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Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, January 16, 2015, 02:31 PM
"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate."
~Jesse Livermore
Democracy means equality. Which means know nothing, faith (fantasy) based delusions have just as much standing as the scientific communities accepted beliefs. Until the numbers favor one position or the other... So check out what I found on that hippie dippy pinko left wing publication, Bloomberg...
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014- ... on-record/
When I was at Berkeley, the religious scholars used to come out at lunch time and torment the holy roller saving souls at Sproul Plaza, pointing out mistranslations, errors, and misunderstandings in his version of the good book.
Reality always trumps faith. The time element can be frustrating, though.
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Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, January 9, 2015, 12:35 PM
Day-to-day, anecdotal impressions can matter in investing, like seeing all the Prius and hybrid cabs in Chicago and the alternative-fuel trucks in and around Chicago, and wondering, “how can this not impact crude oil demand at some point ?” Hence, we had zero weighting in Energy the last two years for clients.
-- Brian Gilmartin
Behind the curtain...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... sian-heart
And aren’t we all tired of those who claim to know the answer to life, death and the creation being so fucking sensitive about their knowledge? If I knew the answer to it all, if I thought I understood the wishes of the author of the universe and was privileged to understand what happens to us after death, the last thing I would be is all prickly and defensive. ‘Mock me all you like,’ I’d cry. ‘Go on, laugh your socks off, paint crude daubs, make mocking films. They pass me by as the idle wind which I respect not.’
Stephen Fry
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/01/11 ... dle-class/
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... tz-2015-01
http://pragcap.com/public-payrolls-stil ... employment
http://vimeo.com/116485717
http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week- ... nd-market/
Monday...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -price-war
Leaked From AlJazeera...
http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-a ... bdo-2015-1
http://www.psmag.com/navigation/health- ... ots-92793/
Tuesday....
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-oba ... ris-2015-1
First Ya Gotta Get A Buncha People To Agree...
This is a chart of many of the funds available to my 401...
This is the same chart, but referenced against the Lord Abbett fund. I'm out the LA Fund until further notice. I still believe that Europe will have to and eventually will enact a QE program and stocks will launch upward. But looking at the last 5 months, I'm leaning toward getting outa the way and waiting to actually see something. I'll give away already being there when it happens to avoid standing there in the cold rain and snow. waiting for it to happen. Stay tooned.
Wednesday...
Fuck Congress...
http://www.maliceforall.com/2015/01/the ... r-economy/
Thursday...
http://vimeo.com/116909650
Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Thursday, January 1, 2015, 01:24 PM
“By far the biggest problem for professionals in investing is dealing with career and business risk: protecting your own job as an agent. The second curse of professional investing is over-management caused by the need to be seen to be busy, to be earning your keep. The individual is far better-positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals.”
- Jeremy Grantham
New Years morning and I'm about half way through my pitcher of Mimosas after breakfast. (Straight gin onna rocks last night, this is my way of getting vitamin C this morning. Being retired allows me to pursue my hobbies...) Reading about Walschaerts valve gear. I'm a gear head. Pretty much have been since 8 yrs old.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walschaerts_valve_gear
This is what put the "Choo" in "Choo Choo"....
Worth the time... If ya got the time....
http://www.businessweek.com/features/20 ... ousy-list/
I got no use for the Dead and their nonprofessional antics.... but when they were on, they were awesome....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9AQiF5fFFI&feature=em-subs_digest
I may do some gear changing and re-arranging of the 401. Based in part on this. (The thesis and the individual{Grundlatch} are recognized by the guys whom I pay to run my retirement money...)
http://www.businessinsider.com/gundlach ... ast-2015-1
As per above, this Sat, I'm outa the Lord Abbett Small Cap Fund and outa the Met Life Stable Value Fund Monday. The money will go into the American Bond Fund. The bond fund's return is well ahead of the Stable value fund and will continue to do better. The LRSYX fund will be under pressure from redemptions which will screw with investment strategy. Best to be clear while this works itself out. Staying put elsewhere.
http://www.businessinsider.com/polands- ... ack-2015-1
Sunday...
http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com ... t-strategy
Your politicians and mine at work....
