I Know There's A Lot Of People Out There Who Are Thinking, "Please Dear God, Just Let Me Break Even On My Investments. I've Worked Really Hard And I Could Really Use The Money." Seems Kinda Sad..... 

"The truth will set you free, but first it will make you miserable."
--James A. Garfield





Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




Twelve Year Old Joe Bonamassa regularly opened for BB King and held his own with everybody. Like Robben Ford...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U1lSuEeZPQ

Then He Worked With Tom Dowd...You Couldn't Find A Better Mentor....It Turned Out ALL Right.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_9KPUBxd-o

He Tours And Plays About 200 Days A Year. It Shows...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoG5zSj4 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHGEX8Aa ... re=related




Speaking of A Churnin' Urn Of Burning Funk....





Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ra ... -congress/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/im ... about-you/


You Have Bigger Problems Than You Think.....

"Global Economic Downturn: A Crisis of Political Economy is republished with permission of STRATFOR."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110808 ... al-economy

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... e-endgame/




















Very Interesting.....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/cu ... or-idiots/
http://abnormalreturns.com/swensen-on-t ... -industry/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mr-market/
http://abnormalreturns.com/swensen-on-t ... -industry/
http://pragcap.com/putting-the-correcti ... erspective

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08 ... quivalent/


http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... ss_economy
http://pragcap.com/3-smart-bears
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... rom=sec431
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... print.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/qo ... ate-lobby/
http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2011 ... lshit.html



OUCH!!!!! MY BRAIN....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-1 ... -weil.html


TUES>>>

http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.bl ... tting.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/com ... 3976.story
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peter ... he-bottom/




Wednesday...

Obama's in over his head. Perry's pretty clueless too. But I do love what the internet brings us every day....

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/the-texas-miracle/
http://www.scribd.com/doc/61684192/Rick ... Transcript


Thurs....

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... to-show-up





Stay Tooned












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It Looks Like The Next 5 Years Are Going To Be The "Interesting Times" Of The Old Chinese/Jewish/American Saying..... Google It....  

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



J Tull started out as a blues band and quickly evolved into Ian Anderson's vision of an rock ensemble. I've always liked Tull, but the early version with so much raw talent and different directions was never equaled.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 66284.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 91320.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 83290.html
http://www.performing-musician.com/pm/s ... bunker.htm




Bonds... Check out my website.... Asset allocation will save yer ass at times like this....

I've spent some time corresponding with Dan Fitzpatrick and this is an excellent example of his work. I'm not a regular follower of his service but he's got a lot worth listening to...
http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3264.cfm












So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk?


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... than-ever/


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... e-curtain/



It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom







Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.

I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... -a-sudden/



Monday Eve

I Have This List...


...it's of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.



DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....

There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/on ... f-america/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ma ... r-are-you/


TUES

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mes-first/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/09/wet-n-wild/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... sh-legacy/


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/#44080879




WED EVE...

We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...

I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 34052.html



THURS.....

Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.

But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....




The Original; Howard Hangs It Out.

http://www.google.com/search?q=i'm ... en___US371



Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ra ... -congress/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/im ... about-you/








Stay Tooned.....

















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Got My Mojo Workin'... Got My Mojo Workin'...... Jes' Doan' Work On You. McKinley Morganfield 

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
-- Woody Allen



Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



McKinley...
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/muddy-wat ... 00374.html










I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....

Bonds and cash....



http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201107 ... ly-germany
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/an ... all-speed/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... paign=Feed
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/31/traitors/







TUESDAY!!!!!



WED...




Thursday





Stay tooned....
















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MOTOGP!!!!!! GAWD!!!!!! 

Despite all of the talk about Democratization of investing, Wall Street primarily serves only the very wealthiest Americans. And that is a shame.
-- Barry Ritholtz




Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



BUTTERFIELD!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j9iNV_e ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqa6tMwv ... re=related


And MOTOGP!!!!!!
http://www.superbikeplanet.com/2011/Jul/110713m1s.htm








Kickin' Ass in my trading account. I can go where the action is. And it is up high and in the corners. Cash and bonds inna 401a. The markets are squirrely, the economy is crashing after too long on stiimulus, and none on the horizon, and you make money when the risk/reward works for you. That ain't everyplace and all the time.

Waiting for clarity....


Wed Eve....




Clarity.... Seems clear to me....





Stay Tooned....
















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I Listened To An Ex Senator Alan Simpson Interview On The Bi Partisan Deficit Report....Horrifying...I Think It Is Fixable. I'm Not Sure It Will Be.... 

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
— Michael Crichton



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.

It Starts Like This;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLB900at ... r_embedded
And Pretty Soon It Gets To This;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn09Xn9J ... re=related





http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/cl ... n-economy/












http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/opini ... .html?_r=1

http://mobile.theonion.com/articles/con ... obile=true




Stay Tooned....










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Politics? Control Alternate Delete. Works For Me. Some Times It's The Right Thing To Do... 

I am not a Democrat, because I have no idea what their economic policies are; And I am not a Republican, because I know precisely what their economic policies are.
-- Barry Ritholtz


Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



We're All Showin' The Mileage.... But There's Young Guys Inna Wings.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvNUTqDJ ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vZ6b6j ... re=related







http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 24592.html








Moving over to some funds to bonds. The stock market has been big time decoupled from main street for a coupla years. Profits and prices have been up but I'm feelin' that the risk is to the down side, secularly, seasonally and cyclically. my aggressiveness is sated by what I'm doin' in my trading account and IRA's. I'm too old not to have come to appreciate discretion as the better part of valor when I suspect I may end up pissing into the wind. Let things clarify.....


