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Volatility; The Trader's Friend and the Investor's Nemisis. Here To Stay, Regardless.......
Saturday, November 20, 2010, 05:34 PM
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
--Thomas Jefferson
Back Inna Garage Band Day, When You Had No Talent, It Was What You Played. How Could You Sound Good Without A Vox Continental inna band? Didn't a set of Ludwigs make me a drummer and wouldn't I have been even better with a full set of Zildjians? Biff Acne Showing Up With His Fender Jaguar And Vox SuperBeatle Amp Had More Instant Cred Than Eric Clapton Bopping By Lugging A Harmony Guitar And A Silvertone Amp...
Ah, youth....
Another Moldy Oldie.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-VFq6nW ... re=related
The market is acting magnetized to a critical technical level. The recent bounce back up to and bumping up and through resistance and falling back through support has stopped my reallocation for now. Data on my website and theo-philisophical discussion and metamatic and cosmic allegorical ruminations to appear here later this weekend.....
Refied this week, just in time... Rates going up inna face of QE, bonds going down... Not expected and not good. Gotta factor this in to the 401a... corporates were good to me for much of this year. Gotta be concerned about giving it back in the market's ebb and flow and give and take... Getting what the market gives is OK. Letting the market take it back does not float my boat...
Pure platinum/diamond/gold on a financial website. Who'da thunk?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/st ... -way-home/
  ( 3 / 1106 )
I've spent years and years in a single day waiting to get out of school when I was in 5th grade and about an hour between my 59th and 60th birthdays. The Relativity Of Time Becomes Clearer As I Age....
Saturday, November 13, 2010, 04:32 PM
"...in an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it"
-- Herbert Simon
This always went along whenever somebody got experienced for the first time.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxpcZrQQM-4
Tough week. End o' the year levitation vs too far too fast, China's coolin' inflation down and domestic reality setting in.
You gotta front row seat (in the cage) on the cage match between these dead economists...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/fe ... ap-anthem/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... ate1-.html
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201011 ... r_and_g_20
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40136417/ns ... l_finance/
http://redtape.msnbc.com/2010/11/in-new ... html#posts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... kfire.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... egion.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... -says.html
Bloody week in and of itself....in perspective, not so much. I've got friends still 100% inna GIC because they can't deal with the volatility of the markets once they get some serious balances in their 401a. Weekly gains can be overwhelmed and forgotten by serious down days. It can be breathtaking. No knock on them. If you haven't experienced it, you haven't got a glimpse down inta the abyss. Stocks go up on the escalator and can go down like falling down the elevator shaft.....
That said....This week was not good and Friday was a bloody nose. But it was on top of a good two months gains... correction and digestion before the next leg up or change in trend and the start of the markets rolling over?
Now... Don't fight the FED vs domestic reality vs China's interest rate bumps vs end of the year Wall Street money manager contract renewals, vs Holiday spirits vs get the last of what's on the table cuz it's been good so far and more is better vs declare victory and leave the table a guaranteed winner. This ain't an easy choice... Stay long and strong and make some more or lose most or all of what I've made, take half off the table and get 50% of the gains but risk only half losses? Or leave the table and call 12% return a pretty good year, which it really is?
I just don't think the year's highs for the market are in....although they might be. Monday will tell the tale. Standing pat, ready to react, and waiting for the market to tell me what it's gonna do and what I should do...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/ro ... eposition/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/fi ... r-the-bar/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40182444/ns ... l_finance/
Monday night....
TUESDAY
70+% cash and bonds, getting smaller in stocks tomorrow. Locking in profits....reducing risk....
Scars Are Tattoos That Are More About Where Ya Been and Less About Decoration. Memories Are Better Than Last Decade's Intentions, Last Decade's Missed Opportunities, And This Decade's Regrets....
Saturday, October 23, 2010, 02:21 PM
"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."
-John Maynard Keynes
There was always a dichotomy between the Bill Graham/'Mo Auditorium live extended/jam/conceptual compositions/performances and the tight top 40 two minute/plus pop music. De 'Mo Vs Longshoreman's Hall. Sometimes the short stuff said what it had to say and then shut the fuck up. Check out the hair/Höfner bass etc. Way period...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJR_KGZO4U0
Tom Graff of Real Money sez that the Fed wants to see a little more inflation and to achieve that, they are willing to risk a lot more inflation. That's pretty much what I see. Having lived and worked through a big stagflation episode when the oil companies were throwing money left an' right an' I was there to catch my share, ('80-'85) I'm less than sanguine about doing it over again as a retiree when the banks/government are the ones with the cash (mine and yours used as collateral for loans) and I ain't inna path o' the geyser of cash......
My current 401a riff is still working. Fine tuning it now. Check out the percentages on my website. Buy an' Sell. Nailed one. Hope to nail the other. Tick...Tick...Tick........
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/10/23/a-py ... rance.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-1 ... vanec.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/mo ... -linkfest/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39801398/ns ... al_estate/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-2 ... -baum.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/fo ... re-nation/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/du ... ng-fracas/
Washington says nothing can be done. There's no money left.
No money? The marginal income tax rate on the very rich is the lowest it has been in more than 80 years.
Robert Reich
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1FV3LE.DTL
[/4]
YEEEEEHAA!!!!! GO GIANTS!!!!!!!!!
Stay Tooned.....
 ( 2.9 / 1169 )
So Much Good Music In My Library, So Many Good Musicians Gone. (Listening To Little Feat Late 90's Concerts w/ Richie Hayward) So Greatful For So Many Recordings Available To Fill The Day With Great Music.
Saturday, October 9, 2010, 02:15 PM
"If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence."