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic ... om-reality
Wednesday...
Pop the hood and see what underlies the paint and chrome...
http://vimeo.com/116196983
Drive me UP THE FUCKIN" WALL!!!!!
http://www.salon.com/2014/12/21/why_so_ ... s_partner/
Thursday...
Ya don't get to choose the world you live in... I grew up when part of being a good citizen was being prepared for imminent thermonuclear war (food in the house, always keep the car at least half full of gas to evacuate to the mountains if necessary, CD {Civilian Defense} symbols on every AM radio in every car...) This is this era's version.
http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-i ... ege-2015-1
Slow Motion Trainwreck.... Reagan is still dead and trickle down doesn't mean what they told you it did....
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/201 ... ts-failing
More Unner Da Hood....
http://vimeo.com/116290225
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Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, December 26, 2014, 01:01 PM
“You can’t develop a portfolio strategy around endless possibilities. You wouldn’t even get out of bed if you considered everything that could possibly happen….. you can use history as one tool for shaping reasonable probabilities. Then, you look at the world of economic, sentiment and political drivers to determine what’s most likely to happen—while always knowing you can be and will be wrong a lot.”
- Ken Fisher
Friday...
http://pragcap.com/three-things-i-think ... ed-in-2014
Saturday
Coupla three four things here.... It's been a busy year for me for all the wrong reasons. There have been health issues in the family and this is in part why I've spun off the bulk of my retirement funds to some pro's; so I could look away if I had to or wanted to. I have mostly looked away from those accounts and that is all right... as long as I still keep an eye on them in some measure. I'm still an active trader and that account absorbs a fair amount of my time. The result has been less time spent on my 401 than usual since it is now a small portion of my retirement funds. But that has resulted in my being slow to move on two outstanding issues in the account; the American Funds EuroPac and Lord Abbot small cap funds.
Overseas has pretty much lagged domestic big time and the American Funds are huge funds that have a lot of money to place. It is hard for them to invest in small pockets of value in down markets. They have lagged the domestic funds and despite having lightened up there, I probably should have lighter there than I was. One of the three funds in the small/mid cap area has been awful. The other two have been fine. Again, I would have liked to have been lighter faster there than I was. It cost me some gains. I'd rather have been in the other stock funds, but even the bond mutual funds, which were supposed to be horrible this year but weren't, would have been a better place to be than the two poorly performing stock funds... The Stable Value fund has been a worse place to be than the bond funds. Not tracking reality vs expections cost me some performance here when I sought safety at various times this year. Lesson noted...
This is a new year and time to change some things. This year, I'm going to keep a closer watch on the 401 funds.
At some point, there will be a serious market correction. It'll sting. But you can ride out corrections. What you don't want to ride out are bear markets. I expect the first but not the second. For now, I'm staying heavy in stocks.
At some point in the future, Europe will have to do a QE like we did. It will get exceedingly ugly politically and that may make it ineffectual and delay the recovery and protract it way beyond the time it should have taken. But if it works like it did here, the stock market will lead big time whatever recovery they do have, so I'm staying equal weighted in the American EuroPac funds for now.
At some point the yelling that is undoubtedly taking place at Lord Abbett will have an effect and the fund will start to perform again. I can't hurt the fund's feelings by ignoring it, and they will not make up the losses out of their pocket, but performance is performance. So I got a small portion of my portfolio in a "tracking position". At some point I'll boost that up into a full position.
Or not. I will keep a closer eye on this portfolio and work it harder...
For now..... Stay Tooned....
Fewer things to feel comfortable about...
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/end-cons ... z3MeJSHaqC
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-i ... it-2014-12
Think about the Olympics. There is no mystery in running, jumping, diving, gymnastics, etc. Everyone knows what perfection looks like. It's just basics. And the very best competitors in the world get the very best coaches in the world to work incessently with them on basics as long as they hope to excell.....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/th ... investing/
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/27 ... one-loves/
http://priceonomics.com/stepping-off-th ... te-bridge/
Sunday...