MONDAY EVE...



Bonds and cash....'Nuff Said.


TUES EVE
The S&P closed below the 50 Day MA. Now let's see if it is confirmed....


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/us ... hijackers/





Thurs Eve...


This could get bad. Not necessarily, .... but the possibility exists.





Stay Tooned...









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Death Is Nature's Way Of Telling You To Slow Down. Kinda The Ultimate Excuse. Until Then, No Excuses.... 

"In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is."
-- Yogi Berra



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Taj and Keef do my two favorite versions of Leaving Trunk. Here's both of them. if only video had been around when Keef's band did Born To Die.... What do Ian Cruikshank and Spit James have in common?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SHlnUr ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIzSy8Ln ... re=related

An' a little Taj Mahal channelin' Howlin' Wolf.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyP07ybz ... re=related

An a little Keef Hartley and Spit James....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6SQ1A0k ... re=related



OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!!! Smokin' week inna market. And I was All Cash. It stings, but it still may have been the responsible thing to do. Stay tooned and I'll explain why.....




I got out at 1 because the economy sucked, the Fed was through stuffing the bank vaults with cash, ya can't buy houses if yer unemployed, the banks make safer money buying treasuries than loaning money for interest, Greeks were getting their Visa card limits raised so as to borrow to make the monthly, China inflation and GDP was running into a slowing world economy, and the first glimpse of the next recession is occurring with 9% to 17% unemployment today ,depending on what yer smokin'.

It looked as expected at 2 & 3 & 4.

At 5, with everyone leaning the same way after 4 down weeks, the paint the tape game started early because of the end the quarter. Once the buyers lit up the tape, the scramble to get outa shorts and inta longs got frantic. the only red that week was end of the days locking in profits and after lunch onna 30th locking in profits.

So.... Tuesday. A lotta guys show up having missed the run up and waiting on earnings inna week or two. Do they (I) buy at the highs? Or do they say, "Aw RIGHT!!! A chance to unload at the prices I missed last month ...SELL EVERYTHING!! Is the stock market saying "Everything is better, we washed out the timid and it's UP, UP, AN' AWAY. Or is it saying " We brutalized the cautious, now let's break the foolhardy.

See, I just don't see how much has changed inna last month. Greece is patched over, but the German public is less and less sure about floatin' the rest of the EZ. The economy? Wall Street vs Main St? A recession on the horizon? QE3? Do i see the way home?


Dunno. But discipline trumps conviction. Price is truth and in my IRAs and trading account, I'm long and undiversified and even margined in the trading account. I can do what I wanna, when I wanna, All in long to all out in the click of an iphone. Last week was good But that is not the way it is with my 401a. There are rules and restrictions on what, when, and how often. I gotta move deliberately, like moving a building down the street, not a car.

This is the other side of a Bull Market, when I'll go 100% long the most aggressive funds and ride undiversified through the dips and hiccups. The down days or weeks 'll be nothing another few days or weeks of up won't fix.

This is a Secular Bear Market where the news is bad, sell offs are relentless and the updrafts are absolutely vicious. I gotta deal with missing the ups as the price of missing the downs. I'm in cash now and I expect to be in cash until I see a reason not to be...








http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43633233/ns ... _business/

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... other.html




The blast back to recent highs left a lot of investors on the outside lookin' in. That is a ready made cabal of dip buyers. The market can work off the overbought condition by going down and letting the left out in all at once at a lower price, or it can chop around and let the left out in a few at a time, correcting in time instead of price.

Or it can run head on into a a horrible jobs report or a Italy/Spain EU conflagration and undo the last week's launch upward all a once and continue down through the 200 day moving average.

Standing by in cash. I missed 80 points in 5 days, I ain't gonna chase it if I don't have any idea where it is going.... The market is going to be open tomorrow, next week, next month and next year too. I'm going to wait to commit until I have some clarity...



http://www.thestreet.com/story/11174104 ... ivity.html




Stay tooned.













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Weather Sure Is Strange.... Winter To Summer In Two Days.  

"If things go wrong, don't go with them."
--Roger Babson


Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




So much Talent, So much of a Tragedy...Jaco, one from the darker late days,two from when it was all about his present and the bright future, and one of my favorite tribute songs, called "Jaco". Check out "Mr Fats" on the Brubeck "Tritonis" LP to hear how much Jaco influenced contemporary bassists and those to follow....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwhkPSEX ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqashW66 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I63bOi47 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qo4RC1Qd2w




Lotta Watchin' Not Much Participation.



Stay The Course......As Long As It Is Working.
Turn Onna Dime.........When It Is The Right Thing To Do.










http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/mo ... tion-rate/


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... rowth.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... looms.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71458358/


http://thestar.blogs.com/davidolive/201 ... risis.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/mo ... d-madness/













Stay Tooned.













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We're Not As Far Down As We Were In March, But It Feels A Lot Worse.... Kinda Like 84 Degrees F at 7:30 AM Feels Different Than 84 Degrees F At 3:30 PM. Feels Like Something Serious Is Onna Way..... 

