Sitting Onna Dock Of The Bay.... 

The charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different.
-- Aldous Huxley

Chartz and Table Zup @

Check it Out... ... put-backs/ ... ble-ahead/ ... &pos=7 ... 3FNswDlTkw ... er-valued/ ... gage-mods/ ... -it-seems/ ... lled-them/ ... al_estate/ ... LH3zOdh4ro ... amp;pos=10 ... ithm/all/1

Panic Low, Bounce Offa The (Generational?) Bottom, Recovery To The Pre Panic Down Trend Line, Support At The 20 Day Moving Average, Overhead Resistance @ 1110 And The 200 Day Moving Average. I Expect Market To Break One Way Or The Other... I'm In Cash/Bonds Until I Figure Out Which... ... more-52719 ... money.html ... _commented

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 476 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 528 )
I Feel Strongly About It Both Ways.... 

"The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet."
-- William Gibson

Chartz and Table Zup @

I never understood why everyone considered John Mayer a great or even a good guitarist, because I only heard him on his own material. After hearing these cuts, I hear an excellent rock guitarist stuck with a serviceable voice for soft rock, locked into his pop mentality, trying to get out and only able to do it on other peoples material... ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related

Stay tooned. Some chart work and reading ongoing, soon to appear here..

We've bounced from the Jan/Feb low about half
the way back on declining volume... Not much to be confident about there...

Still all cash and bonds....

[ view entry ] ( 410 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 544 )
So The Fed Left The Punch Bowl Out Too Long An' Wall Street And Real Estate Fell In. And What Ya Knew Was Gonna Happen, Happened. Then The Fed An' The Government Borrowed The Public's Credit Card And Refilled The Punch Bowl. Pourin' Alky Down A Drunk's Throat Never Ends Well. Sobering Up Gets Postponed And Worsened. Don't Stand In Front, Stand To The Side. 

My philosophy for trading is -- understand why something is happening economically and then look at the price action. If both of them works, go trade. If one of them is starting to fall apart, get out. And if both fall apart, get short,
-- Dennis Gartman

Chartz and Table Zup @ Check it out!

Hell, good enuf to make it two weeks inna row. ... r_embedded

Larry Faucette on congas
Freddie Smith on sax
Buddy Miles on drums
Mike Finnigan on keyboards

Mike was the SF connection. I used to see his band play at a club in Mill Valley.
Also on the LP were Jack Cassady/Stevie Winwood, coupla guys who also played good music elsewhere at the time.
The guitar player was pretty good too. The first time I saw him, he headed the bill at Winterland with Albert King and John Mayall's Blues Breakers. Two sets each starting at 8:00 and JH played until 2:15... ... &pos=4 ... al-policy/ ... amp;pos=11 ... ing-gifts/ ... &pos=4 ... hIeftRVyvE ... &pos=2 ... Xq1qk1ll9M ... al-crisis/ ... -expected/ ... 53714.html

The Obama administration's starting out with health care reform instead of financial reform was a fuck up of enormous proportion. Newsweek's current riff is that it was necessary but still wrong. That news has been out a while. So health care reform is bogged down big time. And Too Big To Fail financials are fewer names but even bigger entities with the taxpayer an unwilling participant in the fun and games. Obama signed on to Bush's program and left the suspects and persons of interest in place and buried them in taxpayer's money. Which they passed around while the jobs just kept disappearing....

So Main Street sees Wall Street getting healthy enough on Main Streets money to be back to the big bonuses spread among fewer names while Main Street continues south. We are still losing jobs at a time when we need well over 100,000 new jobs a month just to stay even. Estimates for this year project 133,000 new jobs a month. That leaves 30,000 new jobs a month to eat into a very real 17% un and underemployed employment rate. Expect the "official" unemployment rate to float between 9.5% and 10% this (election)year as new persons will step on to the pier as someone falls off the other end...

So Intel and Apple posted good reports for the fourth quarter and they and other great names rolled over and started south mid January. Check out the chartz.

The weekly chart shows perspective, the daily chart shows where we are in the domestic big cap market, the 401a funds show where my choices stand with/against the markets...

The suspicion has been that Europe is in worse shape than the US for about a year and a half. Now it is starting to show. The markets are herky jerky between fear of serious bad things and the pronouncements that there exists the firm intentions of the EU to seriously consider that something needs to be done and that they may consider that it may become necessary for them to think about who should do it, if they can do it, and are willing to do so.

In the meantime, commodities and stocks go down and it appears that money is leaving stocks and going to bonds and that money is leaving bonds and going to cash and that money is leaving commodities and going someplace...

I'm standing to the side in the 401a. And it ain't an easy choice. All last year, the stock market made "V" shaped recoveries from every rough patch and maybe it will do it again. But that was last year and this is this year. And bonds are promises to pay and not the most comfortable place to be when promises and the future are suspect.

Still, business will be done. It's just that the developed nations are buried under debt and going no place for the time being. It is the emerging nations that will be doing business, but less of it and under some uncertainty.

So for now it looks like rips and dips in stocks as the emotions of fear and greed will jerk the market around the existing trend. And the trend that I see is down.

So I consider that 401a money is not real nimble and that I have to respect the trend. ... e-to-last/ ... more-51652

Oh, yeah... 100% GIC and Bonds until further notice. ... &pos=4 ... MJFT2dMyIU ... amp;pos=10 ... swer_desk/ ... -earnings/ ... d_economy/

Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 487 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 421 )
This Week, The Unemployment Rate Number Is Down To 9.7% on 20,000 Additional Jobs Lost. They Are Just Numbers Unless You Understand How They Were Generated And What They Do And Don't Mean... 

