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Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, January 16, 2015, 02:31 PM
"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate."
~Jesse Livermore
Democracy means equality. Which means know nothing, faith (fantasy) based delusions have just as much standing as the scientific communities accepted beliefs. Until the numbers favor one position or the other... So check out what I found on that hippie dippy pinko left wing publication, Bloomberg...
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014- ... on-record/
When I was at Berkeley, the religious scholars used to come out at lunch time and torment the holy roller saving souls at Sproul Plaza, pointing out mistranslations, errors, and misunderstandings in his version of the good book.
Reality always trumps faith. The time element can be frustrating, though.
  ( 3 / 288 )
Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, January 9, 2015, 12:35 PM
Day-to-day, anecdotal impressions can matter in investing, like seeing all the Prius and hybrid cabs in Chicago and the alternative-fuel trucks in and around Chicago, and wondering, “how can this not impact crude oil demand at some point ?” Hence, we had zero weighting in Energy the last two years for clients.
-- Brian Gilmartin
Behind the curtain...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... sian-heart
And aren’t we all tired of those who claim to know the answer to life, death and the creation being so fucking sensitive about their knowledge? If I knew the answer to it all, if I thought I understood the wishes of the author of the universe and was privileged to understand what happens to us after death, the last thing I would be is all prickly and defensive. ‘Mock me all you like,’ I’d cry. ‘Go on, laugh your socks off, paint crude daubs, make mocking films. They pass me by as the idle wind which I respect not.’
Stephen Fry
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/01/11 ... dle-class/
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... tz-2015-01
http://pragcap.com/public-payrolls-stil ... employment
http://vimeo.com/116485717
http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week- ... nd-market/
Monday...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -price-war
Leaked From AlJazeera...
http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-a ... bdo-2015-1
http://www.psmag.com/navigation/health- ... ots-92793/
Tuesday....
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-oba ... ris-2015-1
First Ya Gotta Get A Buncha People To Agree...
This is a chart of many of the funds available to my 401...
This is the same chart, but referenced against the Lord Abbett fund. I'm out the LA Fund until further notice. I still believe that Europe will have to and eventually will enact a QE program and stocks will launch upward. But looking at the last 5 months, I'm leaning toward getting outa the way and waiting to actually see something. I'll give away already being there when it happens to avoid standing there in the cold rain and snow. waiting for it to happen. Stay tooned.
Wednesday...
Fuck Congress...
http://www.maliceforall.com/2015/01/the ... r-economy/
Thursday...
http://vimeo.com/116909650
Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Thursday, January 1, 2015, 01:24 PM
“By far the biggest problem for professionals in investing is dealing with career and business risk: protecting your own job as an agent. The second curse of professional investing is over-management caused by the need to be seen to be busy, to be earning your keep. The individual is far better-positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals.”
- Jeremy Grantham
New Years morning and I'm about half way through my pitcher of Mimosas after breakfast. (Straight gin onna rocks last night, this is my way of getting vitamin C this morning. Being retired allows me to pursue my hobbies...) Reading about Walschaerts valve gear. I'm a gear head. Pretty much have been since 8 yrs old.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walschaerts_valve_gear
This is what put the "Choo" in "Choo Choo"....
Worth the time... If ya got the time....
http://www.businessweek.com/features/20 ... ousy-list/
I got no use for the Dead and their nonprofessional antics.... but when they were on, they were awesome....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9AQiF5fFFI&feature=em-subs_digest
I may do some gear changing and re-arranging of the 401. Based in part on this. (The thesis and the individual{Grundlatch} are recognized by the guys whom I pay to run my retirement money...)
http://www.businessinsider.com/gundlach ... ast-2015-1
As per above, this Sat, I'm outa the Lord Abbett Small Cap Fund and outa the Met Life Stable Value Fund Monday. The money will go into the American Bond Fund. The bond fund's return is well ahead of the Stable value fund and will continue to do better. The LRSYX fund will be under pressure from redemptions which will screw with investment strategy. Best to be clear while this works itself out. Staying put elsewhere.
http://www.businessinsider.com/polands- ... ack-2015-1
Sunday...
http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com ... t-strategy
Your politicians and mine at work....