Sounds like a union to me.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/busin ... .html?_r=1
World War Two brought my mom to San Francisco from Colorado because there were jobs here. Four brothers, including my dad, chose California as the final destination when they were discharged from the armed forces post WW II and gravitated to the Bay Area instead of going back to Utah... That's how I came to be a San Franciscan.
http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/sf-housing/
Long but worth the read.... If you've got 20 hours...
http://www.businessweek.com/features/20 ... ousy-list/
http://www.businessinsider.com/illinois ... is-2014-12
http://vimeo.com/115525761
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/ ... es_28.html
Monday...
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/29/buy-europe/
Tuesday...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/oi ... bad-spain/
Jes' Anudder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Pipefitter....
Friday, November 21, 2014, 01:24 PM
“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river, and he’s not the same man.”
-- Heraclitus
Moby Grape did not survive survive the era.There were 100 chewed up and spit out for every success in the late 60's...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_FlNwQlBmU
But ya can find remnants that will lift your soul when you least expect it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNqPwL2jbhU
I wuz drunk the day my Mom got outa prizen
I wuz lookin' out da winnow at da raaaiin....
But before ah could get to da station in mah pickup truck,
She got run over by a damned ol' traaaiinn.
Nah, I'm sober, but my Mom is dead and it IS raining outside da winnow as I write this....
It was on my 21st birthday that I bought my first bike. That happened to be the start of the rainy season and the start of a particularly bitter Winter. That year we had snow and four straight days in the low 30's and below freezing early evening until mid morning in SF. I thought bike wear was a leather jacket and will power. It was not until April that I discovered that riding longer than 15 minutes was not an extreme test of endurance. The rainy day and the polar vortex of this Winter makes me think about riding. And about my plan to buy the fastest street legal BMW, Kawi or Aprilia Superbike (200 Hp) money could buy to celebrate my retirement and my new knees. But the surgery didn't go like I hoped. So, instead of buying runnin' shoes, I'm buying an old man's walker... Arranged shipping today. Bummer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shCQpp95uhw
I still want a well set up Aprilia.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg9N6YVrzQI
The hair on my eyeballs stands on end when I hear a very serious bike give that bad girl howl...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBIca9548Uw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFwS_CQHjqk
http://www.sportrider.com/sportbikes/vi ... YHj3qP-DES
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/21 ... r-clients/
http://pragcap.com/3-no-brainer-policie ... -implement
The Kinda Things I Track For the 401...
www.marketchess.com/2014/11/23/weekend-market-film-session-112314-video/
http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week- ... mment-7712
Monday...
I Always Said,"It's Not Like Ya Can Go Broke Selling Alcohol Or Sex"...
This is scary....
http://www.businessinsider.com/many-mil ... er-2014-11
Holy Fuck!!!?!?!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-2 ... asino.html
http://time.com/money/3600211/gao-repor ... tt-romney/
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/win-argument-market/
"But I'm too late to invest after the rise/What if right after I put my money in, it goes down?"
Here's a list of reasons;
http://www.rbadvisors.com/images/pdfs/t ... scared.pdf
Here's the solution; There's always reasons. Do what you think is right and if it turns out to have been wrong, stop doing it.
Protect your capital from both types of losses; Big All Of A Sudden Losses like being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and gradual persisent small losses like bing in cash or something that doesn't keep up with inflation. Both kinds of losses get you to the same place eventually.
Tuesday...
http://marketchess.com/2014/11/25/late- ... tuesday-2/
Almost indescribably French...
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-ves ... ks-2014-11
I've already had a month of
EARLY BLACK FRIDAY WEEK
LIMITED TIME ONCE IN A LIFE TIME
SUPER ULTRA LOW
PRE-HOLIDAY HOLIDAY PRICES!!!!!!
Bloomfield/Butterfield... Didja hear about the time I saw the Butterfield show from about 10 feet eye to eye?
Wednesday, November 12, 2014, 08:26 PM
Free Your Mind...Your Ass Will Follow.