Our activity as investors is not to try to identify tops and bottoms - it is to constantly align our exposure to risk in proportion to the return that we can expect from that risk, given prevailing evidence.
-- John Hussman

Chartz and Table Zup @

I never got around to sewing these two tracks together... maybe soon. In the meantime... ... r_embedded

All bonds and GIC in the 401a. Make no mistake, I'm being defensive yet again

Is this the establishment of a downtrend or a quick shakeout like June of last year? Will I see 1025 before I see 1100, or will the market reverse on the way to new 12 month highs? I dunno. But I judge the risk of missing out on a possible spike up that is too fast to climb aboard to be less than the risk losing money riding a possible downtrend into losses.....

It's about asset allocation and risk management. ... amp;pos=14 ... d_economy/ ... &pos=2 ... d_economy/

Good Day. Does it mark the end of the down trend? Or is it a oversold bounce? Coupla more days will tell the tale....

Still all cash and bonds in the 401a...

More later

[ view entry ] ( 433 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 542 )
"Saving Souls from Buy and Hold" for about fifteen years now. -- Rev Shark 

In general, your target is not to beat the market. It is to beat zero. As I have written for years, the investors who win in this market are the ones who take the least damage.
-- John Mauldin

Chartz And Table Zup @

Ninety seven percent corporate bonds (American Funds Bond/RBFFX) and Met Life GIC in my 401a.
'Nuf said fer now...

Stay tooned, I'll have more to say later this weekend/week....... ... ork_times/ ... al_estate/ ... RsJycboEUE ... vironment/ ... &pos=4 ... ck_check=1 ... &pos=9 ... RsJycboEUE

Sunday Eve

Monday Eve; Low Volume Bounce That's Gonna Soon Fail or The Market Turns Back Up Into 52 Week Highs Again?......Tick Tick Tick... ... o-default/ ... n8uHc.dmcc ... -to-power/ ... o-default/ ... nable-gap/ ... &pos=4

Thurs Eve

All the way out of stocks in my 401a. The down trend is pretty much been established; There is a fast closing window on re-establishing the up trend. Next level of support is in the 1025 to 1030 range. If we close below that Friday or Monday, it'll be real ugly real quick.....

Once we hit 2010, we rolled over, stuttered for a coupla three four days, bounced into resistance, and rolled over hard. I was too cautious last year and I left a lot of gains on the table. What cost me gains last year appears to have protected my capital this year. I'm down wid dat.....

[ view entry ] ( 379 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 565 )
Down And Locked In A Struggle To The Bitter End With A Virus Since Late Last Week.  

The four most dangerous words in investing are, "This time it's different."
-- Sir John Templeton

No Chartz Or Tablez Until Next Sat.

Haven't had the energy to do much besides sleep and be sick. Still, I went to 16% stock/84% bonds/GIC Friday.

It's not a bad place to be at all under the circumstances.

Stay tooned and watch for signs of recovery.

Me, not the market. I think the path is clearer for me than the market.

Seeya here.


Down to 3% Stocks/ 97% Bonds and GIC By This EVE.... ... re-blog-2/ ... &pos=1 ... amp;pos=10 ... 38933.html ... ite_house/

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 406 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 494 )
Another Year, Another Chance To Shine. Yee Hah!!!  

[ view entry ] ( 464 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 525 )
Yes.... I'm back. Between the holidays and family and work and fun and just plain goofing off and getting my daily adult requirement of sitting and staring, I've blown away two/three weeks of time. Back inna traces agin, par'ner. 

When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldier.

Excerpt From
The Young British Soldier
By Rudyard Kipling

Chartz and Table Zup @ for '09

Lemme get it together and be totally caught up by next week.

meanwhile, back at the ranch..... ... rossroads/ ... big_money/ ... al_estate/ ... ork_times/ ... d_economy/

[ view entry ] ( 358 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 522 )
AoxoMoxoA... Palindrome Or Conundrum? Threat Or Menace? Juvenile Jackanapes? Or Is It Just Retibulent Praecidualism? 

For a substantial portion of the American business and professional class, a book entitled "Life Without Lawyers" must surely conjure some of the same feelings evoked in faithful readers of the Harlequin romances, a sort of vicarious fantasy filled by the joy of liberation from burdens, strictures, and anxieties that have come to define quotidian existence. Such people are, in my experience, called clients.
-- Charles N.W. Keckler,

Chartz And Table Zup @

Seeya Raht Here Later This Weekend....


[ view entry ] ( 898 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 578 )

[ view entry ] ( 724 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 560 )
Turkey Samich Heaven.... 

Surprise, surprise, surprise!
-- Gomer Pyle

Chartz and Table Zup @

Another Kick Ass Cover Of A Kick Ass Eddie Cochran Song.... Click On 20 Flight Rock

Click It!!

Three year weekly chart. We just had two weeks where we opened up, went up , and finished the week badly. We've done it before during this rally and then gone higher. But valuations are higher and we are coming to the end of the year, and this market is the most hated rally in memory for a reason. I've been overly cautious for much of the year and I'll be right about it sometime. So the idea will be not to get caught too far extended when it does roll over....

The first three days of the week were up and I pretty much lightened up on stocks in my 401a and went to cash and bonds. I really lightened up in my IRA's and trading account.