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic ... om-reality
Wednesday...
Pop the hood and see what underlies the paint and chrome...
http://vimeo.com/116196983
Drive me UP THE FUCKIN" WALL!!!!!
http://www.salon.com/2014/12/21/why_so_ ... s_partner/
Thursday...
Ya don't get to choose the world you live in... I grew up when part of being a good citizen was being prepared for imminent thermonuclear war (food in the house, always keep the car at least half full of gas to evacuate to the mountains if necessary, CD {Civilian Defense} symbols on every AM radio in every car...) This is this era's version.
http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-i ... ege-2015-1
Slow Motion Trainwreck.... Reagan is still dead and trickle down doesn't mean what they told you it did....
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/201 ... ts-failing
More Unner Da Hood....
http://vimeo.com/116290225
 ( 2.9 / 1052 )
Jes' Annuder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter And His 401 Defined Contribution Plan....
Friday, December 26, 2014, 01:01 PM
“You can’t develop a portfolio strategy around endless possibilities. You wouldn’t even get out of bed if you considered everything that could possibly happen….. you can use history as one tool for shaping reasonable probabilities. Then, you look at the world of economic, sentiment and political drivers to determine what’s most likely to happen—while always knowing you can be and will be wrong a lot.”
- Ken Fisher
Friday...
http://pragcap.com/three-things-i-think ... ed-in-2014
Saturday
Coupla three four things here.... It's been a busy year for me for all the wrong reasons. There have been health issues in the family and this is in part why I've spun off the bulk of my retirement funds to some pro's; so I could look away if I had to or wanted to. I have mostly looked away from those accounts and that is all right... as long as I still keep an eye on them in some measure. I'm still an active trader and that account absorbs a fair amount of my time. The result has been less time spent on my 401 than usual since it is now a small portion of my retirement funds. But that has resulted in my being slow to move on two outstanding issues in the account; the American Funds EuroPac and Lord Abbot small cap funds.
Overseas has pretty much lagged domestic big time and the American Funds are huge funds that have a lot of money to place. It is hard for them to invest in small pockets of value in down markets. They have lagged the domestic funds and despite having lightened up there, I probably should have lighter there than I was. One of the three funds in the small/mid cap area has been awful. The other two have been fine. Again, I would have liked to have been lighter faster there than I was. It cost me some gains. I'd rather have been in the other stock funds, but even the bond mutual funds, which were supposed to be horrible this year but weren't, would have been a better place to be than the two poorly performing stock funds... The Stable Value fund has been a worse place to be than the bond funds. Not tracking reality vs expections cost me some performance here when I sought safety at various times this year. Lesson noted...
This is a new year and time to change some things. This year, I'm going to keep a closer watch on the 401 funds.
At some point, there will be a serious market correction. It'll sting. But you can ride out corrections. What you don't want to ride out are bear markets. I expect the first but not the second. For now, I'm staying heavy in stocks.
At some point in the future, Europe will have to do a QE like we did. It will get exceedingly ugly politically and that may make it ineffectual and delay the recovery and protract it way beyond the time it should have taken. But if it works like it did here, the stock market will lead big time whatever recovery they do have, so I'm staying equal weighted in the American EuroPac funds for now.
At some point the yelling that is undoubtedly taking place at Lord Abbett will have an effect and the fund will start to perform again. I can't hurt the fund's feelings by ignoring it, and they will not make up the losses out of their pocket, but performance is performance. So I got a small portion of my portfolio in a "tracking position". At some point I'll boost that up into a full position.
Or not. I will keep a closer eye on this portfolio and work it harder...
For now..... Stay Tooned....
Fewer things to feel comfortable about...
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/end-cons ... z3MeJSHaqC
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-i ... it-2014-12
Think about the Olympics. There is no mystery in running, jumping, diving, gymnastics, etc. Everyone knows what perfection looks like. It's just basics. And the very best competitors in the world get the very best coaches in the world to work incessently with them on basics as long as they hope to excell.....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/th ... investing/
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/27 ... one-loves/
http://priceonomics.com/stepping-off-th ... te-bridge/
Sunday...