People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.
-- Jean Monnet



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com





Back Inna Day, KSAN was tryin' to stay afloat post Hippie Apocalypse and had tapped the Bay Area music community for an all live music weekend. One of the Fillmore Auditorium regular bands canceled out and Ronnie Montrose, who was putting a band together at the time, filled in on a coupla hours notice. He put on what would be his Montrose Stadium Rock program of the future in a studio using practice amps and borrowed instruments. This was in the pre-box-of-effects, Marshall-in-your-pocket-era. Sounded kinda like this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk52nGxF ... re=related





Over the weekend, decisions will be made that will determine whether the world will relive the 2007-08 crash. The odds are not that bad short term. They are horrible long term and the downside outcome is nasty..... Stay tooned.

http://www.comstockfunds.com/%28X%281%2 ... eSupport=1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-1 ... -veto.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/we ... -solution/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/su ... -06-17-11/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43431407/ns/politics/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43439252/ns ... _business/







http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... hnson.html


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-1 ... lment.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43456544/ns ... _business/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43443426/ns ... ws-europe/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... -debt.html


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/ap ... he-news-2/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... et-it.html






You start with everybody in cash or short. Then someone goes, "Hey, Waidaminute!! Who's left to sell and/or go to cash? What if the only thing left to do is buy?" With everybody leaning the same way, it doesn't take much to ignite a stampede the other way. It looks like a ferocious short covering and chasing runaway stocks rally.

The fundamentals suck. If the market confirms the launch, I will figure out what to do then. Right now, it feels too much like a bear trap....

Still all cash....









Stay Tooned.....














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After The Banks In Ireland And Finland Blew Themselves Up Through Too much Leverage And Speculation, The Governments Transferred The Losses To The Citizens. Then The Citizens Voted Themselves A New Government. Stay Tooned....  

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tick, tick, tick... 

"When the plane is going down and the oxygen masks have dropped and parts of the plane are peeling off as you plummet toward the earth, that’s not the time to pull out the little card in the seat in front of you and say, ‘Gee, where are the emergency exits?' Everybody should have an emergency plan. The time to make these decisions is not when people are running around with their hair on fire."
--Barry Ritholtz



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com ... Check It out ....



I'm Still Shakin' My Head An' I've Owned The DVD For Years...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNuXO60G ... re=related


It's June An' I'm still 99-44/100's stock free inna 401a. The Ivory Soap riff is kinda my emergency plan...Know What I Mean, Vern? (How soon until NOBODY can relate to a '50s marketing slogan or a Jim Varney reference?)













http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... point.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/oh ... end-again/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/su ... s-6-03-11/
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... n-dream-i/
http://www.gq.com/news-politics/big-iss ... table=true
http://money.msn.com/investing/the-big- ... jubak.aspx
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 26472.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-0 ... -view.html
http://www.debka.com/article/21002/




Tues....


It's Not That We're Down 5%, We're Up A Whole Bunch Over The Last Two Years.
It's That Sentiment Has Changed, The Season Is Against Us, And The Leaders And Tells Are Undercutting Our Confidence.



Thurs Eve... Still 99-44/100s % stock free inna 401a. Keep da bounce in perspective......











Stay tooned....














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Blogs; A Total Waste of Time? A Source Of Dangerous Mis Information?, Self Centered Self Gratification? A Dangerous Crowding Out Of Real Content? The Descent Of Erudite Intellectual Activity Into the Cacophony Of The Uneducated Masses? The Dilution Of Expertise And Knowledge?..... Pretty Much. 

Page after page of professional economic journals are filled with mathematical formulas leading the reader from sets of more or less plausible but entirely arbitrary assumptions to precisely stated but irrelevant theoretical conclusions.
—Wassily Leontief



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Comin' Up On SummerTime; Makes Me Wanna Toss The 'board Inna '40 Ford Woodie, Pick Up My Beach Bunny, An' Boogie On Down To Ocean Beach Anna Cliff House. To Watch The Cold Grey Ocean Wash In Under The Cold Grey Fog While I Nurse An Irish Coffee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWw55XhTehg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onqzua4bRHY&NR=1






http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... iCXb1Nhd1o




http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/su ... s-5-27-11/
http://247wallst.com/2011/05/27/some-re ... abandoned/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... s-reprise/
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... -now-short
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-0 ... 0-01-.html
http://bostonreview.net/BR30.5/warrentyagi.php
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70223764/
http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/h ... dia_b36618
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 21352.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/afric ... 58677.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... video.html











Friday was last day of the month and window dressing on light pre-holiday volume. Tuesday will be 401/IRA inflows and is usually up. It'll be a tell. I do some individual stock trading in a coupla IRA's and I look behind the curtain of the major indexes. I'm Ivory Soap (99-44/100's ) pure Stable Value Fund inna 401a. I figure to spend the weekend re-fettlin' the scooters for commute and Sunday Ride and prolly the track use this Summer/Fall. Less risk there than buy and hold inna 401a through the Summer.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/an ... -defaults/
http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinetho ... minefield/



THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED



http://www.thegrio.com/entertainment/gi ... of-rap.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS3QOtbW4m0



MEMORIAL DAY



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ho ... -soldiers/





Wed 6/1...



I feel strongly about it both ways... Stable Value Fund is a great place to be when the market craters. But I'd much rather everyone had a job and a house and I could just go 100% in the most aggressive fundz. But ya play the cards yer dealt.....




99 and 44/100s pure stable value....








Stay Tooned.....
















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Ya Don't Slow Down, Ya Never Grow Old. ----- Tom Petty . . . . I'll Let Ya Know How It Works Out.... 

"If you keep thinking about what you want to do or what you hope will happen, you don't do it, and it won't happen."
-- Joe DiMaggio



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



The End Of QE2, Rising Rates In Euro Asia, More Foreclosure Fallout, Lower Highs and Lower Lows Inna Stock Market, I Do Believe This Issa Theme Song For The Summer...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5IS45jT ... re=related








I'm one day from being out of the markets. What I'm doing is very very specific to my circumstances, personality, and history. Prolly time to write about it since ya can't make sense outta the action without a program.









http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ru ... osecution/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/su ... events-21/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/20 ... ng-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ex ... es-falter/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ge ... %E2%80%9D/
http://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2011/04/cutt ... udget.html
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05 ... -near-you/
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-l ... ull.column



http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ta ... ll-street/




http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ha ... h-fer-two/


We got a lower high and a lower low and a close under the 50 day MA. And I got to 99+% Met Life Stable Value Fund... Now I wait....