-- George Clinton
Onna counta cuz....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps3x-_JdIeg
and w/o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNkNuVRhkks
This week's Joe...
https://s3.amazonaws.com/pickup-radio/audio/cream-rises-to-the-top.mp3
http://jbonamassa.com/features/2014/bon ... 20magazine
Some of the Bay Area unions locals have recently had a close encounter of the IRS kind... The locals structured their 401 plans as per consultations w/ the IRS and it was good. Until it wasn't. Whether the IRS felt that they needed to be working on something big during the duration of the financial crash, or there was a regime change and a new outlook, or it just happened, we had an extended period where allocation adjustments were not allowed while the IRS reviewed, ruminated, and reflected... So this week we finally started to emerge from that. We reorganized our 401a to the IRS's approval (again) and set in place the new mandatory contribution plus the allowable levels of voluntary contribution. Functionally, there is little difference; the changes as viewed from the participants point of view are minor. I spoke on the floor much as I speak here in my blog, mostly this time about the mandatory level of contribution... But...
There's more to be said and I gotta think about what and how. You gotta click on "If yer a newcomer to the blog" to get started. But watch this space for what comes next...
It is work to do the blog, but I've been writing so long about High End Hi Fi and then Motorcycles and Money, that it is part of my nature. Then a friend and co-worker dropped by at the last union meeting and mentioned that because he was following me back in 2008 and because I'd gone to 95% cash in the 401, he wrestled with it a coupla weeks and then followed me into the GIC. And a month later, the bottom dropped out of the market and he saved himself big time. Made My Day.
Monday...
http://www.businessinsider.com/kotok-sp ... 20-2014-11
http://vimeo.com/112107487
Tuesday...
Little by Little...
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-thu ... ge-2014-11
Jes' Anuder Old Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter
Friday, November 7, 2014, 12:55 PM
“We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest.
We must learn to sail in high winds.”
-- Aristotle Onassis
Theme For The Election; Emotion As Expressed By Electric Guitar...
Take a breath. Path of history and all that... Glacial. But still....
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-i ... ns-2014-11
It was Tuesday after lunnch, sidereal time.... (Odd Bodkins)
And I was reading this thing about Trolls...
http://gizmodo.com/the-first-internet-troll-1652485292
So I called my kid. I go a ways back onna net, but my kid goes farther. (10 years ago I realized my kid was going bald faster than I was...) I asked when a troll went from being a post meant to engage someone in an innocent interchange all for the purpose of leading to a flame war, to an exceedingly unpleasant lurker under a bridge onna web ala Billy Goat Gruff. We kicked it around. (17 Year Old Blonde Surf Gurl wants help photographing a cat. [She doesn't want to take pictures of a cat she doesn't have, isn't 17 or blonde, doesn't surf, and isn't a girl. Or gurl.]) That's a troll. Like behind a boat. Just another case of click and paste use of a term that you think you know what it means. Stand pipe, engineers boots, rear sets, infer/imply, and all that... Just trying to set the record straight.
And if that sends you into a frenzy, flaming me with post after post about how I'm six different kinds of MF, well I can't help it if you jump in the boat while the tackle box is still closed.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2014 ... al-history
Wednesday...
Cruz in'... Not what it sounds like...
http://theoatmeal.com/blog/net_neutrality
Appearances are everything..... until they are not.
http://retractionwatch.com/2014/11/12/k ... etraction/
Thursday...
A country that avoids debt for infrastrucure is like a family that never buys a home or a new car or a college education. Or borrows @ 1% to maintain its savings...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... of-europe/
Been There, Done That. But Ya Can't Prove Nothin'... So Knock It Off With The Empty Threats.
Saturday, September 27, 2014, 04:23 PM
“It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice. There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia.”
-- Frank Zappa
Between Live Allman Bros @ The 'mo In SF, Live Broadcasts, And The King Biscuit Flour Power Hour, I Heard A Lot Of The Full Allman Bros Band (Duane/Berry) Back Inna Day. EXCEPTIONAL!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqNFwx6QQgY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvH4yA6uflo
Sometimes Something Happens That Is Against Everything You Hope To Stand For And Is Anethema To How you Hope To Live. That Doesn't Mean You Get Out Of Doing It Nor That You Can Do It With Less Than A Full Heart And Total Dedication. It Is What It Is, Not What Ya'd Like It To Be....
