TRANSITIONING BACK TO REALITY..... SUCH AS IT IS.... 

"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
-Joan Robinson,



Charts and Table Zup on the site. I'm back to where I wanna be in the 401a, 10% plus annual rate of return over the last 4 Years. I stayed way too long at the party, I had an almost 14% a year return going. I shoulda tapered off between August and January, but I'm new and self taught at this stuff. Still, ya go with what works and this works for me. I expect to do better when the current fires burn themselves out. The year to date has been a day traders' market and no place for a long term investor. If your investment time period was hours or days, ther was a LOT of money to be made. But I'm just a workin' stiff... Ninety five percent in cash in the 401a and hedged long/short out the wazoo in Ira's and my trading account tell the tale.


Check this out!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

``It's like an ongoing nightmare and no one is sure when we're going to wake up,'' said Thomson, a money manager in Glasgow at Resolution, which oversees $46 billion in bonds. ``Things are going to get worse before they get better.''

In a replay of the last four months of 2007, interest-rate derivatives imply that banks are becoming more hesitant to lend on speculation credit losses will increase as the global economic slowdown deepens. Binit Patel, an economist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an Aug. 21 report that nations accounting for half of the world's economy face a recession.

The premium banks charge for lending short-term cash may approach the record levels set last year, based on trading in the forward markets, where financial instruments are sold for future delivery. Back then, concern about the health of the banking system led investors to shun all but the safest government debt, sparking the biggest end-of-year rally for Treasuries since 2000.

``These problems going into year-end are likely to be worse this time round because of the amount banks have to refinance in December,'' Thomson said, citing a figure of $88 billion. ``The suspicion is that banks are still hiding losses. The banking system relies on trust and at the minute there quite simply isn't any.''


Real estate is in the toilet. The originate to distribute model of mortgages, car and bike loans, and collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) is dead. Money is hard to create and/or borrow and the velocity is gonna be slow. The money roller coaster that has fueled the economy and the financial sector is in the corner S and D ing.What do YOU see that's gonna turn this situation around?

Check it out...CLICKIT!!!



Big interday swings, the individual stocks look like death even as the indexes look much less volatile. (There are advantages to diversifying...) A coupla months of "climbing a wall of fear" and then a coupla months of "sliding down the slope of hope". All to get back to the bottom, a long way from where we were last fall.

All cash all the time. I'll let you know when I make a move. Don't hold yer breath.....


And Finally....


Smart Investors Have to Wonder Who's Dumb Now: Michael R. Sesit


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home


http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ ... -stat.html




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