What it all means...

Going from 95 % stock to all cash was a good idea, well timed.

This is an example of having all your boats in the water when the wind and the currents are working for you (9/10 to 5/11) and seeking shelter when conditions get sketchy (last coupla weeks).

I can't tell the future, I'm not privy to the conversations at the highest levels of business and government, I don't have inside information, and I still have title to my soul.

I do, however possess a certain degree of perceptivity and ratiocination such that I can see what is in front of me and figure out what I'm looking at. That's all ya really need...


http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011 ... 071/#img07


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/al ... 0-day-m-a/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ne ... more-66061
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/201 ... at-the-sp/



Tuesday Eve...

A "V" Shaped bounce looks less likely. I'm positioned for some serious down side. I may not get it. This might just be a brief pause while some temporary issues or seasonality are worked out. Or it could be the start of a significant down draft ending 10% to 25% down with a huge wash out amid chaos and despair...

Either way, I'll buy when I like what I see.



http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05 ... defaulted/

As High Frequency Economics says today: “Underlying problems of over-borrowed nations are not fixed by lending them more money.”










Stay Tooned...







[ view entry ] ( 1260 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1104 )
What Happens To The Party (The Markets) When The Fed Takes Away The Punch Bowl (Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] )? 

Just remember one thing: there are no good stocks. They all suck. Even those that are making you money are going to turn on you sooner or later. The only stock you should say anything good about is the one you no longer own that made you money.
--Reverend Shark




Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




What Happens When The Fed Takes Away Free Money (ZIRP)? It Really Ain't That Hard To Figure Out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtsClj04 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5IS45jT ... re=related

Pretty radical change in posture over the last month:



I'm down from 90% stocks just weeks ago to 33% this weekend, to anywhere from 20% to 0% anytime this week depending on how urgent I feel the need to get ultra defensive is....

It's a risk/reward thing, see? I been way long for a while, since 9/10. I made some serious coin last year. But there's limits. Making money was easy between late '04 and late 2008. I went 100% stocks, checked everything every Saturday morning and every so often trimmed my allocation toward the hot fundz. I was onna sidelines in cash during the 08/09 WHOOSH down. I read enough to make me certain that it was all risk and no reward so I cashed outa stocks into the GIC. I made money by not losing money. I mean I actually made money in 08. Coupla hundred simoleans beats a gaping smokin' pit inna 401a. I was late rejoining the party in the spring of 09. I let a lot of gains go bye bye because caution had served me so well previously. I didn't really understand the new religion of free money from the FED until 9/10. But there ain't no true believer like a recent convert so I got wit it. All stocks alla time.

That was then an' this is now. I'm gonna play onna other side of the street for a while. Yeah, I'm really aggressive when it comes to reachin' out for gains. It's what I do. But I balance that by being really aggressive protecting gains. I risk serious losses by being all the way long when I think the markets are goin' up. If the market turns against me, I can get roughed up onna way out. The rapid trading restrictions means there is a price to bailing out inna hurry. Ya gotta be smart aggressive; listen for the sirens and move closer to the door.

The other side of that is that caution and getting out early can leave you looking in the windows at the party. Coupla three four days of upward whoosh watched through the windows can sting hard enough to make yer eyes water. But, Oh Well! you never go broke realizing gains and booking profits. And a few dollars left onna table can be thought of as insurance premiums or the cost of admission. I can live with that. What's made me cautious over the last six weeks is starting to wear on me. Time for some fresh air and a rest. Nothing clears the head and resets the game like the view from the sidelines.

There is nothing that will benefit your portfolio more than avoiding losses when the market is acting poorly. If you can keep from incurring losses in your portfolio as the market falls, you avoid the very unproductive task of recouping losses once the market is more favorable.
James “Reverend Shark” DePorre




Few things are a bigger waste of time than getting back to even.










http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/05 ... nity-banks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... raphs.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/lo ... economics/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42955120/ns ... itol_hill/


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/wh ... d-manager/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/dodo-bird-bankers/
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-p ... 685.column
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ho ... -bottomed/
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... rs/238517/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/wh ... sa-part-2/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ho ... om-bubble/


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... -20110511?


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/lo ... economics/

http://alephblog.com/ Check out "The Impossible Dream Part 2"


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 23_pf.html
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/20 ... y_gen.html






Damn!! Meant to lighten up onna stocks today. Forgot to enter the orders. Got 'em entered for tomorrow.

I'm a trend and momentum investor. I see damn little momentum and the trend looks to be rolling over. If I can pick up a majority of the up and miss out on summa da down, I figure that's pretty copacetic. Bull markets are a much easier environment to invest in and I'd rather just go long and hang on. But that's a recipe for disaster during certain times.... like this one.. .






WED EVE


Up day inna market and I'm pretty much a day or two from an all cash position (Met Life Stable Value). I'll write more as to how and why this weekend. For now, I'm banking gains from the first four months of the year, stepping back from risks I identify in the market technicals, acknowledging concerns identified by what I consider to be reliable and informed sources, and taking a breather. Should we get yet another "V" shaped bounce, I'm in a position to go long as fast as I wanna without triggering rapid trading restrictions penalties... If we go down big time, an all cash is a good thing indeed...

