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New Computer...stay tooned...
Saturday, July 28, 2012, 11:52 AM
Stay tooned while I revise my set up.... In the mean time, I've moved a little from bonds to stocks. This is a window into part of what I'm doing. There's more than this going, but this is food for thought. http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... ming-back/http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... gher-lows/http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... cond-half/I don't like what I see, but the price action DEMANDS that I pay attention and doesn't care about what I like...   ( 3 / 1213 )
Bull Markets Are A Breeze, You Buy, You Hold, The Money Flows In, And You Look And Feel Like A Genius. Bear Markets, You Allocate And Reallocate And Risk And Work Hard For A Hand Full Of Dollars. Oh Well. That's How The Game Is Played.... Victories Are Unimpressive And Sweet! Or So I've Been Told...
Saturday, July 7, 2012, 02:46 PM
Thoughtless risks are destructive, of course, but perhaps even more wasteful is thoughtless caution, which prompts inaction and promotes failure to seize opportunity.
-- Gary Ryan Blair
When The World's Spiraling Down, Save The Best Of What's Still Around... Like Lindley And Cooder.
Saturday, June 23, 2012, 12:50 PM
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
Not That It Can't Continue...Just Not Forever.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/us ... re-buyers/
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/06/1 ... ft-options
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... f=business
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/21/italy-risks/
The BIS (Bank Of International Settlement)was formed in 1930 and acts as a central bank for the world’s monetary authorities. It said extraordinary measures have reduced incentives for politicians and other borrowers to repair balance sheets, and created the illusion that central banks can do much more to stoke growth and redress imbalances. Central bank policy “buys time” in the short term for banks and governments to tackle debt overhangs, the BIS said. European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg last week battled over strategies to contain the debt crisis. Leaders are due to hold a summit on June 28-29, which will be their 19th since the turmoil erupted.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-2 ... -says.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-2 ... -says.html
I'm operating on the basis that the last part of the popping of the tech/real estate bubble is about to occur; the "You postponed it, but you can't escape it phase." Interest rates near zero and money donated to money center banks has bought some time. Now the problems haves to be fixed. Including the debt created in postponing the problems... I'm mostly concerned with the return OF capital, rather than the return ON capital. Watch this insanely aggressive ex motorcycle road racer get prudent.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/wh ... -cuts-7-1/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/wa ... k-to-life/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/middle-cl ... print.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/busin ... .html?_r=1
WED...
Internet Issues..... But the fact that I posted that, means.....
Thursday, May 31, 2012, 03:01 PM
Thursday Not much changed... Lookit da S&P..... Friday, Well... That unemployment report qualifies as a change.... Cash and bonds inna 401 work fo me.... CHECK IT OUT. STAY FLEXIBLE W/ DOUGIE, AND MAKE NO MISTAKE... SOMETIME INNA FUTURE, I WILL GO WAY LONG AGAIN... I DUNNO WHEN, BUT THAT IS THE OTHER SIDE OF BEING 95% CASH/BONDS INTO TODAY's BIG DOWNDRAFT. http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&am ... p;catid=15http://dealbreaker.com/2012/05/warren-b ... ent-ideas/http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/contagionex/Don't think for a minute, that with $150,000,000 on the line, your health and well being might not be onna line right next to it.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-3 ... llion.htmlhttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... s-middles/ 6/4/12 All Bonds And Stable Value. Stay Tooned...  ( 3 / 1153 )
There Is No Point To Making Money In The 401 If After Every Rip, I Give It Right Back On The Next Dip. "Deer In The Headlights" And Passive Acceptance Are Not My Preferred Modes Of Operation....
Saturday, May 19, 2012, 01:07 PM
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
--Herm Albright
Sometimes ya turn yer back onna favorite burger shake and fries and go for some duck breast tangerine ginger Marsala and scallops poached in butter, garlic, and shallots.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4IMMaF7 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jeq-BTGbJKE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-1 ... ising.html
The more I think about the events of the last two weeks, the more I think that we're simply at an all-time low. The meltdown in Europe, the quick 8% savaging of US stocks after a fairy tale Q1, the utter failure of Facebook's IPO to do a single fucking thing for the markets or the retail investing public...it's all just garbage.