-- Bertrand Russell
Time And Money. The Trick Is To Have Enough Of Both. Workin' Onnit......
Saturday, September 18, 2010, 03:12 PM
I am not a Democrat, because I have no idea what their economic policies are; And I am not a Republican, because I know precisely what their economic policies are.
-- Barry Ritholtz
Good month for me so far. I'm half in the high horsepower stock funds inna 401a and the rest is corporates.
I really should write about it, and maybe I will too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-1 ... o-cut.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/pr ... n-payment/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-1 ... looms.html
http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2010 ... -bailouts/
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/15/lehm ... esson.html
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/16/our- ... ng-us.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39230668/ns ... tn_africa/
CHECK IT OUT
Increased saving is not only being used to repay debt but also to rebuild 401(k)s. Fidelity Investments found that in the second quarter, 5.3% of participants raised their contribution while 2.9% reduced them.... Conventional monetary ease is now impotent with the federal funds rate close to zero , the money multiplier collapsed and banks sitting on hoards of cash (Chart 12) and over $1 trillion in excess reserves. Sure, large banks report to the Fed that they are easing lending standards for small business, but after the intervening financial crisis, many fewer potential borrowers are deemed creditworthy than in the loose lending days. Furthermore, the small business trade group, the National Federation of Independent Business, reports that 91% of small business owners have had their credit needs met or business is so slow that they don’t want to borrow. The Fed is pushing on the proverbial string.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/58967/#more-58967
<iframe src="http://videos.mediaite.com/embed/player/?layout=&playlist_cid=&media_type=video&content=TD1Z7H1579MF23QC&widget_type_cid=svp" width="420" height="421" frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true"></iframe>
The Howard Simons mentioned in the post below is a gentleman that I have followed, spoken to, and corresponded with over the last ten years. He has my utmost respect. The report he authored is not directly actionable, but it pretty much confirms what I've seen anecdotally... The Kotok piece is part of my input and IS actionable as part of a strategy. YMMV
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/p-t-f-s-d/
Stay tooned....
Short Sleeve Shirtz, White Belt, Polyester Pantz Pulled Half Way Up My Chest And Driving A Buick? If That's Retirement, Hell No I Ain't Ready!!!!!
Saturday, September 11, 2010, 03:32 PM
"If money is your hope for independence you will never have it. The only real security that a man will have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience, and ability."
-Henry Ford
Blue Deck Shoes, White Levi's And Madras Shirts, A Blue Sport Coat And A Pink Crustacean...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8__EwAT ... xt_from=ML
Whither Goes European Banking?
Is There Yet Another Shoe To Drop In The Millipedian Financial Crisis?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/be ... fts-bonds/
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/12/fine ... -dems.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-1 ... -debt.html
Lookie Here! Bonds been up and stocks been down. I bin thinkin' that'll change seasonally and cyclically. So i moved some money around.... I'm thinking of these as rented positions and I'm running a cognitive and subjective trailing stop based on holidays and elections and the ebb and flow of the market. This is not without risk. Stay tooned.....
Saturday, August 7, 2010, 03:32 PM
Now that the value of information has gotten to be about zero, there's an overload, and I think what's gonna be the end result is the value of expertise is gonna go to infinity. Because it's harder and harder for people to digest all these inputs, let alone make sense out of them, let alone translate them into investment decisions.
- Wilbur Ross, CNBC, Dec. 1, 2009
Earning Interest And Clipping Coupons In Bonds And Cash Is Always Better Than Watching Stocks Go Down.... Unless You Can Short.
Friday, July 2, 2010, 10:14 PM
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
--Herbert Spencer
Pretty really Serious links....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... -1932.html
Last week, forty Republican Senators and one Democrat blocked action on extended unemployment benefits. This week, three GOP Senators were absent for the roll call but the end result was the same -- no relief for the long-term unemployed. By the time those 41 lawmakers return from their Fourth of July recess, 2 million Americans will have spent their final unemployment check. Republicans, however, will not shed crocodile tears over the pain inflicted on the jobless. Instead they will cheer every vote cast that diminishes, delays or denies help to the 31 million Americans idled by this Grave Recession. During the Bush administration, those same Republicans supported policies that are the proximate causes of our economic turmoil -- deficit financing of tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation of the financial market place and the de-industrialization of America in the name of free trade. But rather than accept responsibility for their own disastrous policies, the GOP started a vendetta against the jobless. Republican attacks on America's jobless are neither random acts of meanness nor the ravings of a lunatic fringe. They are hostile acts in a partisan strategy. By attacking the powerless, Republican lawmakers hoped to align their party with the powerful, capture control of the next Congress and, ultimately, win back the White House.
Occasionally, Republican law makers telegraph their deep disdain for the unemployed. Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) did so with his one-man filibuster against extended unemployment. Senator John Kyl (R-TX) suggested unemployment acted as "a disincentive for them to seek new work." Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) felt the jobless should be drug tested in order to qualify for unemployment insurance. And Congressman Dean Heller (R-NV) used the word "hobos" to demean those on unemployment.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rick-sloa ... 33217.html
Everything looks awful. And the recent drop and unemployment numbers are fear inspiring. But we've had 9 outta the last ten days down and everybody is leaning the same direction. Look for an oversold bounce/ counter trend move sooner rather than later. It'll sting if you are in cash or bonds. But ask, "Has anything changed? Or is this part of the markets not being simple or easy?" A trend is a trend until it isn't, and I'll have to have a reason before I allocate back into equities. Cash and bonds fer now....
Wednesday.....
That stung..... Smokin' hot upward day....
But on low volume and ya gotta look at it in perspective....
Stay tooned....
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