A coupla moves still to go, done by next Monday, and then I wait. A day, A week, A month, Or three.









Stay Tooned....

















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Another Day, Another Drachma... Or Simolean. Whatever....  

"Money isn't the most important thing in life, but it's reasonably close to oxygen on the "gotta have it" scale."
-- Zig Ziglar




Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.





One Gawdamn Treasure After Another.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE0xG7OD ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CxVSM6F ... re=related
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/be ... t-be-nice/





We got higher highs and higher lows. We got a failed support line and a working support line. We got a dead cat bounce on lower volume after four days down from a multi year high. Beneath the indexes we have a WHOOSH down in commodities. We have leading stocks and sectors looking queasy. We got extended stocks without support after serious run ups. We have hot money bailing out of the trade dejour. We have risk vs reward, fear vs greed, and risk management vs asset allocation.

I've pulled back some serious coin. I'm more concerned about the return OF capital than the return ON capital.



If we launch higher Monday and don't look back, I've still got money inna game. just not as much as I like. I can fix that.

If Friday was short covering and bargain hunters seeing bargains compared to a week ago, we might continue/resume falling and this might be the non "V" shaped bounce/correction I've kinda been expecting. In that case, I still have too much money inna game.
I can fix that too.

We'll see.


http://www.debka.com/article/20912/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... andal.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... -bail.html





Big Time Important 401a Investor Stuff
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/wh ... d-manager/
http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/ ... spx?page=0







Stay tooned...










[ view entry ] ( 1142 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1226 )
IF YOU ARE GOING TO FIGHT TO SAVE THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS, YOUR FIRST OBLIGATION IS TO SAVE YOURSELF. WE NEED NUMBERS ON OUR SIDE TO BALANCE THE MONEY ON THE OTHER SIDE. START BY MAKING YOUR 401A WORK FOR YOU. YOU FIGHT BEST FROM A FIRM FOOTING ON A SOLID FOUNDATION. HERE'S WHAT I'M DOING... 

I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position.
-- Mark Twain




Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


It's Really Really Fun, Boys And Girls, And So Very Educational Too....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/fi ... round-two/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/la ... aventador/





I went deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon April 29th...

“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find one despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”

-- Ed Yardini



Clickit!!!!


Cup And Handle. Three "V" Shaped Recoveries. One Failed Support Line And One Working Support Line. Two Confirmed Consolidations. These Are Bullish Patterns. The Market Is Soaring, And For For Exactly The Wrong Reason. But They Don't Put An Asterisk On Gains, Take Them Back, Or Discount Them... A Dollar Gained Is A Retirement Dollar For Me And My Family Whether I Hated The Economic Conditions That Made It For Me Or Not. So I'm Way Long And Not Liking Why. I'm Tagging Along With What Is Making The Rich Richer. I Feel Strongly About It Both Ways.... But I Can Use The Money.






http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ho ... is-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/se ... %E2%80%A6/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/th ... mic-facts/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/su ... s-4-29-11/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/re ... epression/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ha ... mployment/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/en ... -ritholtz/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/th ... headwinds/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/th ... annotated/
http://www.propublica.org/article/all-t ... ing-bubble




Stay Tooned......












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Thank God I Grew Up When Honesty Demanded That You Call Them Sugar Pops And Sugar Smacks And Sugar Frosted Flakes. And It Was OK That Quakers Made Puffed Rice And Puffed Wheat For Kids That Were Shot From Guns .... 

The more you know, the harder it is to take decisive action. Once you become informed, you start seeing complexities and shades of gray. You realize that nothing is as clear and simple as it first appears. Ultimately, knowledge is paralyzing. Being a man of action, I can’t afford to take that risk.
– Calvin


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.



Usually there is some rock 'n roll with a personal link to my life linked here. Here's some radio of a different sort....
http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/04/22/ ... e-dylan-2/

There are times that I realize just how outa place I am today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGpS6LHeBC0


"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday (4/20) Action looked good. I changed my mind about risk and added to my stock position at the end of the day.....


Here's where I stood Thurs AM allocationwise....
I picked up a few bucks onna day and I'm nicely set up for Monday....If the bottom doesn't fall out.



I may go deeper into stocks Monday. Here's why.



My risk management and capital preservation has cost me money every time I've gotten anxious and lightened up since the bottom in 2009. I've gotten back in some distance behind the "close yer eyes and hang on" crowd, but.... It ain't a sin to be wrong, everybody makes mistakes. It IS a sin to stay wrong. So I don't. Of course, my caution allowed me to actually make money in my 401a in 2008 when everybody else was bleeding from the eyeballs. One day it'll save my donkey again. I just gotta keep fear matched against greed an' get the balance right.....








I'm going deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon.

“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find ond despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”

-- Ed Yardini




Cup And Handle. Bullish Pattern. The Market Is Soaring For Exactly The Wrong Reason. But They Don't Put Asterisk On Gains. A Dollar Gained Is A Retirement Dollar For Me And My Family Whether I Hated The Economic Conditions That Made It For Me Or Not. So I'm Way Long And Not Liking It.






Stay tooned.....











[ view entry ] ( 1265 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1181 )
Soon. no time now... 

“Middle-class America experienced a lost decade in their retirement accounts, whereas executives enjoyed record compensation packages through the subterfuge of stock option programs. There has been a massive wealth transfer from middle-class America’s retirement accounts to the bank accounts of the privileged few. The social consequences of this wealth transfer bear scrutiny.”

-Albert Meyer, Bastiat Capital (NYT)



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




Read 'em and weep.....


