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Saturday, August 7, 2010, 03:32 PM
Now that the value of information has gotten to be about zero, there's an overload, and I think what's gonna be the end result is the value of expertise is gonna go to infinity. Because it's harder and harder for people to digest all these inputs, let alone make sense out of them, let alone translate them into investment decisions.
- Wilbur Ross, CNBC, Dec. 1, 2009
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Earning Interest And Clipping Coupons In Bonds And Cash Is Always Better Than Watching Stocks Go Down.... Unless You Can Short.
Friday, July 2, 2010, 10:14 PM
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
--Herbert Spencer
Pretty really Serious links....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... -1932.html
Last week, forty Republican Senators and one Democrat blocked action on extended unemployment benefits. This week, three GOP Senators were absent for the roll call but the end result was the same -- no relief for the long-term unemployed. By the time those 41 lawmakers return from their Fourth of July recess, 2 million Americans will have spent their final unemployment check. Republicans, however, will not shed crocodile tears over the pain inflicted on the jobless. Instead they will cheer every vote cast that diminishes, delays or denies help to the 31 million Americans idled by this Grave Recession. During the Bush administration, those same Republicans supported policies that are the proximate causes of our economic turmoil -- deficit financing of tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation of the financial market place and the de-industrialization of America in the name of free trade. But rather than accept responsibility for their own disastrous policies, the GOP started a vendetta against the jobless. Republican attacks on America's jobless are neither random acts of meanness nor the ravings of a lunatic fringe. They are hostile acts in a partisan strategy. By attacking the powerless, Republican lawmakers hoped to align their party with the powerful, capture control of the next Congress and, ultimately, win back the White House.
Occasionally, Republican law makers telegraph their deep disdain for the unemployed. Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) did so with his one-man filibuster against extended unemployment. Senator John Kyl (R-TX) suggested unemployment acted as "a disincentive for them to seek new work." Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) felt the jobless should be drug tested in order to qualify for unemployment insurance. And Congressman Dean Heller (R-NV) used the word "hobos" to demean those on unemployment.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rick-sloa ... 33217.html
Everything looks awful. And the recent drop and unemployment numbers are fear inspiring. But we've had 9 outta the last ten days down and everybody is leaning the same direction. Look for an oversold bounce/ counter trend move sooner rather than later. It'll sting if you are in cash or bonds. But ask, "Has anything changed? Or is this part of the markets not being simple or easy?" A trend is a trend until it isn't, and I'll have to have a reason before I allocate back into equities. Cash and bonds fer now....
Wednesday.....
That stung..... Smokin' hot upward day....
But on low volume and ya gotta look at it in perspective....
Stay tooned....
So The Fed Left The Punch Bowl Out Too Long An' Wall Street And Real Estate Fell In. And What Ya Knew Was Gonna Happen, Happened. Then The Fed An' The Government Borrowed The Public's Credit Card And Refilled The Punch Bowl. Pourin' Alky Down A Drunk's Throat Never Ends Well. Sobering Up Gets Postponed And Worsened. Don't Stand In Front, Stand To The Side.
Saturday, February 13, 2010, 04:33 PM
My philosophy for trading is -- understand why something is happening economically and then look at the price action. If both of them works, go trade. If one of them is starting to fall apart, get out. And if both fall apart, get short,
-- Dennis Gartman
Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com. Check it out!
Hell, good enuf to make it two weeks inna row.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy7vnwXg ... r_embedded
Larry Faucette on congas
Freddie Smith on sax
Buddy Miles on drums
Mike Finnigan on keyboards
Mike was the SF connection. I used to see his band play at a club in Mill Valley.
Also on the LP were Jack Cassady/Stevie Winwood, coupla guys who also played good music elsewhere at the time.
The guitar player was pretty good too. The first time I saw him, he headed the bill at Winterland with Albert King and John Mayall's Blues Breakers. Two sets each starting at 8:00 and JH played until 2:15...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/st ... al-policy/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... amp;pos=11
http://www.newsweek.com/id/233519
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/be ... ing-gifts/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... hIeftRVyvE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... Xq1qk1ll9M
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/ho ... al-crisis/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/in ... -expected/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 53714.html
The Obama administration's starting out with health care reform instead of financial reform was a fuck up of enormous proportion. Newsweek's current riff is that it was necessary but still wrong. That news has been out a while. So health care reform is bogged down big time. And Too Big To Fail financials are fewer names but even bigger entities with the taxpayer an unwilling participant in the fun and games. Obama signed on to Bush's program and left the suspects and persons of interest in place and buried them in taxpayer's money. Which they passed around while the jobs just kept disappearing....
So Main Street sees Wall Street getting healthy enough on Main Streets money to be back to the big bonuses spread among fewer names while Main Street continues south. We are still losing jobs at a time when we need well over 100,000 new jobs a month just to stay even. Estimates for this year project 133,000 new jobs a month. That leaves 30,000 new jobs a month to eat into a very real 17% un and underemployed employment rate. Expect the "official" unemployment rate to float between 9.5% and 10% this (election)year as new persons will step on to the pier as someone falls off the other end...
So Intel and Apple posted good reports for the fourth quarter and they and other great names rolled over and started south mid January. Check out the chartz.
The weekly chart shows perspective, the daily chart shows where we are in the domestic big cap market, the 401a funds show where my choices stand with/against the markets...
The suspicion has been that Europe is in worse shape than the US for about a year and a half. Now it is starting to show. The markets are herky jerky between fear of serious bad things and the pronouncements that there exists the firm intentions of the EU to seriously consider that something needs to be done and that they may consider that it may become necessary for them to think about who should do it, if they can do it, and are willing to do so.
In the meantime, commodities and stocks go down and it appears that money is leaving stocks and going to bonds and that money is leaving bonds and going to cash and that money is leaving commodities and going someplace...
I'm standing to the side in the 401a. And it ain't an easy choice. All last year, the stock market made "V" shaped recoveries from every rough patch and maybe it will do it again. But that was last year and this is this year. And bonds are promises to pay and not the most comfortable place to be when promises and the future are suspect.
Still, business will be done. It's just that the developed nations are buried under debt and going no place for the time being. It is the emerging nations that will be doing business, but less of it and under some uncertainty.
So for now it looks like rips and dips in stocks as the emotions of fear and greed will jerk the market around the existing trend. And the trend that I see is down.
So I consider that 401a money is not real nimble and that I have to respect the trend.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/jo ... e-to-last/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/be ... more-51652
Oh, yeah... 100% GIC and Bonds until further notice.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... MJFT2dMyIU
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... amp;pos=10
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35367044/ns ... swer_desk/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/pr ... -earnings/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35406859/ns ... d_economy/
Stay tooned....
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