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-figh ... rld-2014-9
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-th ... sis-2014-9
Obama saw himself as the anti Dubbya, a domestic president. It's not working. What he needs to be is a competent Dubbya. That's not working so well either. The 60 Minute show was about a politician more than a leader. And this is from a 1960's/70's UC Berkeley kinda guy.....
I'm Stayin' Way Aggressive.. Chartz To Follow....
Tuesday...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-3 ... -line.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-2 ... risis.html
Never get comfortable w/ a number. There's always a way to view it differently...
http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/09/the-wag ... cerpt.html
JUST ABOUT REALLOCATED SOME STOCKS TO CASH...
Not yet. End of quarter, seasonal issues, global issues, Ebola issues, Still way up Year over Year, I got not a huge amount to protect inna 401. moved some from and under performing fund to a better performing one... I'll keep an eye onnit...
As I Told My Cousin, "Don't Even Think About Askin' An Old Retired Guy How He's Doin' Unless You Have Something To Eat, Something To Drink, And A Place To Sit Down...
Saturday, September 13, 2014, 05:42 PM
"If, after hearing my songs, just one human being is inspired to say something nasty to a friend, or perhaps to strike a loved one, it will all have been worth the while."
-- Tom Lehrer
Can't Top This Truth With Any Lie, No Matter How Outrageous...
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/tom-lehrer#27vepjj
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPq3SEteEJc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIKGV2cTgqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoEVPtVk9nE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0Wa_tnvyag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQfaRSeaMZQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf-eIgFJg4w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZE518O2QRo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puu4cYfohgs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN0qvNhtGhM
Monday...
The US was the main driver of the world economy Post WW2.
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-wa ... end-2014-9
In fuckin' credible....
http://newsok.com/why-an-urban-outfitte ... le/5342281
In that era, where lynching was an accepted risk of being involved with civil rights down South, and West Coast Draft Centers and the Berkeley Campus was anti establishment radical hippie pinko shit, and they called out the ' Guard as a matter of form, No one expected a massacre at staid middle America middle class college campus. They followed it up with two more shooting deaths at Jackson State. And it lit a fire for a generation.
Check it out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings
We were out to change the world, trying to save the heart and soul of America and death or incarceration was Nixon administrations' answer. Nixon had called the protestors "bums", and Allison Krause's father, a conservative middle class mainstream man (Allison was a 19 year old student in good standing at Kent State, one of four who were shot, two for protesting, two for walking in the wrong place) appeared on national TV to state in a voice cracking under the emotion,"My child was not a bum." You could hear gears grinding as some previously closed minds opened up. To say the nation was tense was an understatement. God It Pisses Me Off to this day... That Nixon et al went down in flames didn't redeem much about the darker aspects of the era.
Wednesday...
Just to put our coupla three bucks a year contracted raise over the last three years in perspective...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/upsho ... &abg=0
Thursday...
Amazing run; not unprecedented, but getting out there. Still....
I've been way long stocks. Make while you can. This opportunity will go away like they all do.
Purple Haze All Around ....
Friday, August 29, 2014, 11:48 AM
“When you’re young, you look at television and think, There’s a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that’s not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That’s a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It’s the truth.”
— Steve Jobs
Darkness and Despair...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc8H6USGR90
And Now For Something Completely Different...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvhYqeGp_Do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhuMLpdnOjY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIzRGHuJt_I
From Wikipedia...
Lehrer's song "The Old Dope Peddler" is sampled in rapper 2 Chainz's song "Dope Peddler", on his 2012 debut album, Based on a T.R.U. Story. The following year, Lehrer said he was "very proud" to have his song sampled "literally sixty years after I recorded it." Lehrer went on to describe his official response to the request to use his song: "As sole copyright owner of 'The Old Dope Peddler', I grant you motherfuckers permission to do this. Please give my regards to Mr. Chainz, or may I call him 2?"