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 4#42614744
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... 411?page=1
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ta ... xecutives/







Tuesday's Links

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/19/opini ... .html?_r=1
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/co ... eeloaders/
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics ... thy/36755/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/sp ... or-resign/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/st ... al-system/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ta ... -for-rich/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 69610.html





The first couple of days of earnings releases gave us some so so reports that the markets did not like. Tuesday we got some better ones. We will see what the market sez Wed...

I reduced my exposure markedly as per the table above; 75%/25% money to stocks. It is a conservative allocation but not as defensive as I would be if not for rapid trading restrictions. We will see what tomorrow may bring....



Much Bigger Than Any Issue With Our 401a's.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-doo ... 2011-04-19




"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --John Maynard Keynes


Wednesday Action looked good. I changed my mind about risk and added to my stock position at the end of the day.....

Stay tooned...








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Back To The 50's. Inna 50's There Was Open Air Nuclear Tests Inna Pacific, Strontium 90 Inna Food And Milk. Now It's 2011 And There Are Missing Reactor Cores And Explosion Dispersed Spent Cores And Iodine 131 And Cesium Isotopes Inna Food. Forward To The Past... 

"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them."
--George H. W. Bush


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Speakin' O' The Past...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrABhokO ... re=related
Brings me back to the night @ de 'mo when I watched pretty much the same line up do the two mandatory hour long sets that everyone did at the 'mo. I was about 30 foot from the stage leanin' into the sound...


http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/fe ... 80215.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ja ... more-64711


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... needs.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... ckets.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... erian.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... akers.html












http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201104 ... reen-party
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europ ... 38116.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-1 ... ebate.html



Way Long Stocks. Eighty six percent plus. The charts are way extended and this is almost WFO into earnings. But I'm going into Monday with the shutdown postponed, earnings announcements about to start, the world's troubles rolled down to a simmer from a full boil and maybe I'll get a bounce to lighten up into.... Or not.





Stay Tooned...











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Remember Back To "The End Of History"? Seems Kinda Silly In Retrospect. Poor Choices And Bad Judgement Writing History In Japan And Nothing Lasts Forever Anymore Going Down In MENA. Historic, Really.... 

Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
-- Marcus Aurelius



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com





A Glimpse Of What It Was Like Back Inna Day....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oop92KYf ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfSl1KHi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4PXMCCT ... re=related




Two third stocks and one third cash 'cuz the end of the run is not yet clear. But it is closer now than it was then. So I'm not WFO. I used to run WFO in 5th gear at Sears Point outa Ten and straight at a concrete wall in Eleven because that was how it was done. I got away with it. Not everybody did. Kinda feels that way now.


http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_p ... oater.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ja ... ars-boats/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... leaks.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ci ... cys-costs/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-3 ... oeder.html
http://www.debka.com/article/20813/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-0 ... -city.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42377655/ns ... e_economy/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42388296/ns ... _business/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42323042/ns ... e_economy/










DAM!!!!!
http://www.ruralramblings.com/alpine-ib ... ingino-dam










[ view entry ] ( 900 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1122 )
"Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me" That's How You Get Talking Heads Pontificating About A Healed Economy And Business Looking Up. Pay No Attention To What Is Behind The Screen...... 

"The effect of mobiles, computers, satellites—there is a generation coming that is outside the traditional controls. Normally, generations re-create themselves. But something else is happening."
-- Mohamed Haykal



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com





Trower. Find Something That Works And Keep On Doing It. Kinda Like Investing. Shame To Lose Dewar Along The Way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfn6598L ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1jZO54m ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLHZsK4e ... re=related






There are things I can't do, like serious fundamental analysis of thousands of companies books and in depth analysis of governmental politics and sociopolitical movements on resource allocation and technological and sociopolitical forces versus the political imperatives in the MENA area. I don't have access to the raw data and I'm too busy laying out and bending high purity gas lines.
But I can get price vs time on a near instantaneous basis and there is little data available that is more cogent, accurate or determinant. And technical levels left behind mean it's modified risk on with an eye toward how the tenor of the market has changed.

Never mind what makes sense. The market never talks to you more directly than it does with price. Glow inna dark sea food onna West Coast, the Korean war Redux, the risk of Iran and Hamas in Lebanon, the forced retirement of way too many people way too young, major midwest cities drying up and blowing away, very high oil prices, Euro debt issues, etc, if prices go up through resistance and hold, I gotta be thinking, Buy. So I started to scale in last week.




Part way in last week, maybe more this Monday. Maybe.







http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/no ... -not-safe/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ho ... this-time/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42258117/ns ... e_economy/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/pr ... roam-free/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ci ... cys-costs/
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201103 ... ed-kingdom






Stay Tooned.














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Flu An/Or A Bad Cold, Glow Inna Dark Bad Shit In Japan, Live Fire/Real Live Dead In MENA, A Major Push At Work When I Got Back, And All Cash Alla Time Inna 401a, Why Post? That Was Then. This Is Now  

Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



Day Of The Eagle, Not The Dove, Indeed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w7LqtjD ... re=related
That Was Then, This Is Down...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA1THYhQ ... re=related





My Granddad used to say "If you're lucky, shit'll do for brains." I'm either real lucky or real smart.

I saw too much risk in late February and my reduced risk allocation worked out pretty well.









http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/un ... fukushima/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/go ... -industry/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42180314/ns ... _business/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... lewis.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... tages.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... flict.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42059021/ns ... d_economy/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... s-end.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41936353/ns ... d_economy/








Stay Tooned...















[ view entry ] ( 1970 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1093 )
All Risk. No Reward In Sight Worthy Of The Risk..... 

