Ninety percent of politics is deciding whom to blame.
-- Meg Greenfield

CHARTZ AND TABLE ZUP @ WWW.JOEFACER.COM

UPDATED CONSTANTLY....OR NOT. EDITS OF EXISTING POSTS NOT CALLED OUT.
LOOK FOR THE DAY OF THE WEEK FOR NEW ADDITIONS.


I talked this week with a friend who participates in the boilermakers' defined benefit pension plan . He said that he had received a letter recently from the pension fund announcing that all pensions were to be halved. This sounds like what would happen if the pension plan were to fall low enough in assets to trigger the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp (PGBC) guaranty. As I understand it, when a pension plan's assets vs their liabilities fall enough, the PBGC steps in and cuts pension payouts by a complex formula that ballparks as roughly a 50% cut. All non monetary benefits are canceled and the PBGC loans the pension plan funds to meet its obligations until the plan can be funded adequately with more contributions. I have not seen the letter, but I consider him to be a reliable sources given that what I got was a conversational summary of the letter.

I also talked to a friend who attended a recent meeting at the electricians local who said he was told that if things did not change for the better, that the defined benefit pension plan would fall below critical funding requirements by 2014, requiring default. His pension plan had reduced the pension credit paid for last year and he was told that it would be cut this year by an additional 40%.

I received the usual yearly legally required letter from my defined benefit pension plan last year and it was noted that additional contributions would be required this year to maintain funding. This is not surprising, given the chaos in the financial markets, but it would be a damn good thing to have enough details to be understand what the situation is and to be able to plan and react appropriately.




Last November was the point of maximum panic. The current hope for a recovery in the market has been the belief that November was THE LOW for this cycle. Now we are about to find out if this is true. We hit the low last week and we test the November low this week. The main difference this time is that it is not a "fire in the theater and only one exit" panic. It is more of a abandon all hope 'cuz not only is it REALLY REALLY bad, no matter how bad yesterday was, today's news just gets worse.

HANG ONNnnn!!!!!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/gdp-is/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/ne ... -down-482/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/at ... e-zombies/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content ... 205938.gif
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/med ... =101144610
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/wo ... get-worse/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29453718/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/un ... the-world/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/q4 ... m-and-wfc/
http://www.2000wave.com/gateway.asp
http://www.newsweek.com/id/186957
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29455792/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/de ... recession/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/golden-parachute/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/magaz ... .html?_r=1
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/na ... ew-n-word/
http://www.dilbert.com/strips/comic/2009-02-25/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/bl ... rey-goose/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/me ... roit-7500/


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/bu ... 43,00.html
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14753
http://www.ogj.com/display_article/3547 ... ion-costs/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/opini ... wanted=all
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/ser ... iness/home
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article ... 392677.htm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1235776 ... od=testMod
http://www.economist.com/printedition/d ... D=13184655
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/artic ... 89,00.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/magaz ... wanted=all
http://isthisthebottom.com/







As per the charts on my website, www.joefacer.com, My funds are virtually all in bonds or equivalents. AGAIN, Nothing Ventured, Nothing At Risk...

The US and European credit markets are totally stretched and weighed down with toxic assets. There is no motivation to loan and a lot of companies that may yet fail.

It is a world wide crisis with great risk to the political and financial integrity of European Union.

China is as awash with factories and unemployment as we are with debt and is as awash with capacity as we are with securities. They are as short customers as we are of good loan prospects and a lot farther away from creating domestic consumption than we are.

The European economic situation may engender geopolitical strife as national security may be threatened in a number of countries.

It looks more and more like GM and Chrysler may get prepackaged bankruptcies or something similar.

The stress test riff of the Fed looks like yet another case of too little/missing the point.

There are more shoes to drop as the 6% plus drop in GDP for '08's last quarter may accelerate. Insurance companies may be the next shoe.

So the Met Life GIC pays the best of my 401a options, is stuffed full of well rated bonds and securities, and would be the place I'd most like to put my money. But the bonds are well rated the same ratings agencies that rated the mortgage bonds that almost cratered the global financial markets. You've seen the stock chart for MET here in this blog. I listen to what the market says. Its the smart thing to do.

SO... I'm big time in bonds with virtually no stocks in my 401a. I'm leaving way too much money on the table as the bond funds bleed a little here and there. It hurts. And ordinarily I'd just go the the GIC for relief. But I just can't expose my savings to one company, non diversified risk. It's just that this time doin' the smart thing is also a little painful....

MONDAY

Blew right through the prior low.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!!!!!!!!


TUESDAY


GAWD WHAT A CRUMMY TWO DAYS!!!!

'NUFF SAID



THURSDAY

WAS IT TOO LATE TO SELL MONDAY?
NOPE. BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, I'D A LOST A PRETTY GOOD YEAR'S WORTH OF RETURNS IF I HAD STILL BEEN IN THE MARKET....



GAWD WHAT A CRUMMY 4 DAYS!!!!

WOULD I BE WORRIED ABOUT HAVING MONEY IN MET LIFE? IF I HAD MONEY IN MET LIFE In THE FIRST PLACE? MORE THAN 'NUFF SAID...

Stay tooned...