Sounds like a union to me.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/busin ... .html?_r=1
World War Two brought my mom to San Francisco from Colorado because there were jobs here. Four brothers, including my dad, chose California as the final destination when they were discharged from the armed forces post WW II and gravitated to the Bay Area instead of going back to Utah... That's how I came to be a San Franciscan.
http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/sf-housing/
Long but worth the read.... If you've got 20 hours...
http://www.businessweek.com/features/20 ... ousy-list/
http://www.businessinsider.com/illinois ... is-2014-12
http://vimeo.com/115525761
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/ ... es_28.html
Monday...
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/12/29/buy-europe/
Tuesday...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/oi ... bad-spain/
Jes' Anudder Ol' Broked Down Retahrd Pipefitter....
Friday, November 21, 2014, 01:24 PM
“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river, and he’s not the same man.”
-- Heraclitus
Moby Grape did not survive survive the era.There were 100 chewed up and spit out for every success in the late 60's...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_FlNwQlBmU
But ya can find remnants that will lift your soul when you least expect it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNqPwL2jbhU
I wuz drunk the day my Mom got outa prizen
I wuz lookin' out da winnow at da raaaiin....
But before ah could get to da station in mah pickup truck,
She got run over by a damned ol' traaaiinn.
Nah, I'm sober, but my Mom is dead and it IS raining outside da winnow as I write this....
It was on my 21st birthday that I bought my first bike. That happened to be the start of the rainy season and the start of a particularly bitter Winter. That year we had snow and four straight days in the low 30's and below freezing early evening until mid morning in SF. I thought bike wear was a leather jacket and will power. It was not until April that I discovered that riding longer than 15 minutes was not an extreme test of endurance. The rainy day and the polar vortex of this Winter makes me think about riding. And about my plan to buy the fastest street legal BMW, Kawi or Aprilia Superbike (200 Hp) money could buy to celebrate my retirement and my new knees. But the surgery didn't go like I hoped. So, instead of buying runnin' shoes, I'm buying an old man's walker... Arranged shipping today. Bummer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shCQpp95uhw
I still want a well set up Aprilia.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg9N6YVrzQI
The hair on my eyeballs stands on end when I hear a very serious bike give that bad girl howl...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBIca9548Uw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFwS_CQHjqk
http://www.sportrider.com/sportbikes/vi ... YHj3qP-DES
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/21 ... r-clients/
http://pragcap.com/3-no-brainer-policie ... -implement
The Kinda Things I Track For the 401...
www.marketchess.com/2014/11/23/weekend-market-film-session-112314-video/
http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week- ... mment-7712
Monday...
I Always Said,"It's Not Like Ya Can Go Broke Selling Alcohol Or Sex"...
This is scary....
http://www.businessinsider.com/many-mil ... er-2014-11
Holy Fuck!!!?!?!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-2 ... asino.html
http://time.com/money/3600211/gao-repor ... tt-romney/
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/win-argument-market/
"But I'm too late to invest after the rise/What if right after I put my money in, it goes down?"
Here's a list of reasons;
http://www.rbadvisors.com/images/pdfs/t ... scared.pdf
Here's the solution; There's always reasons. Do what you think is right and if it turns out to have been wrong, stop doing it.
Protect your capital from both types of losses; Big All Of A Sudden Losses like being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and gradual persisent small losses like bing in cash or something that doesn't keep up with inflation. Both kinds of losses get you to the same place eventually.
Tuesday...
http://marketchess.com/2014/11/25/late- ... tuesday-2/
Almost indescribably French...
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-ves ... ks-2014-11
I've already had a month of
EARLY BLACK FRIDAY WEEK
LIMITED TIME ONCE IN A LIFE TIME
SUPER ULTRA LOW
PRE-HOLIDAY HOLIDAY PRICES!!!!!!
Bloomfield/Butterfield... Didja hear about the time I saw the Butterfield show from about 10 feet eye to eye?
Wednesday, November 12, 2014, 08:26 PM
Free Your Mind...Your Ass Will Follow.