All Stable Value Fund Inna 401a..

A lotta oil inna ira's and my foolin' around account.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/japan-and-bahrain-oh-my/
















[ view entry ] ( 1625 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 962 )
Way Too Much Oil Innat.....I Think I'm Gonna Throw Up....... 

"The art of investment is the art of selling. Buying is a lesser skill and holding requires no skill at all."
-- Harry Schultz



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com












Unions; The People That Brought You The Weekend And Changed Starting At Seven To Mean Seven O'clock Instead Of 7 Years Old.


http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/childlabor/





3/10/11

STILL ALL CASH. Feeling very much more comfortable for it.


Stay Tooned....

















[ view entry ] ( 909 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1066 )
Short Week. LOTTA Action....!!!!! 

One day I sat thinking, almost in despair; a hand fell on my shoulder and a voice said reassuringly, "Cheer up, things could get worse." So I cheered up and, sure enough, things got worse.
-- James Hagerty



Chartz and Table Zup @www.joefacer.com





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzN0mMx- ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFaT69Cy ... re=related

Makes Me Feel Old.... I was still in High School/Jr College.

I AM Old. So's Stevie...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C6czP_s ... re=related







Since the Beginning Of The Year...




The Last Five Days....

The vertical line is the day I went from 99% Stocks to 99% cash in the 401a. I took a big hit on the day I stepped off the elevator. It fell another coupla floors down and bounced a touch past half way back up, just past where I stepped off. Will it keep on going back up and will my caution cost me a few dollars of lost gain? Or will the bounce give some trapped bulls an opportunity to sell higher/ will new bad news clock the market again?



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/da ... -makeover/














http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/ro ... -indicted/
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02 ... on-decline
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02 ... hart-graph



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/le ... t-on-food/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-2 ... rowth.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/wh ... re-voting/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 86844.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market ... 2011-02-22
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011 ... tries.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-2 ... river.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41803428/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/so ... -surprise/
http://www.debka.com/article/20712/






Stay tooned.....
















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Life Is About Cycles, Dialectical Materialism And Spiritual Concatenation, Yin And Yang, Secular And Cyclical, Two Stroke And Four Stroke.... 

"When the Fed is the bartender everybody drinks until they fall down."
— Paul McCulley


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Young And Old Is Another Cycle...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx606E2O ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZXMWklGf84
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEPoCzsj ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqSeaoDxGtA&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOAcu6vX ... re=related

Speakin' of young, I saw Cotton a coupla times at the 'mo a coupla years after the Howlin' Wolf video. He showed up with a little club set up and mowed the house down. His version of Bobby "Blue" Bland's "Turn On Your Love Light" was a stand out...


Then there some boomin' Harley 4stroke twins and KR's TZ 700 and a Kawi 2 stroke @ Laguna... Cycles......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uesfZUjM ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6YkutGxkz4


I used to watch the Warriors until they turned into the Clippers. But now even the Clippers aren't the Clippers anymore...
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... -for-2010/



Smokin' Seven Weeks





I Can Bank Half Of A Good Year's Return Monday Or Shortly There After. Or Give It All Back. Or Ride It Farther Downa Road. Thinking......
And Watching With My Finger Onna Eject Button.


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/cycles-sectors/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/su ... events-19/
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_ ... k_bachmann
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/ ... n_the.html
http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2011/02/ ... -recovery/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/ec ... -is-split/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/mo ... more-63330
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/an ... k-for-now/
http://blogs.forrester.com/george_colon ... _for_apple
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/go ... nflations/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/thursday-reads-8/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/a- ... more-63361
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/me ... s-in-2006/


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/mo ... more-63330


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/fa ... ddle-east/












This Is EXTREME And Now I'm REALLY squirrelly about staying long. I've got a lot of gains to keep, and the potential for substantial losses in a short time.




Close Your Eyes Wisconsin, This Is Gonna HURT!!!
http://www.newdeal20.org/2011/02/21/how ... ids-36483/






Today was UGLY!!!

Discretion Is The Better Part Of Valor

During lunch I went from 95% Stocks to 99% Cash (Stable Value Fund) with minimal effect from the rapid trading rules. Let's let things settle down. I can get back in in one day, but as the old song goes, "Don't Make Your Move Too soon..."







Stay Tooned....

















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Talked To A Business Agent At The Last Meeting. There Are Four Of My Apprentice Class Still Active. Two Are In The Business Office And Two Are Still Working In The Field. Makes Me Wanna Ride Fast And Take Chances. 

It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible.
--Mark Twain


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



James Cotton had some smokin' performances at the Monterey Jazz Festival's Sat Afternoon Blues Show that are out there waiting to be discovered. They were broadcast live on KJAZ. My tapes were DBX encoded, dubbed to cassette, and long gone. The KJAZ announcer had it right. "These guys could start a riot inna graveyard."

Inna mean time;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTDpsOY2dX4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZXMWklGf84
http://www.jamescottonsuperharp.com




THE MARKET IS A BEAST WITHOUT PAWS...



Uptrend still intact... I'm still innit to the hilt, still with the finger onna eject button.



Excellent first six weeks. Gotta think about possibility and advisability of bookin' profits at some point. This is about a third of what I like to see for the year....

Just because it may make sense doesn't mean I'm gonna do it...









MONDAY.




ANOTHER up day

Uptrend STILL intact... I'm STILL innit to the hilt, STILL with the finger onna eject button. I'm STILL big time concerned. But I'm getting pretty jaded and can't see that it is doing me much good...

Still.....


Tuesday...



Still Long. Looks Like A Pause. A little pullback from a long way up there. It's not time yet......



