in common? If you've got that answer, you know why I'm approaching a 50% return over 3 years and why I expect there are going to be major changes occurring around and about the 401a and defined benefit pension plans. Stay tooned...
What I’m gonna be doing with my 401a on Tuesday, Wednesday, etc? Now for something completely different. I don’t know what is going to happen and I’m uneasy.
I’ve pontificated, elucidated, and articulated my concerns about the market and the economy for much of this year. See entrys below. I and some of the guys who are following along with me were in cash by March. It seemed to be the smart thing to do.
I tried to do the same thing in a couple of IRA’s and a trading account I have, but I pretty much failed. I expected the market to be a runaway steamroller and I had no desire to try to pick up pennies laying in front of it. I thought I was going to unwind all my leverage and option positions and go heavy to cash and defensive stocks. Instead, what I saw was an opportunity to pick up some serious cash while risking the steamroller. I saw some things I wanted to buy because they were going to go up. So I dialed back the wild eyed cowboy and dialed up the squint eyed card shark. I hit and ran, scalped, and I locked in profits with sales. I got to the other side of the street with a handfulla cash and totally unmashed. I’ve had a good three months and I’ve made my year. Being smart aggressive and lucky, (not necessarily in that order) in combination with the right circumstances makes you feel pretty good about yourself.
Of course as good as I looked in my trading account, I looked just as bad in the 401a. Being in cash caught me on the wrong side of the trade and cost me some money. But earnings season is over. First quarter profits were good for international corporations but forward guidance is lousy for domestic players, the wrong stocks are leading, the economy is slowing, we have a significant case of inflation that we can’t fix without throwing way too many people out of work, and the easy fix is nowhere in sight.
And regardless of how well I did playing in front of the steamroller, it shows more luck, pluck and determination than brains. And now it's raining on the steamroller, the street is slippery and too dark to see if there is money in the puddles on the ground or not....
I don't like the risk reward nearly as well.....
Anyway I got back into the market in the 401A as I started getting ahead in my other accounts and getting left behind by the B/P Fund. It was too late. I don’t have much to show for it other than a handfulla stocks and no catalyst for profits that I can see. And I don’t see the market letting me make it up here and now. Cash is starting to have a real strong attraction again. Makin’ money is fun. Losing money is a bummer. Making it and keeping it is the mostest fun. I'm still nearly fully invested and I'm definitely uncomfortable about it.
Whatever I do, you’ll read about it here…..
Hey!!! My depost into the 401a from last month is about 30 days late....Check your acct....
5/30/07
The market is whacko. I sold some more stuff in my personal accounts today on limit and market orders while I was at work. I left a lot of money on the table, and I STILL did really good. Caution, reasonableness, responsibility, and all things proper and decorious mean nothing in this market. Wanna be an investing hero? Buy everything you can, buy on dips, buy on spikes, sell to get the cash to buy more. The quote below lives taped facin me on my desk. It's from Jim "Reverend Shark" De Porre writing on Real Money...
What's this got to do with investing in my 401a? Not much!! ya see...
"The idiots are running prices up and down."
And we who have 401a accounts ain't among 'em
We've got rules against rapid trading. We've got a small handful of investment choices that are a basket of someone else's ideas. And we aren't allowed to know what we are buying and selling and we've got to wait up to 24 hours after we make the decision to make the buy/sale. That's the way the game is structured, that how we play the game, those are the rules etc.
So be it. Ignore the talking heads. "Things are going down the toobs".... while the idices post record highs.
"Buyout fever is making investors in the right stocks rich!".... But we aren't and can't be there with them.
"It will all end and end badly".... It always does.
But it is wrong to have money at risk and not garner any reward.
It is wrong to miss out on gains and maxize losses by avoiding the market when it is going up and staying in it when it is going down. it's just lazy.
SO..... there's a lotta territory between the year when I made approximately 700 trades in my trading account and ran with the idiot's pushing prices up and down, and making one decision, one time, sticking with it for a lifetime, looking at the statements a coupla times a year and expecting to do really well.
What I've done is to find something that works for me somewhere in that territory. I stay within the rules and work them,trying to maximise return and minimize risk. I know the costs and keep a running tally of the benefits. Hopefully, everyone finds a way to deal with their 401 that works as well for them. See ya at the hall.
-- Glen Bearnan
Charts and tables up.
What do Modern Portfolio Theory, The Modern Jazz Quartet, and Joe Facer have in common? If you've got that answer, you know why I'm approaching a 50% return over 3 years and why I expect there are going to be major changes occurring around and about the 401a and defined benefit pension plans. Stay tooned...
What I’m gonna be doing with my 401a on Tuesday, Wednesday, etc? Now for something completely different. I don’t know what is going to happen and I’m uneasy.