It worked out well when I wandered out late in the AM Friday and saw what had happened over Thanksgiving Day. It was all about Dubai and some overdue whackage. I dodged the downdraft sleeping off Thanksgiving and lit up the screens near the top of the bounce. I had time to read enough to develop some ideas about what I wanted to do. So I bought some stocks halfway down the last red bar and some more stocks at the bottom of the bar. I gotta plan...

Stay Tooned. More to come this weekend....

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch... ... -1,00.html ... f=business ... e-wealthy/ ... tdown.html ... _business/ ... ll-hidden/ ... op+stories ... le1380944/

[ view entry ] ( 497 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 570 )
The Holiday Season Starts With Thanksgiving. If You have Looked Over The Edge As Many Of Us Have, You Know That Every Yesterday, Today, And Tomorrow Is a Gift. Get The Most Out Of Them And Spread The Largesse Around. Have A Kick Ass Thanksgiving....  

Excuses change nothing but make everyone feel better.
-- Mason Cooley

Chartz And Table Zup @

Goin Down..... ... re=related

Lookie Here....

Check out this 3 year weekly chart on the S&P. We established a downtrend in late '07 and then went into a precipitous cascade down starting in October '08. The freefall quickly slowed into a sickening dive that ended in March '09. That was a huge oversold panic drop that led to markets and equities priced for the end of time by the end of '09.
You don't need inventory or employees going into the end of time so businesses got really lean really sudden and the reduced revenues from people who still had jobs, savings, or credit, went straight to the bottom line. There were profits to report. The Fed and the Treasury cranked up the presses and flooded the world with cash at 0%. Nobody wanted to fund businesses or buy real estate so the money went into liquid (financial and commodity) paper assets. Everything got a bid. The markets went up on low volume and in an atmosphere of fear. As markets went up, participants were dragged in kicking and screaming, one at a time, moving the markets up more. Wash,rinse, repeat... It is still ongoing...

The weekly trend is up and continues up. There have been consolidations and corrections, but if you weren't long, you were wrong. I am now pretty much long stocks pretty much late in the year and pretty late in the move...

Check out this 8 month daily chart. The trend is still up, but we have had a coupla touches of the uptrend line with relaunches from there. We've also had a major reset at the end of October. The technicals still look good and Monday we gapped up hard in the AM. The economy hasn't mattered since March. Someday it will matter again. The longer it doesn't, the sooner it will. The reset was a first crack in the wall. The almost daily confirmation that the Fed and Treasury have the economy on a high pressure force fed diet of free cash and is aware of the risk of slowing the flows for even a moment is keeping what launched the economy off the bottom in place. It is The Infinite Intervention vs The Great Unwind at the start of an election year. The risks are huge. I reduced my exposure to stocks Friday and I may do so again even with the markets up.

When it's late and the party is really really wild, ya gotta edge toward the door whether you can hear the sirens yet or not....

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch... ... sHAD0w1egE ... &pos=4 ... id/3633323 ... of-the-us/

Why I've been in too much cash/bonds and not not enough stock... ... final.html ... ssweekcom/ ... &pos=7 ... world.html ... tisP2sqI2I ... ork_times/ ... &pos=1 ... -failures/

These Links Help You To Understand What I See.... ... eally-bad/ ... round.html ... s-soaring/ ... -on-trade/ ... ap-condos/ ... americans/ ... e-wealthy/ ... ll-hidden/ ... t-veteran/ ... 2009-11-24

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 493 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 534 )
I'm Gonna Bop Into The Local Woolworths An' Pick Up A Skate Key An A Handfulla Church Keys For The Be In At The Park This Weekend.... 

Some people regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look on it as a cow they can milk. Not enough people see it as a healthy horse, pulling a sturdy wagon.
—Winston Churchill

Chartz and Table Zup @

Too Big To Fail; It Ain't Workin' Out like Ya'd Think.....

Spin Yer Down Home MidWestern Salt O Da Earth Head Around.... ... tml?sub=AR ... e-sharing/ ... ood-songs/ ... thinkable/ ... -buy-hold/ ... amp;pos=13 ... &pos=6 ... tm?cnn=yes ... S_5nNfZ9WM ... s-plummet/ ... &pos=2 ... big_money/ ... 1964-2009/ ... l_finance/ ... ZgGg448K3E ... FrABqiPBHI ... amp;pos=14 ... BXE1cFSiIw ... n_turmoil/


On Wall Street, Unemployment Is A Lagging Indicator.....
On Main Street, Unemployment Is A Leading Indicator..... ... more-43777

Embarrassing and Pathetic" ... g-bailout/ ... -overseas/
Sez It All.... ... id/3646069 ... onomy.html ... -stimulus/

On this weekly three year chart, I'm looking at possible resistance on the downtrend line.

On this daily 8 month chart, I'm looking at repeated drops to support on earnings announcements followed by steep uptrends. Lately I see an up first two weeks of the month and down last two weeks of the months. I'm also seeing a drop through support and and testing resistance. That will resolve soon and determine what I'll do with the 401a. I'm 70%/30% stocks/bonds. At this late date it's got more risk that I'm comfortable with, but asset allocation and risk management means seeking return and matching risk and reward. We'll see..... ... &pos=3 ... &pos=4 ... &pos=5 ... of-the-us/

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 718 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 559 )
My Website Has The Hood Up And Code Layin' All Over Everywhere For A Week As The Host Transmogrifies The Servers From Coal/Water Wheel power To Nuclear/Solar Cogen. The COFGBLOG Is Live During This Time... 

Money was invented so we could know exactly how much we owe."
—Cullen Hightower

No Current Chartz And Tablez @ For A Week..Or So.