-- George Clinton
Onna counta cuz....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps3x-_JdIeg
and w/o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNkNuVRhkks
This week's Joe...
https://s3.amazonaws.com/pickup-radio/audio/cream-rises-to-the-top.mp3
http://jbonamassa.com/features/2014/bon ... 20magazine
Some of the Bay Area unions locals have recently had a close encounter of the IRS kind... The locals structured their 401 plans as per consultations w/ the IRS and it was good. Until it wasn't. Whether the IRS felt that they needed to be working on something big during the duration of the financial crash, or there was a regime change and a new outlook, or it just happened, we had an extended period where allocation adjustments were not allowed while the IRS reviewed, ruminated, and reflected... So this week we finally started to emerge from that. We reorganized our 401a to the IRS's approval (again) and set in place the new mandatory contribution plus the allowable levels of voluntary contribution. Functionally, there is little difference; the changes as viewed from the participants point of view are minor. I spoke on the floor much as I speak here in my blog, mostly this time about the mandatory level of contribution... But...
There's more to be said and I gotta think about what and how. You gotta click on "If yer a newcomer to the blog" to get started. But watch this space for what comes next...
It is work to do the blog, but I've been writing so long about High End Hi Fi and then Motorcycles and Money, that it is part of my nature. Then a friend and co-worker dropped by at the last union meeting and mentioned that because he was following me back in 2008 and because I'd gone to 95% cash in the 401, he wrestled with it a coupla weeks and then followed me into the GIC. And a month later, the bottom dropped out of the market and he saved himself big time. Made My Day.
Monday...
http://www.businessinsider.com/kotok-sp ... 20-2014-11
http://vimeo.com/112107487
Tuesday...
Little by Little...
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-thu ... ge-2014-11
Jes' Anuder Old Broked Down Retahrd Union Pipefitter
Friday, November 7, 2014, 12:55 PM
“We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest.
We must learn to sail in high winds.”
-- Aristotle Onassis
Theme For The Election; Emotion As Expressed By Electric Guitar...
Take a breath. Path of history and all that... Glacial. But still....
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-i ... ns-2014-11
It was Tuesday after lunnch, sidereal time.... (Odd Bodkins)
And I was reading this thing about Trolls...
http://gizmodo.com/the-first-internet-troll-1652485292
So I called my kid. I go a ways back onna net, but my kid goes farther. (10 years ago I realized my kid was going bald faster than I was...) I asked when a troll went from being a post meant to engage someone in an innocent interchange all for the purpose of leading to a flame war, to an exceedingly unpleasant lurker under a bridge onna web ala Billy Goat Gruff. We kicked it around. (17 Year Old Blonde Surf Gurl wants help photographing a cat. [She doesn't want to take pictures of a cat she doesn't have, isn't 17 or blonde, doesn't surf, and isn't a girl. Or gurl.]) That's a troll. Like behind a boat. Just another case of click and paste use of a term that you think you know what it means. Stand pipe, engineers boots, rear sets, infer/imply, and all that... Just trying to set the record straight.
And if that sends you into a frenzy, flaming me with post after post about how I'm six different kinds of MF, well I can't help it if you jump in the boat while the tackle box is still closed.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2014 ... al-history
Wednesday...
Cruz in'... Not what it sounds like...
http://theoatmeal.com/blog/net_neutrality
Appearances are everything..... until they are not.
http://retractionwatch.com/2014/11/12/k ... etraction/
Thursday...
A country that avoids debt for infrastrucure is like a family that never buys a home or a new car or a college education. Or borrows @ 1% to maintain its savings...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... of-europe/
Been There, Done That. But Ya Can't Prove Nothin'... So Knock It Off With The Empty Threats.
Saturday, September 27, 2014, 04:23 PM
“It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice. There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia.”
-- Frank Zappa
Between Live Allman Bros @ The 'mo In SF, Live Broadcasts, And The King Biscuit Flour Power Hour, I Heard A Lot Of The Full Allman Bros Band (Duane/Berry) Back Inna Day. EXCEPTIONAL!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqNFwx6QQgY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvH4yA6uflo
Sometimes Something Happens That Is Against Everything You Hope To Stand For And Is Anethema To How you Hope To Live. That Doesn't Mean You Get Out Of Doing It Nor That You Can Do It With Less Than A Full Heart And Total Dedication. It Is What It Is, Not What Ya'd Like It To Be....