I’ve pontificated, elucidated, and articulated my concerns about the market and the economy for much of this year. See entrys below. I and some of the guys who are following along with me were in cash by March. It seemed to be the smart thing to do.
I tried to do the same thing in a couple of IRA’s and a trading account I have, but I pretty much failed. I expected the market to be a runaway steamroller and I had no desire to try to pick up pennies laying in front of it. I thought I was going to unwind all my leverage and option positions and go heavy to cash and defensive stocks. Instead, what I saw was an opportunity to pick up some serious cash while risking the steamroller. I saw some things I wanted to buy because they were going to go up. So I dialed back the wild eyed cowboy and dialed up the squint eyed card shark. I hit and ran, scalped, and I locked in profits with sales. I got to the other side of the street with a handfulla cash and totally unmashed. I’ve had a good three months and I’ve made my year. Being smart aggressive and lucky, (not necessarily in that order) in combination with the right circumstances makes you feel pretty good about yourself.
Of course as good as I looked in my trading account, I looked just as bad in the 401a. Being in cash caught me on the wrong side of the trade and cost me some money. But earnings season is over. First quarter profits were good for international corporations but forward guidance is lousy for domestic players, the wrong stocks are leading, the economy is slowing, we have a significant case of inflation that we can’t fix without throwing way too many people out of work, and the easy fix is nowhere in sight.
And regardless of how well I did playing in front of the steamroller, it shows more luck, pluck and determination than brains. And now it's raining on the steamroller, the street is slippery and too dark to see if there is money in the puddles on the ground or not....
I don't like the risk reward nearly as well.....
Anyway I got back into the market in the 401A as I started getting ahead in my other accounts and getting left behind by the B/P Fund. It was too late. I don’t have much to show for it other than a handfulla stocks and no catalyst for profits that I can see. And I don’t see the market letting me make it up here and now. Cash is starting to have a real strong attraction again. Makin’ money is fun. Losing money is a bummer. Making it and keeping it is the mostest fun. I'm still nearly fully invested and I'm definitely uncomfortable about it.
Whatever I do, you’ll read about it here…..
Hey!!! My depost into the 401a from last month is about 30 days late....Check your acct....
5/30/07
The market is whacko. I sold some more stuff in my personal accounts today on limit and market orders while I was at work. I left a lot of money on the table, and I STILL did really good. Caution, reasonableness, responsibility, and all things proper and decorious mean nothing in this market. Wanna be an investing hero? Buy everything you can, buy on dips, buy on spikes, sell to get the cash to buy more. The quote below lives taped facin me on my desk. It's from Jim "Reverend Shark" De Porre writing on Real Money...
If you trade stocks in the short term, one of things that you need to be very aware of is that sometimes the action that seems extremely stupid is the best way to make money.
If a lot of people with a lot of money are chasing grossly overvalued stocks, it can feel pretty dumb to throw caution to the wind and join the party.
There are reams of sophisticated fundamental analyses out there that purport to establish what a stock is worth. What you need to realize is that the correlation between a stock's 'value' and the price it is trading at is very loose in the short term.
In fact, there can be a complete disconnect between the two for very long periods of time.
If you are going to trade in the short term, you need to decide whether you are willing to do the dumb things that make money or are you going to stick to the "facts" and stand aside while the idiots run prices up and down.
It's all about sentiment, mood and psychology in the short term ,and it doesn't pay to think too hard about fundamentals if you are playing in the short term."
What's this got to do with investing in my 401a? Not much!! ya see...
"The idiots are running prices up and down."
And we who have 401a accounts ain't among 'em
We've got rules against rapid trading. We've got a small handful of investment choices that are a basket of someone else's ideas. And we aren't allowed to know what we are buying and selling and we've got to wait up to 24 hours after we make the decision to make the buy/sale. That's the way the game is structured, that how we play the game, those are the rules etc.
So be it. Ignore the talking heads. "Things are going down the toobs".... while the idices post record highs.
"Buyout fever is making investors in the right stocks rich!".... But we aren't and can't be there with them.
"It will all end and end badly".... It always does.
But it is wrong to have money at risk and not garner any reward.
It is wrong to miss out on gains and maxize losses by avoiding the market when it is going up and staying in it when it is going down. it's just lazy.
SO..... there's a lotta territory between the year when I made approximately 700 trades in my trading account and ran with the idiot's pushing prices up and down, and making one decision, one time, sticking with it for a lifetime, looking at the statements a coupla times a year and expecting to do really well.
What I've done is to find something that works for me somewhere in that territory. I stay within the rules and work them,trying to maximise return and minimize risk. I know the costs and keep a running tally of the benefits. Hopefully, everyone finds a way to deal with their 401 that works as well for them. See ya at the hall.
Calendar