But there will be some to be had here.... ... ily59.html ... d_economy/ ... l_finance/

Later This Week End; Using Perfcharts to Plan 401a Asset Allocation...

[ view entry ] ( 535 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 527 )
Holloween... And The Stock Market Does A Face Plant. 

Yesterday is a canceled check; tomorrow is a promissory note; today is the only cash you have -- so spend it wisely.
-- Kay Lyons

Chartz And Table Zup @

I'm All Hunkered Down. I'm almost outa almost all stocks; see my chartz and tablez on my site. I'm filing outa the RERFX in an orderly manner. For all that it is an off shore fund, It sure tracks US equities closely. I'd sure like to see a counter trend in the future to feel better that it was a good alternative if the US markets are goin' down. Bonds are another problem. More this weekend.

This could get a a lot uglier, real quick....
Cut 8 "Paper Money"

That said, I'm not in a bad space; I'm still running 11% a year returns since the hall straightened out the 401a options. I coulda done a lot better this year. Can't win 'em all. But I can live with winning most of them.


Technical Stuff;
First two chartz;
S&P 500
Broken uptrend lines
No areas of consolidation support/resistance
Bear Market Bounce? We'll find out.

Third chart
Most Loved tech and momentum play.
Red circles are start of earnings reports
A is an uptrend off the bottom with a hiccup.
B is a consolidation going into earnings.
C is a steeper uptrend off good earnings.
D is consolidation going into earnings.
E is a spike after good earnings and then running into something bad.

I've posted links to what I'm reading and thinking about. ... ation.html ... g02NI0x4wA ... lpEiqrgpQ# ... ng-strong/ ... &pos=5 ... 2009103022 ... vember.htm

Fundamentals and technicals align....

McClatchy's inquiry found that Goldman Sachs:....
The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman. ... t-on-tbtf/ ... _business/ ... R4KXaGwxd8 ... le1343977/ ... H420091030 ... tm?cnn=yes ... &pos=1 ... _business/ ... ss/page/2/ ... tm?cnn=yes ... le1343977/ ... print.html ... 26?sp=true ... th_11.html ... W1nX0i4L40 ... g-to-fail/ ... ing-banks/ ... more-42942 ... t-america/ ... -the-buck/ ... CVGLt3daN8

Stay Tooned. More onna way....

[ view entry ] ( 538 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 526 )
Must Be Gettin' On Later In the Year.... I Find Myself Planking Salmon And Searing Steak Inna Cold And Dark. Real Manly Adventure With The Flavor Of White Hot Coals And Ice Cold Gin.  

Retail sales themselves are the best indicator of consumer sentiment as no device peers so deeply into the recesses of the human soul as the cash register.
--Howard Simons

Chartz And Table Zup @

Or They Will Be When I Can Get On To The 401a Site...Is It Me? Or Is it Everybody? Good Excuse To Find Somethin' Else To Do Today.... ... re=related ... more-42096 ... lures-106/ ... gD9BI75DO0 ... omed-wamu/ ... -eye-view/ ... _business/ ... GuYWlHyRDU ... d-records/ ... tUrQ343suM

Stay Tooned.


I've gone into capital preservation mode. Outside down days in key stocks, interday reversals in key stocks and indices, stocks going down on bad news/good news/no news/first class earnings beats, and then the few stocks that went up on first class earnings end up going down, That's A Deal Breaker.

I'm 73% bonds and GIC and the remainder mostly long AsiaPacific as a materials/growing economy thing. I may get all the way lighter on the little bit of domestic stocks I own in the 401a and lighter yet on the RERFX stuff. Stay Tooned...

My readings as posted here over the last 2 years made me way too cautious way too early and I missed most of the run up. I listened to Main Street and the more cautious parts of Wall Street and I saw the steam roller coming while it was still 8 miles away and I got out of its way. And stood around. I don't have the tools here in the 401a to pick up the few pennies still on the road and expect to get away cuz now I hear the steamroller and feel the rumblings. Man up, face up to a lost opportunity and get back to the curb.

Norway, Australia, Brazil, and India as of this evening seeing the end of the financial crisis on their turf and putting new fiscal and monetary policies in place in the weeks and months ahead. Prolly more nations doing so over the next few months. It is NOT the US leading worldwide policy response to our financial crisis. This is us facing the great unwind of the Money For Nothing , Cash For Free policy in a less benign set of circumstances and less control than we are used to.

I can't think of a lousier set of circumstances to start into the Holiday Season with short of being at war. oh, yeah..... ... A4qY0M7Xyw ... e_building ... tm?cnn=yes ... 75658.aspx ... ck_check=1 ... T5HaOgYHpE ... tm?cnn=yes

Bad News

Set up for some serious downside. I'm all but out of stocks and getting outa bonds....

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 559 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 484 )
There Was A Time When 50% Of America Disapproved Of Rock 'n Roll And Only 5% Listened To It. Now It's Elevator Music. Fifty Percent Of Post WWII Industrial Production Was In America. Then It Was G-3, G5, G7, Now It's G20. Twenty Nations That We Coordinate Our Monetary Policy Wit'. And Australia Raises Rates 1/4% And The US Goes, "Uh-Oh..." Things Change Over Time.. But Now The Changes Are Really Gonna Pick Up Speed... 

International diversification, which I recommend for the sheer thrill of losing money around the clock in all sorts of different countries for reasons you cannot articulate, inevitably involves currency risk.
-- Howard Simons

Chartz And Table Zup @

The Original Wild Willie ... index.html

A Replica Of The Car That Qualified For Top Fuel At The WinterNationals....

