The art of investment is the art of selling. Buying is a lesser skill and holding requires no skill at all."
-- Harry Schultz
Chartz and Table Zup!!!!
Check out the chart below. CLICK ONNIT!
"
The chart is the performance, year to date, in the funds available to the 401a. There's big time profits here in the 401a as of yesterday and throughout most of the stock market as well. Charts don't lie. But stocks were circling the drain in early August because everybody had all of a sudden finally realized that once the punchbowl of cheap rates and easy money were taken away, that cold sobriety and a godawful hangover were guaranteed to follow. Everybody started puking up stocks and the market was goin' down. So then the Fed put its foot over the drain and announced that there would be money available to keep the economy going, Everybody took a headlong dive in the direction of the punchbowl, ready to party hearty just like it was 1999. The problem is that the Fed intends to salvage only the best, brightest, and most deserving. The soaks and rumdumbs that screwed up the party for everybody else are on their own. And salvage has more to do with a hair of the dog and a breakfast than filling the punchbowl back up so everybody can dive in again. I think that everybodys just figuired that part out.
Friday afternoon I blew 90% of the positions in my trading account out at the market. I've gone from fully margined to half cash in the last month as well as from big time options exposure to one position. I've booked one hell of a year. Time to go short runnish, fade the pop, and think about how to pay taxes on the profit. I feel great. But I screwed up bigtime, too. I should have done the same in my 401a. DAMN!!! I expect to do that Monday, a day late. I'll let you know about it then.
See, in August it was stocks in the toilet 'cuz the system was breaking down over the subprime mess locking up the credit market. That was the kind of thing that takes the whole system down in flames into a depression. It was time to blow out all your stocks. That got fixed by the Fed. Now we're looking at housing and associated businesses cratering, mortgage outfits going out of business, banks writing down huge amounts of real estate loans and kissing a huge percentage of the mortgage business goodby for upcoming years, the yen arry trade going away, and homeowners looking at the value of their homes withering away. And the rest of the US and the world getting by as long as jobs and employment hold out. That is the kind of thing that could lead to a recession. I think it's time to sell the right stocks.
That's easier said than done when all you can do is play a handful of mutual funds. So I gotta substitute the ability to move in time for the ability to move in direction. The first step is to get through the next two weeks. Cash is the place for me. Then I gotta watch for the end of the year bonus riff to show up.
Stay tooned.
See ya at the track.
-- Harry Schultz
Chartz and Table Zup!!!!
Check out the chart below. CLICK ONNIT!
;)
"The chart is the performance, year to date, in the funds available to the 401a. There's big time profits here in the 401a as of yesterday and throughout most of the stock market as well. Charts don't lie. But stocks were circling the drain in early August because everybody had all of a sudden finally realized that once the punchbowl of cheap rates and easy money were taken away, that cold sobriety and a godawful hangover were guaranteed to follow. Everybody started puking up stocks and the market was goin' down. So then the Fed put its foot over the drain and announced that there would be money available to keep the economy going, Everybody took a headlong dive in the direction of the punchbowl, ready to party hearty just like it was 1999. The problem is that the Fed intends to salvage only the best, brightest, and most deserving. The soaks and rumdumbs that screwed up the party for everybody else are on their own. And salvage has more to do with a hair of the dog and a breakfast than filling the punchbowl back up so everybody can dive in again. I think that everybodys just figuired that part out.
Friday afternoon I blew 90% of the positions in my trading account out at the market. I've gone from fully margined to half cash in the last month as well as from big time options exposure to one position. I've booked one hell of a year. Time to go short runnish, fade the pop, and think about how to pay taxes on the profit. I feel great. But I screwed up bigtime, too. I should have done the same in my 401a. DAMN!!! I expect to do that Monday, a day late. I'll let you know about it then.
See, in August it was stocks in the toilet 'cuz the system was breaking down over the subprime mess locking up the credit market. That was the kind of thing that takes the whole system down in flames into a depression. It was time to blow out all your stocks. That got fixed by the Fed. Now we're looking at housing and associated businesses cratering, mortgage outfits going out of business, banks writing down huge amounts of real estate loans and kissing a huge percentage of the mortgage business goodby for upcoming years, the yen arry trade going away, and homeowners looking at the value of their homes withering away. And the rest of the US and the world getting by as long as jobs and employment hold out. That is the kind of thing that could lead to a recession. I think it's time to sell the right stocks.
That's easier said than done when all you can do is play a handful of mutual funds. So I gotta substitute the ability to move in time for the ability to move in direction. The first step is to get through the next two weeks. Cash is the place for me. Then I gotta watch for the end of the year bonus riff to show up.
Stay tooned.
See ya at the track.
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