Nuttin' Clever Comes To Mind....An' My Elbow Hurts...You Fill It In For Once.
Friday, September 18, 2009, 11:01 PM
Thank you America, for the great choice between the spineless left and the lunatic right.
--Alan Farley
Stay tooned
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f64XZRRs ... re=related
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/wh ... ts-losses/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/th ... r-sort-of/
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... holtz-Says
My 401a is sixty four percent stocks and the rest in bonds. The market WILL crack. But I dunno when. All the people who mistrusted and hated this rally all the way up are standing by, ready to finally buy any pullback. And they've been waiting for months. But it is easier to plan to buy when stocks are going down than it is when they actually lose value. Some people (like me) gave up waiting for a pullback and bought in on the way up, supporting more upside. More will do so. But there are a lot of profits out there. And everybody who took partial profits on the way up ended up leaving money on the table. So there is a ton of pent up sales to protect profits hanging in mid air. If the whoosh down comes on major non market bad news, it could overwhelm and panic the dip buyers and become a self reinforcing cascade. But the pro's NEED to be up at year end to keep their jobs and they will toss in the kitchen sink to make it so. And the pols NEED to be up at the end of the year and into the '10 elections to be re elected so they will borrow and spend everything available to you, the taxpayer. But at least the money pros can lock the year in early by not waiting until the last week of the year to declare victory. It may end up a competition to sneak out the door early. But if you look at post 2000 to date as a bear market with one complete multi year bear market rally built on private debt and a partially complete bear market rally built on emotion and public debt, you face the possibility that the rally could have a ways yet to go.
Or maybe the PollyAnna's are right and the whoosh up since March is the market being a leading indicator about the bear market being
history and predicting a complete and total recovery in the months ahead.
There's a lot of rationalizations and possible outcomes. But there are two two measures of reality that are unequivocal and that are available to me in instantaneous and raw form; time and price. Markets are in a sustained uptrend after a gawdawful plunge and looking toppish, and I'm partially aboard with my finger on the eject button.
http://men.style.com/gq/features/landin ... tent_10957
Stay Tooned, Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.
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