I got stuff to say about what I've done this week and what I'm gonna do next week w/ my 401a......

It'll start w/ this chart o' the dollar over the last six months.

It's value has dropped around 15% in 6 months. Things we buy overseas like oil and metals and finished goods cost more because the dollar is cheaper and buys less. Our stuff becomes cheaper for overseas buyers because their currency buys more. Profits in drachma and simoleons and shekels earned overseas by US companies get inflated when converted back to dollars because they can buy more dollars with the foreign currency than they could six months ago. That is part of the excellent return earned by the EuroPacific Fund recently. A cheaper dollar hurts at the cash register but it can help exporters big time and also investors in the 401a. Gonna have to think about that. And write about it here.

Wed Eve/Thurs.... ... es-to-lag/ ... /index.htm ... er-letter/ ... 2009102109 ... g4uV.mo1kw

[ view entry ] ( 523 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 493 )
Tick Tick Tick..... Earning Season Starts Inna Middle O' Da Week. Is My Strategy Deer Inna Headlights? A Rational Approach To A Critical Juncture Of Risk And Reward? Or The Result Of Random Neural Output From The Brain Of An Old Broken Down Pipefitter With Too Many Nights Of Sex, Drugs, And Rock 'n Roll And Too Many Days Of Twistin' The Wrist An' Chasin' Down The Racer Ahead And Runnin' From The Racer Behind...? 

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom

Chartz An' Table Zup @

We are half a week from a fulcrum point. Think of a hallway with a door at each end. Ya open the door, walk through to the other door , open it, and walk through. Now think of the hallways set up in haunted mansions as death traps. Hinged in the middle, they are as solid as can be for step after step, until you take the first step past the middle. Then you are fucked. Think of Wednesday as getting close to the middle of the hallway. There are three hinges on the far door. Is there one inna middle of the floor?

Alcoa made 4 cents a share last quarter instead of the 9 cents a share loss that the street expected. The revenue was higher that Wall Street expected by 1.5%. But it was still down by 33% from a year ago. So the profit was made by grinding suppliers, closing plants, and laying people off. There is demand and there is a worldwide recovery under way. China is the difference. There will be more profits and more business done. Demand and prices will rise for raw materials and finished goods. The question is, will there be a national recovery here too and will future business and profits support the current US stock prices? It's a consumer economy (70%) in this country. Do you see a recovery ahead?

What it means here.... ... ntraction/

The writers I read have given up on rationality. It looks like the internet and housing bubble to them. The thoughts are that this will end badly. Or maybe not. Things looked great at the start of 2000 and 2005 and looked like hell in March of 2009. How it looks to you today depends. The question is, is it 1998 or 2000? Is it 2002 or 2006? How long until employment launches skyward or stock prices implode? What would you do if you knew the answer? What would you do if you didn't?

Solid Gold Place To Start For The 401a Participant. ... riend.html ... ZfOLKO2Zpk ... d_economy/ ... /910070345 ... vironment/ ... /index.htm

Pretty much describes where my head is at.... ... t-history/

Extremely thought provoking for the buy and hold 401a participant. It is not without holes, but I've read this book before and I can fill some of them in myself and interpret my way past others. ... more-39371

Tick Tick Tick... ... p2WcXs3fP4 ... z0hsBTTR4A ... re=related
Main St vs Wall Street ... nightmare/

I'm watching and waiting....

I've moved my 401a to an outsized position in cash for safety during a potentially very volatile time and for quick deployment back to stocks if an end of year run up starts. I have a smaller proportion in bonds for safety and income. I'm about 1/8 in EuroAsia as a weak dollar/commodity/growth play, and a tag end in small cap cuz I stopped one or two exchanges short. My Website has details to 4 decimal places.



You better be conservative or ready to turn onna dime.
It might be that things "Have Got To Get Better Inna Little While". If so there will be plenty of time for me to get way long then.


Intel and JPM report good quarters and good/mixed forecasts. Economically, it is not ragingly bullish. But markets spike up. Fifty percent of S&P 500 revenues come from overseas. There will be profits and revenue. But domestic jobs, government spending, and housing are not going to move strongly in the right direction for a while. I think that realization has yet to be fully appreciated by investors. If the rest of the world raises interest rates or we have a lousy Christmas economy/housing drops another increment when rising rates make the FED/Treasury stop printing money, we could see a serious dip down. The near/long term upside is limited. Downside is less limited. It's about potentials, not imperatives. Listening to what the markets say and being ready to react to protect what you have today is as important as ever. I'm thinking about what to do with the 401a later today.

WED Afternoon....
Definitely feels toppish.

That said, I'm leaning toward tossin' in some 401a
money on the year end run up...

Stay tooned. To be continued....

[ view entry ] ( 502 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 500 )
GAWD!!! This Is A Mess! An Amazing Bear Market Rally, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, And Private Investors Who Missed It, End Of The Year Three Months Away, One Last Chance To Look Good, And A Dawning Awareness That 26 Million Unemployed And Underemployed Ain't Gonna Make For A Merry Christmas Shopping Season. Could The Markets Be Up At Years End? We'll See. 