J. Brown http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... -time-low/
Useful input. Valuable with a pull date and a limited area of use. No more. To be looked at through the lens of time and experience accepting that we are in a multi variant reality where reality is a process and value is time and personal space variant.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/philjohnson ... bookstore/
I'm not as good nor is it as easy as it looks. I watch for trends to develop and as Rev Shark says, "You try to catch most of the move." Playing the major trends and ignoring the meaningless noise costs me the start and finish of the major moves while I wait to make sure they are for real. The rapid trading restrictions puts me in partial positions for the start of the up trend as I try to reallocate responsibly within the restrictions, and it makes me way too heavy while I try to get out during the down trend. Still, over the last 17 months, I caught part of a 5% up move, avoided most of a down 20% move, caught part of an up 20% move, and I'm holding 10% stocks and going lighter during the current down trend. It's work, but what was scrambling for pennies in front of a steam roller years ago has now morphed into keeping a significant part of my retirement retirement money from taking a substantial hit on these swoosh downs.
"It is not how right or how wrong you are that matters, but how much money you make when right and how much you do not lose when wrong."
-- George Soros
For there's a change in the weather, There's a change in the sea, So from now on there'll be a change in me. There's A Change Inna Market, There's A Change In Me, Gonna Try To Keep A Dollar, Just You Wait And See...
Sunday, April 8, 2012, 03:09 PM
"It is not how right or how wrong you are that matters, but how much money you make when right and how much you do not lose when wrong." -- George Soros
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOIL5Oq ... re=related
Stocks have hit the same levels three times in January, March, and April. And the news cycle sounds bad. Too much risk for no gains.
I'm reducing exposure to stocks by 50%. Mostly done... but still cutting back as restrictions allow.
The broad market does not correlate tightly with the funds in the 401 (less VIFSX), but it tells a less noisy story.
Stay tooned....
Your Life Is A One Act Play And You Are The Author. I'm Writing My Life As An Adventure and A Light Hearted Comedy. What Choo You Doin' Wit' Your Lifes?
Saturday, February 18, 2012, 02:43 PM
It has always been my view that Technical Analysis is an art, and like art, there are a lot of really bad examples of it out there.
--Rev Shark
Damn!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7r8uxe_ ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68FP359S ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v3PfqEv ... re=related
I GOT to start listening to something beside my Wolfgang's Vault downloads.....
So as of Nov 2011, I was 25% in bonds and 75% in stocks in my 401. I was a mile out there in the face of darkness and despair, listening to Jeff Miller of "A Dash Of Insight". Jeff was saying, "Pay Attention to the data..." "Pay attention to what should happen..." "Government works THIS way..." "Don't extrapolate your fears...".
I decided that there was a significant chance that this data driven assessment was a correct assessment and with a rigorous money management, I could make some money at relatively minimal risk.
Today, I'm down to 13% bonds and 87% stocks. Much of the change is because while bonds haven't gone down much, stocks have gone up a lot. It worked out right for me and it was self reinforcing. I set my allocation strongly in the aggressive direction. I was prepared to admit I was wrong, reverse my strategy, and sell out of the position if it went against me. I was also prepared to accept my stock/bond allocation automatically shifting in the right direction from an already aggressive position as good things happened.
It is said that there is an optimum proportion for a portfolio based on this and that and that you should re balance your portfolio every so often based on this and that so that you get it right back where it is supposed to be. It is also said to "Buy 'em when they're cryin' and sell 'em when they're yellin'".
I lean toward the latter. I'm just a poor ol' pipefitter with one client and one family to answer to, unencumbered by too many expectations and too much conventional knowledge. I just know that stocks and bonds go up and down, and if you work hard enough to have more of what is going up and less of what is going down, and that if you lean harder on not doing anything stoopid than on being too smart, you make money. Kinda what a self directed plan is all about.
I don't spend any time on looking for the one good decision/fund that will be the only thing I'll ever have to do, or the way to avoid having to deal with an ever changing and complicated world. That would be a waste of time.
Still running uphill to the right from downhill to the left; still worth more than it used to be a short time ago. Ride this Slow Train until it turns around........ And It Will.
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