WELL, THERE'S GOOD NEWS, AND THERE'S BAD NEWS...AND THERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS...AND THEREIN RESIDES A TALE... This is a big one, people...see below
Thursday, July 3, 2014, 10:55 PM
Every so often, I find myself thinking that I've got something to say. Things like the "Mutual Fund Investing" riff on my web page. And 'jes Annuder Old Broked Down Pipefitter" on the blog here. "Easy Now?" part of this post, looks like more of the same. It has changed by the day. it's down to mostly pluperfect subjuntive polishing inna last day or two. I'll repost the final version above in a new post in a day or two. Serious shit... “Buy the ticket, take the ride."
-- Hunter S. Thompson
I've Been Getting Some Serious Work Done On My Retirement... this last week or two. Yeah, I retired the first of Sept 2013. But therein lies the story alluded to, above.
This Is A Work In Progress .....
Easy Now?
Hot Tuna... Easy Now
EASY NOW? Well, yeah.... the probabilities look.... well, complicated. Here's Where I'm Comin' From...
I've got this spreadsheet... I've had it for a while. It was my touchstone regarding my retirement for the last coupla three/four years. It was in large part an automated matrix of Years/Age x Sources Of Income. I had started a small business back in the 80's just as the IBM Personal Computer was introduced...
NERD ALERT!!! Seriously... Skip This Part.... There were a coupla local stores that would have sold me a PC if they had one. No one did. Hell, one store had one blank floppy disk and everybody else was outa stock. So I bopped down to the IBM corporate headquarters where this eye candy model in a business suit next to a spotlit display of a single nonoperational computer on a pedestal tried to send me up to the 12th floor to sign up with a Corporate New Account Representative. Not likely. (NTFL) So I went home and bought by mail order, a new IBM PC with the latest motherboard (256K bytes memory), dual double sided half height 360K floppy drives, the latest DOS (2.01) and one of the new amber CRT monitors, a dot matrix printer with tractor feed, and a daisy wheel printer, etc... Later, I went back to the local store and convinced the guy onna floor to sell me the only blank floppy disk available in the city since I could use it, and he might as well have no floppies as one. From there, within a coupla years I was using a word processor and Lotus 123 to create my own automated business software.
...so my spreadsheet was set up to automatically tally my prospective post retirement income for current and future years, by monthly cash pension and Social Security payments, and by theoretical income from my investments/savings. I also had a table of my W-2 incomes for the last 10 years set off to the side to give me a reference for the monthly and yearly income, and the matrix was done multiple times on the page with various rates of return on my savings. The whole spreadsheet was interactive and linked to my personal financial spreadsheets, allowing me to update it instantly and track it real time.
The end result was that when I was no longer able to work in 2013, my spreadsheet told me that my pension/Social Security income would give me a livable income and that given a 4% return on my savings, if I withdrew only the income, I could get all the way to what I'd earned in 2010, paying the bills, allowing some discretionary spending, and allowing me to draw principal as required for some inflation protection...
Kool. It was not like I had a choice. Regardless, I was set. I retired. But I was only sure about the here and now.... Where would I stand as the years went by? Would my wife and I be living in a cardboard box in ten or twenty or thirty years? Would I be able to leave the kids anything? Should my wife or I die well before the other one did, how would the survivor get by?
My Union pension is fixed. What about inflation? How fast would my Union pension's contribution to my income shrink? How much other income would be required to replace it and how soon? Can I spend a dollar on fun stuff today with a clear conscience, or will every dollar spent hasten the arrival of the day that I try to convince myself that living with the kids was my plan for my wife and I all along? Will I have to speed up my rehab from my latest knee surgery so I can get a job? Am I doomed to a future with an orange apron in it?
Passive acceptance is not my preferred mode of operation, finding out what's going on and dealing with it is. So I started to get some answers. I began with this table...