"The Financial Instability Hypothesis suggests that over periods of prolonged prosperity, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance (stable) to a structure that increasingly emphasizes speculative and Ponzi finance (unstable)."
-- Hyman Minsky

Chartz And Table Zup @

Smokin', Kick Ass, And Just Plain Silly.... ... re=related ... 1337502001 ... ty-python/ ... ember.html ... -they-get/ ... more-40077 ... ecoveries/ ... oQJ14iSlWg ... d_economy/ ... ember-200/ ... ZinRhF5tlA ... ork_times/ ... e_economy/ ... rns-south/ ... owSDAJbML4 ... d_economy/ ... d_economy/ ... al_estate/

I've gone to bonds and cash with a little tag end in the small cap 'cuz I forget to move it and a small chunk in the Euro Pacific option as a weak dollar play. See

The cash is quickly deployable for a yearend run if it comes to that. The bonds is a fear thing. And if you know me, you know I ain't a very fearful kinda guy. But if you read what I do, you understand that I respect the possibilities.

"I can dodge folly without backing into fear."
Nero Wolfe

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 404 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 497 )
Ya Can't Always Be The Best There Is, But If You Can Have A Lot of Fun Doin' It, That Goes A Long Way Too. 

[ view entry ] ( 529 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.8 / 19 )
Ye Auld Regal Extraordinaree Especkial Thursday Night Post 

Lookie Here Boys and Girls..


We've come a long way in 7 months. We've had our dips and fits and starts, but from way too low, we've steadily gone way too high. Every time the market should have paused and corrected or churned sideways to correct in price or time, it resumed the climb.

Yesterday something changed. See....
Check out this week, especially at 2:15 P.M. Wed Afternoon


The Fed has been the market's friend. Yesterday it gave a good message to the market and the good news spiked the market up hard...and then the market sold off. And Wednesday was an Outside Down Day. (Ask me when you see me). Over the past 7 months, news, all news, good or bad, pretty much sent the market up. Yesterday's good news sent the market down. Today's bad housing news and good job news sent the market down. Ya gotta watch what the market does with the news it gets. Ya gotta especially watch for a change of character.

I'm now down to about 20% stocks/80% money from 60%/40% and 60% of the 20% is in offshore stocks.

I'm not confident and I'm major getting outa company and economy risk and getting into bonds and the GIC's security. I may go farther that direction Friday.

[ view entry ] ( 378 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 495 )
Nuttin' Clever Comes To Mind....An' My Elbow Hurts...You Fill It In For Once. 

Thank you America, for the great choice between the spineless left and the lunatic right.
--Alan Farley

Chartz And Table Zup at

Stay tooned ... re=related ... ts-losses/ ... r-sort-of/ ... holtz-Says

My 401a is sixty four percent stocks and the rest in bonds. The market WILL crack. But I dunno when. All the people who mistrusted and hated this rally all the way up are standing by, ready to finally buy any pullback. And they've been waiting for months. But it is easier to plan to buy when stocks are going down than it is when they actually lose value. Some people (like me) gave up waiting for a pullback and bought in on the way up, supporting more upside. More will do so. But there are a lot of profits out there. And everybody who took partial profits on the way up ended up leaving money on the table. So there is a ton of pent up sales to protect profits hanging in mid air. If the whoosh down comes on major non market bad news, it could overwhelm and panic the dip buyers and become a self reinforcing cascade. But the pro's NEED to be up at year end to keep their jobs and they will toss in the kitchen sink to make it so. And the pols NEED to be up at the end of the year and into the '10 elections to be re elected so they will borrow and spend everything available to you, the taxpayer. But at least the money pros can lock the year in early by not waiting until the last week of the year to declare victory. It may end up a competition to sneak out the door early. But if you look at post 2000 to date as a bear market with one complete multi year bear market rally built on private debt and a partially complete bear market rally built on emotion and public debt, you face the possibility that the rally could have a ways yet to go.

Or maybe the PollyAnna's are right and the whoosh up since March is the market being a leading indicator about the bear market being
history and predicting a complete and total recovery in the months ahead.

There's a lot of rationalizations and possible outcomes. But there are two two measures of reality that are unequivocal and that are available to me in instantaneous and raw form; time and price. Markets are in a sustained uptrend after a gawdawful plunge and looking toppish, and I'm partially aboard with my finger on the eject button. ... tent_10957

Stay Tooned, Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.

[ view entry ] ( 1182 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 467 )
Nuclear Disarmament And One Handed Typing... Details Below  

"You may have a fresh start any moment you choose, for this thing that we call 'failure' is not the falling down, but the staying down."
--Mary Pickford


I kinda went nuclear on dis arm. Posting will be slow and sparse. And painful. That said, if you have been following the links I post here, you know that I think that I can see behind the curtain and see government men pulling the levers trying to prevent the painful deflation of the risk and real estate bubble by creating the third bubble of the decade; the taxpayer's debt bubble. That has kept me out of the market for most of the 50% bounce since the March lows. I'm grudgingly adding exposure now for the possible end of the year run up. My caution will undoubtedly be proven right at some point. But 50% early means the same as WRONG. The fact that '04 to '08s results give me an excellent record does not excuse my substituting my reliance on my intellectual biases for listening what the market has to say. Check out my 401a funds distribution table on for details. And Stay Tooned.... ... re=related ... gton_post/ ... nt_outlook ... index.html ... -us-terms/ ... gnqYrMSrtI ... gnqYrMSrtI ... UTn7JFw1qk ... ssion.html ... -agencies/ ... ism_fails/ ... sner-says/ ... n-hostage/ ... ce=reuters
Only if you have an hour or two to spare and the interest in the minutae.... ... ssler.html ... ssler.html ... -agencies/ ... ew-normal/ ... f-bankers/ ... es-we-can/ ... ism_fails/ ... sner-says/


Here's where I stand this evening. I'm cultivating obliviousness so's I can make some money.

I ain't gettin' TOO loose, though. My finger is on the eject button and the ripcord is tied to my other wrist...