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-figh ... rld-2014-9
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-th ... sis-2014-9
Obama saw himself as the anti Dubbya, a domestic president. It's not working. What he needs to be is a competent Dubbya. That's not working so well either. The 60 Minute show was about a politician more than a leader. And this is from a 1960's/70's UC Berkeley kinda guy.....
I'm Stayin' Way Aggressive.. Chartz To Follow....
Tuesday...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-3 ... -line.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-2 ... risis.html
Never get comfortable w/ a number. There's always a way to view it differently...
http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/09/the-wag ... cerpt.html
JUST ABOUT REALLOCATED SOME STOCKS TO CASH...
Not yet. End of quarter, seasonal issues, global issues, Ebola issues, Still way up Year over Year, I got not a huge amount to protect inna 401. moved some from and under performing fund to a better performing one... I'll keep an eye onnit...
As I Told My Cousin, "Don't Even Think About Askin' An Old Retired Guy How He's Doin' Unless You Have Something To Eat, Something To Drink, And A Place To Sit Down...
Saturday, September 13, 2014, 05:42 PM
"If, after hearing my songs, just one human being is inspired to say something nasty to a friend, or perhaps to strike a loved one, it will all have been worth the while."
-- Tom Lehrer
Can't Top This Truth With Any Lie, No Matter How Outrageous...
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/tom-lehrer#27vepjj
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPq3SEteEJc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIKGV2cTgqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoEVPtVk9nE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0Wa_tnvyag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQfaRSeaMZQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf-eIgFJg4w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZE518O2QRo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puu4cYfohgs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN0qvNhtGhM
Monday...
The US was the main driver of the world economy Post WW2.
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-wa ... end-2014-9
In fuckin' credible....
http://newsok.com/why-an-urban-outfitte ... le/5342281
In that era, where lynching was an accepted risk of being involved with civil rights down South, and West Coast Draft Centers and the Berkeley Campus was anti establishment radical hippie pinko shit, and they called out the ' Guard as a matter of form, No one expected a massacre at staid middle America middle class college campus. They followed it up with two more shooting deaths at Jackson State. And it lit a fire for a generation.
Check it out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings
We were out to change the world, trying to save the heart and soul of America and death or incarceration was Nixon administrations' answer. Nixon had called the protestors "bums", and Allison Krause's father, a conservative middle class mainstream man (Allison was a 19 year old student in good standing at Kent State, one of four who were shot, two for protesting, two for walking in the wrong place) appeared on national TV to state in a voice cracking under the emotion,"My child was not a bum." You could hear gears grinding as some previously closed minds opened up. To say the nation was tense was an understatement. God It Pisses Me Off to this day... That Nixon et al went down in flames didn't redeem much about the darker aspects of the era.
Wednesday...
Just to put our coupla three bucks a year contracted raise over the last three years in perspective...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/upsho ... &abg=0
Thursday...
Amazing run; not unprecedented, but getting out there. Still....
I've been way long stocks. Make while you can. This opportunity will go away like they all do.
Purple Haze All Around ....
Friday, August 29, 2014, 11:48 AM
“When you’re young, you look at television and think, There’s a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that’s not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That’s a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It’s the truth.”
— Steve Jobs
Darkness and Despair...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc8H6USGR90
And Now For Something Completely Different...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvhYqeGp_Do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhuMLpdnOjY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIzRGHuJt_I
From Wikipedia...
Lehrer's song "The Old Dope Peddler" is sampled in rapper 2 Chainz's song "Dope Peddler", on his 2012 debut album, Based on a T.R.U. Story. The following year, Lehrer said he was "very proud" to have his song sampled "literally sixty years after I recorded it." Lehrer went on to describe his official response to the request to use his song: "As sole copyright owner of 'The Old Dope Peddler', I grant you motherfuckers permission to do this. Please give my regards to Mr. Chainz, or may I call him 2?"
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