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
As per the Actuarial Life Table for 2009 from the Social Security Administration, if ya started with a theoretical 100K males, by the time you get to 63 years, my age at my retirement, you'd have 82.6K men left standing. The nominal life expectancy at 63 is 19 years. That gives an average mortality at 82 years old. But that also means that of the 82K men standing with me when I was 63, 41K of them are expected to still be standing when we all hit 82. Hopefully I'll be one of the ones standing. If I am, I'll still need income and with hopefully a lotta good years to go I'll need a handfull. Let's say that my health and luck are good. If so, I have a 1 in 4 chance of still being alive at 89 and still needing income. That's not an outlandish bet. Running out of money and needing to get a job in my 90's worrys me a lot more than leaving my kids with more to inherit than I expected to leave them if I die in my late 70's. So I have to plan for a 30 year long retirement without a brick wall at 92, just in case I make 100 plus years old.
Next I needed an income and expense matrix, including pension income, assets, investment income, taxes, inflation, expenses, a discretionary budget, a bequest number, and all this by a timetable. And I need it in a format that will allow me to track it so I can see if it is working, and give me direction as to what to do to keep it working in the face of the unexpected. If I had this, then I would have a plan.
Well, as per noted elsewhere in my blog, I've sought out investment professionals to handle part of my retirement income and they've been busy doin' what they do. Such as working up the plan I just described. I've been grinding on the finer details for a week...
I'll stop here for now. Mostly. So Far, So Good. I'm retired and the near future is well in hand. And, I've got what I need to evaluate whether I can continue to live comfortably in my current lifestyle, do some fun retired type things, help the kids out along the way, leave them something, and not have to move us old folks in with them for the last decade or two. Hell, my wife and I barely survived the first go round of living with the kids when they were teenagers. The good news is that I can do all that good stuff above. The bad news is that It's not a slam dunk. My pension covers about 55% of our expenses this year. Given historically based projections of inflation, my expenses will be multiplied by about 2.3 times by the time I'm 82. My pension is projected to be 26% of our income at that point, without counting for increased medical coverage costs. If I hit 90, I'll be needing 3 times today's income to maintain my standard of living and my pension is projected to cover only 19% of that cost, again not counting for increased medical coverage cost. The numbers are surprising... and the base reality is not encouraging. My Union Pension is fixed, my medical coverage comes out of the gross sum, and medical costs will grow, reducing my monthly pension payment. Currently only about half our our pension income will be adjusted for inflation. On top of that, Social Security is motivated to fudge on the cost of living adjustment so as to delay going broke, leaving everyone falling slowly behind every year. And, just to pile on when I'm down, my wife's pension's cost of living adjustment is based on the first year's number. That number, (a neglible amount) will follow her to the end of her days... A VERY tricky bit of fine print! And on top of that, she has not yet drawn her Social Security. When she does, her Social Security will be reduced over what she should get because she has a state pension rather than a private one. Bummer. So I'm going to have to do the heavy lifting of our retirement income cost of living adjustments myself. The good news is it looks like I can do it with my savings and investments. I like this plan they came up with. I can make this work.
But It Was A MAJOR Slap Upside The Head to see the numbers and see how much the future will rely on sucessful financial planning and investments.
Uhhh. You got this under control for yourself...right?
STAY TOONED.
And That's How "I Saw The Light"....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvbLJ6TGepI
"Cuz "Death Don't Have No Mercy In This Land"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bb8l8MWA7yk
An' 'Cuz It Feels Too Good To Stop...I'll "Keep My Lamps Trimmed And Burning"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA6mobt0ydw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H76fbU4csRI
RIP George Duke. (Check Out "I Love The Blues, She Heard My Cry." This Was His First Release Post His Time W/ Zappa, A Sampler For What Lay Ahead.)
I Been Listening To Stanley Clarke for 40 years. I Plan To Continue...
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Jes' Anudder Old Broked Down Retahred Union Pipefitter.....
Friday, June 20, 2014, 11:25 AM
Ahm jes' anudder ol' broked down retahrd union pipefitter.
I retired in September of 2013 after 40 years in the trade, five years after this picture was taken. At the time, there was only one retired pig inna pichur. Now there would be two...