I ain't happy about leavin' money on the table this year......
But up almost 8% this year and averaging 13% over 5 years is none too shabby either.

Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 986 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 493 )
A Nod Is As Good as A Wink To A Blind Horse.... But That Kinda Stuff Is Pretty Much Frowned Upon Nowadays. 

A trend is a trend is a trend.
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?
-- Alec Cairncross

Chartz and Table Zup @

Stay tooned. More later this weekend.

[ view entry ] ( 406 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 496 )
Indian Summer In SF, 90 Degree an' Sunny, Music Inna Park, Saturday Off, Markets @ Yearly Highs, I'll Worry About Tomorrow Tomorrow... 

A knowledge of the path cannot be substituted for putting one foot in front of the other.
- M.C. Richards

Chartz An' Table Zup @

Nice weather, I been ridin' lately an' I got stuff to do... Some of that stuff will appear here later inna weekend.

Stay tooned...

When I'm 64....Kinda. Not Exactly What Paul McCartney Wrote About... Keepin' Busy And Active When Ya Get Old. And Supplementing Yer Life Savin's With A Part Time Job... ... re=related

AS A TAX PAYER, DOES THE LINK BELOW PISS YOU OFF JUST A LITTLE? HOW ABOUT B OF A HIDING BEHIND THE LAWYERS? THAT LINK IS BURIED BELOW AMONGST SOME OTHERS...... ... ure-order/ ... dzon-says/ ... amp;st=cse ... ssweekcom/ ... zycjQjir8g ... zgH4hvhh.g ... videoembed ... g_america/ ... 04193.html ... 7peVQLy6xc ... rowth.html ... nt_outlook ... sumer.html

Just wait until the payment hangover hits... that should be starting just about now, and continue for the next four to six year. Booya boys - you traded in a paid-off vehicle for a car payment! That ought to do wonderful things for spending in places such as restaurants, vacation spots and the like. ... Lying.html

And This Explains What The Fed may Have To Hide.... ... izing-debt


Sold some stock today, I'll finish selling tomorrow, leavin' only tag endz in the 401a fer tracking purposes. I'm mostly in bonds and mostly non gov bonds.

Hang On....

WEDNESDAY EVE: ... etter.html

'bout a month's worth of action. SPECTACULAR gains, a roll over, a pretty good bounce and just the start of a second rollover. But the character of the market has changed. The likelihood of a substantial risk to the downside is substantially greater. I read a lot and trade some two. It's for real, but not a done deal... but I'm lined up that way. Twelve percent stock and the rest bonds and GIC. YMMV.

See ya at the hall.

[ view entry ] ( 555 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 515 )
Short Weekend. Look For The Rest O' The Usual Here Later This Week.....  

Lindsey Campbell;
What do you do to fix the economy?

Barry Ritholtz;
I don’t know that the economy needs fixing. What do you do to fix night? You wait and it becomes day.

Chartz and Table Zup @ ... mwu6UfHB4o ... Gb2NqN3C_U ... R3wifbUr1w ... SrdZo5NyeY ... TT9jivRIWE ... -who-knew/ ... ese-banks/ ... e-bottoms/ ... toshop-era ... ilures.php ... s-history/

I've been overly cautious and bearish for way too much of the last 4 months. But over the last four years I've got a SMOKIN' hot return, even including the last four months. Will my pessimism be justified by the rest of the year?

See ya here over the next coupla days....

Monday AM...

Unloaded stocks in the 401a as per the rapid trading restrictions. The sidelines is a good place to be.

Tues Eve....
Didn't get my sell order in to lighten up further. Worked out OK since the markets went up. Still thinkin' the market's headed down as I think the anticipation of recovery exceeds the reality. My exposure to the downside is limited. My opportunity to catch the bounce from March is gone. If this IS a new bull market or recovery, I'll have months and/or years to climb aboard. Standing pat.... ... re=related


JUST INSANE..... ... nese-ppip/ ... ally-over/ ... s-history/ ... 03655.html ... 02249.html ... 9S20090814

[ view entry ] ( 524 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 486 )
Yup... Unhuh Uhhuhh. EarlierThis Week I Decided That Knowing Too Much About What A Dire State The World Was In Was Costing Me Profits. I Emptied My Mind Of Caution And Moved To Almost 40% Stocks. Party On, Dood!!!! 

If you trade stocks in the short term, one of things that you need to be very aware of is that sometimes the action that seems extremely stupid is the best way to make money.
If a lot of people with a lot of money are chasing grossly overvalued stocks, it can feel pretty dumb to throw caution to the wind and join the party.
There are reams of sophisticated fundamental analyses out there that purport to establish what a stock is worth. What you need to realize is that the correlation between a stock's 'value' and the price it is trading at is very loose in the short term.
In fact, there can be a complete disconnect between the two for very long periods of time.
If you are going to trade in the short term, you need to decide whether you are willing to do the dumb things that make money or are you going to stick to the "facts" and stand aside while the idiots run prices up and down.
It's all about sentiment, mood and psychology in the short term, and it doesn't pay to think too hard about fundamentals if you are playing in the short term.

James “Rev Shark” DePorre

Charts and Table Zup @ ... 6BdHuR9JUU ... E8aZLFuNXo ... M_oxkI3Qkw ... bHcz0ryM_E ... hD2umuVt_c ... n-history/ ... -creation/ ... sz8TNju_Zg ... ulson.html ... iLSlGSSoFo ... mp;emc=rss ... 39_VW6pf3U ... gtL5wHZN8k ... BJ8IS3ZImw ... gton_post/ ... gage_mess/

Here's the smart move I made in my 401a on the dates shown.