I had started actively managing my 401 in 2004, after leaving it untended and with the minimum contribution since its inception in 1991. I was too busy raising a family, building America, and riding, racing and writing about motorcycles to pay any attention to saving for retirement. After all I had my Defined Benefit Plan and an IRA or two. What more could I need? Big mistake. I had contributed the minimum amount to the Defined Contribution Plan and left the funds in the default Balanced Pooled Fund. But between 2000 to 2003, I had to straighten out a coupla my IRA's after the dotcom-9/11 financial crash had crushed them, and as an afterthought, I then applied the same kind of evaluation to my 401 account and to my defined benefit pension fund. I found both to be in desperate straights. I was able to help turn both around. The story of both my IRA's and 401 are in part on my website.
Once I was able to get decent returns from my 401, I increased my contributions until I was maxed out and started to save some serious coin and to make serious returns for my retirement. It worked out really well... So far.
I have a nice income from my defined benefit pension plan and Social Security. Today. But my pension plan has no cost of living adjustment.
"What Is Hip Today Might Become Passe'"
-- Tower Of Power
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN8pWdZhVaM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vauqRuvzVgs
Only 30% of my pension income, the Social Security part, adjusts for inflation. Add my wife's pension and Social Security into the mix and we're a little short of 50% of our pension income being inflation protected. The continued wellbeing of my wife and I is dependent on how I handle my retirement savings.
Since retirement, I've given almost all of my 401/IRA balance over to professionals. But not all. I've kept $10K in my Union 401 account to provide a benchmark for the professionals and to keep the 401 account open should I decide to take management of the funds back. Here's where I have the money allocated, how I've done this year and since I started managing my 401(table), and how I've done since I started managing my 401 post retirement in 2013 (chart).
Note that this is my personal 401 account, managed for and by me, as I see fit, for Where my head is at and my perceived needs. I have Social Security and a defined benefit pension for regular income and I am looking to generate serious returns on my retirement savings for future use when my fixed pension income falls seriously behind my cost of living inflated needs. I am aggressive in nature but with three generations (wife and I, kids, and grandkids) to think about, I gotta make the right moves. I can stand the volatility of this approach, the gains are proven, and it is a plan. It's my plan..
I've made a copy of the Excel spreadsheet I use to track and manage my 401 available to download on my website. If you are not in my Local, the spreadsheet can be adapted to other 401s and other mutual funds by someone with a modicum of Excel experience.
I post here what I read that I find of significance or interest. I allocate funds within the 401 between aggressive and conservative allocations as circumstance and inclination require based on what I read and some professional level subscription data. Running the blog keeps me honest with myself. Putting it in writing makes sure I really have a grip on the handle.
Here's what I see onna chartz..... Thinkin' 'bout upping the stocks vs bonds back up closer to 100%...
BLEAHH.....
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-ira ... lks-2014-6
One of the financial blogs I follow had a post onna Harley electrical bike prototype. I have been catching up on my gearhead reading and it is plain where we are heading in transportation and motorsports. It is going high tech and green. Think 1950's black bakelite tabletop phone vs iphone/Galaxy. It Is What It Is and with good reason but lookie here...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/06/li ... /#comments
I just can't imagine rolling thunder... The electric race bikes at BEST give a whistle like a jet fighter on glide path...
So I stuck my oar inna Comments...
...
Eco Boost three and four cylinder motors and CVT and Stop/Start Idle/Stop motors everywhere?
2014 Harley 500cc and 750 cc beginner bikes and now an electric bike?
Honda crossbreeding scooters (NM 4 and DM-01) with their next generation motorcycles ?
...
It Is The End Of The World As We Know It (Or The Weekend) And I Feel Fine.....
Knee surgery is getting smaller inna rear view mirror...
Saturday...
http://www.businessinsider.com/draper-d ... tes-2014-6
Speaking Of Divided States...
http://www.businessinsider.com/should-i ... art-2014-6
http://www.businessinsider.com/sunni-re ... raq-2014-6
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/0 ... id-assets/
Sunday...
Monday...
http://www.businessinsider.com/markit-f ... 014-2014-6
Boom And Bust; One Decade Finds You As A Master Of The Universe...And The Next One Finds You Out Onna Street.
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-st- ... mer-2014-6
It's easy to be comfortable with the world as you thought it was. It is less easy to be comfortable with the way it has changed...
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-sch ... ato-2014-6
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