Here's what I missed out on. Ya can't get 'em all right. Rev Shark is right; Trends always move farther than you think they should. I still think there is much more employment misery to come. I still think that there is much more housing misery to come... in time if not in price. And they ain't hirin' everybody back down at the plant fer the Christmas season. As Barry Ritholtz sez "The parachute has opened and we're no longer in free fall. But we're still going down." This is all about the "New Normal." Which I'll write about later.

So I'm chasing a move that has come a long way and can't have much farther to go in its late stages. The upside is limited and the downside is not so much. Hope I get it right..... I'll let you know about it here.

Stay Tooned....

Thursday Evening.....
So far... So good.

[ view entry ] ( 506 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 483 )
Stay tooned.... running late this weekend. 

Chartz and Table Zup at ... re=related ... glate.html ... stigation/ ... ome-sales/ ... -earnings/ ... inancings/ ... l-markets/ ... index.html ... 03065.html ... 8#32203408 ... aborative/ ... ready.html ... Zx5kGyDavA ... ch-9-lows/ ... treet-pay/ ... Sh0vntimco ... treet-pay/ ... gage_mess/ ... ork_times/ ... mp;emc=rss ... Ut41aeqxMk ... gRG8QbeKNY ... orpZRV0STk ... ut-nation/

Tuesday Eve

In The Face OF This;

We've Got This;

I caught some of the pop off the bottom in March, but not enough of it. I moved to the side lines. You read the links I post here, you know I see under the covers and through the picket fence and you know why I bailed out. That was a mistake. I looked for a pullback so I could fix it. Another mistake.
I gritted my teeth this morning and I'm about 40% stocks this evening. It is not expected to be a long term relationship. In fact, I'm afraid it'll be way too short. But I gotta party hearty while I can since it looks like the party ain't ever gonna stop. It will.... I just dunno when. "Maybe Tomorrow... Or Until The End Of Time..." Not leaving soon enough would be another mistake. Eventually I'll get it right. The fact that I'm still up 50% over almost 5 years give me a basis for faith... I'm aiming for mostly right. Purt much there fer now.....Know whut ah mean, Vern?

Maybe this upcoming weekend I'll write about it.....

[ view entry ] ( 470 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 476 )
I Mentioned To My Wife That She'd Never Asked Me To Talk To The Kids About Sex And Drugs While They Were Growing Up. "Damn Right!!" She Answered..... 

If you trade stocks in the short term, one of things that you need to be very aware of is that sometimes the action that seems extremely stupid is the best way to make money.
If a lot of people with a lot of money are chasing grossly overvalued stocks, it can feel pretty dumb to throw caution to the wind and join the party.
There are reams of sophisticated fundamental analyses out there that purport to establish what a stock is worth. What you need to realize is that the correlation between a stock's 'value' and the price it is trading at is very loose in the short term.
In fact, there can be a complete disconnect between the two for very long periods of time.
If you are going to trade in the short term, you need to decide whether you are willing to do the dumb things that make money or are you going to stick to the "facts" and stand aside while the idiots run prices up and down.
It's all about sentiment, mood and psychology in the short term, and it doesn't pay to think too hard about fundamentals if you are playing in the short term.

James “Rev Shark” DePorre

Chartz and Table Zup @

Stay tooned for more this weekend. I've been away for a coupla weeks and time to dial it up. Seeya here later.
 ... re=related ... ork_times/ ... ite_house/ ... ebpage.jpg ... ome-sales/ ... -earnings/ ... lly-to-64/ ... -earnings/ ... the-rally/ ... d-to-2002/ ... nkfest-13/ ... more-33370 ... -regional/ ... %E2%80%99/

[ view entry ] ( 518 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 507 )
Did We Just Have The Mother Of All Oversold Bounces? Are We Looking At The Mother Of all Jobless Recoveries? MOTHER@*&%$&/*&^##!!!!!!!! 

In general, your target is not to beat the market. It is to beat zero. As I have written for years, the investors who win in this market are the ones who take the least damage.
-- John Mauldin

Chartz and Table Zup on

Stay tooned....

In the mean time.... Click here; ... re=related

and here; ... LGZEc7qoqA ... E3j.8n71UQ ... umer_news/ ... 0_1SlKgIwo ... 2009070715 ... FwADFOsxqQ
UH OH..... ... OrbEKeCVzk ... LGZEc7qoqA
Triple UH OH ... MFuHzp5R9E ... mods-fail/
EVEN WORSE ... good-year/ ... .html?_r=1 ... RlD846h2XY ... 10fed.html ... 10fed.html ... eap-money/
Freakin' "A" Tweetie Bird ... s-outlook/ ... time-bomb/

SO MUCH GREAT STUFF THIS WEEK!!!!! Informationwise, I mean.... In one aspect, that this is out there is GREAT. In another.... Not So Much.... ... ading-day/ ... e-summers/ ... n-2-years/ ... less_r.cfm ... less_r.cfm

Either the efficient markets are telling us that things are 40% better than 3 months ago....
Or three months ago the emotional markets panicked to the downside and now are where they should really be....
Or We had a hell of an oversold bounce based on "still in business" and cheerleading and hope and we're about to roll over as we come to terms with how bad it really is...

I'm STILL all in in bonds and the GIC and torn between corporates for yield and Govies for safety. Guess what I think.....

[ view entry ] ( 398 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 497 )

<< <Back | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | Next> >>