Wednesday




Even more up, blah blah blah,,,,,

Stay Tooned....












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Nothing Sharpens Your Appreciation Of Life And Clarifies The Difference Between Fear And Respect Like Looking Over The Edge. But That's A Third Beer Story.... 

"Worry does not empty tomorrow of its sorrow; it empties today of its strength."
Corrie Ten Boom


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.



Now For Something cOmPlEtElY dIfFeReNt....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thWtzBsd ... re=related



Speaking of Fear and Respect...

The Markets are always about the balance between Greed and Fear. Lately it is all about greed and the fear of losing out, not losses.




Wall Street always comes back to it's roots... which is Main Street. And Main Street ain't pretty lately. Especially compared to Wall Street. My asset allocation is all about taking what Wall Street offers with an I on the door. Will I get out in time?

I upped my contributions inna 401a when we got some decent choices 6 years ago and that and good and aggressive asset allocation has got the balance and the daily volatility up to where the good days are party hearty and the bad days are like stepping onna rake in tall grass. If I'da had decent choices for the full 20 years of the 401a, now'd be all about nicking some bases on hits on good pitches and I'd have a lot of comfort about retiring is a coupla three or four weeks instead of three or four years after I've run it all the way out...

Oh Well. That's a different life. Somebody else's. So now I gotta get what I can outta what I got inna 401a. Come to think of it, I'm real comfortable with that. YMMV.







http://www.businessweek.com/print/inves ... 188359.htm



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-0 ... estor.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/in ... -in-egypt/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/eg ... democracy/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/fo ... democracy/
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/feat ... table=true
http://www.economist.com/node/18070170? ... 03-02-2011
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/nf ... ver-least/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/en ... more-62899
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-ne ... ction.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/ho ... od-prices/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41442005/ns ... ork_times/





http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/me ... -coverage/


So Merrill Lynch’s coverage of Irish banking, before the crisis, was dead on. And they threw their analyst under the bus to whore for more banking fees. Cowards. Criminal toadies. Chickenshit pimps who would sell their mothers into forced prostitution for a buck. That is Merrill Lynch, and the fact that a single goddamned dollar of my tax money went to these spineless, money-grubbing parasites makes my stomach turn. If Goldman Sachs is a vampire squid, then Merrill Lynch is Escherichia coli of banking. Whatever they touch gets sick, and occasionally dies.






http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/am ... -to-egypt/





Still long, still concerned, still ready to bail. The broad market is up around 25% since Sept, never mind since March 09. I'm balancing the rapid trading restrictions, the trend, the need to book profits and avoid losses, and squirreliness of losing what has not come easy and won't be easily replaced. A correction of 4% to 10% would not be unexpected. A correction of 10% to 20% would not be beyond the pale. The thought of grinding hard to get back to even from an unexpected flash crash or downside panic is not welcome. Multi year bull markets are a lot more fun. Autopilot up day after day is low stress. Bear market rallys can be viciously explosive to the upside and can be exhilerating, but they can go down farther and faster than they went up too.

Still, I have all the the tools and info I need short of prescience, so WTF.




Monday Eve...

DAMN! One Gawddamn up day after another without surcease. How long can Wall Street dance to the stars in the face of Main Street doin' the Main Street Moan?

I'm Keepin' On Chooglin' with tight stops on the IRA's and Tradin' Account and ready to pull the rip chord on the 401a.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUzl7_OpVLA





http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00114.html


Tuesday



Another Day, Another Dollar Or Two.......

The longer it goes higher, the greater the rubber band is stretched, the more violent the snap back will be. The crazier the upside, the sweeter the gains, the greater the pains of giving a substantial chunk of it back.

I don't have a whole lotta fear. But I do have respect for consequences. That translates into a higher state of alertness and a determination to avoid giving ANY more back than what is absolutely unavoidable...

Wed Eve...


More O The Same... Tick, Tick, Tick.....



See Ya At The Hall


Thurs


Even More More Of The Same....

But Is It Rolling Over...?








Stay Tooned...
















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Never A Dull Moment.... Events In The World Take Their Own Course... Egyptian Tanks In Cairo Can't Clear This Year's Tiananmen Square, So They Send Jets and Copters? 

"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security,"
-- John Allen Paulos



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wTXv9KPWeg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL4-QSj5 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1mV_5-b ... re=related
Derringer sized guitarist.....


Things are in a state of flux. We had recovered well from last week's downdraft. Then the uncertainty of a political crisis in Egypt. The market hates uncertainty and I came home Friday to find that most but not all of the weeks recovery taken back.


Bad day in the S&P. Monday will tell the tale....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/ ... 6020110130
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... ostpopular
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... fe-support
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/taufiq-ra ... 15860.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 7312.story
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/mid ... 00899.html


http://www.stratfor.com/

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/



Good Sources...



Monday eve.



Still way long. Dead cat bounce today back from the brink of last Friday. It'd be nice to recapture the narrow channel, But I'd take staying within the wide channel and continuing up quite happily... It looks tenuous... But staying long in the face of all that is prudent and conservative has been the right thing to do for a long long time. So I'll keep on keeping on... But I'm just living with it and I'm not married to it.

One day long will be wrong and I hope I'll catch on quick. maybe tomorrow...maybe not.

I've got a lot of respect for Barry's macro analysis and his tutoring over the years.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/fu ... -overview/




Stay tooned....



Well, That's That!




Pretty Much Business As Usual....
You Can't Go Wrong If You Stay Long.

Well, You CAN Go Wrong By Being Long, And Big Time Wrong Too. But The Market Will Do It To Us Big Time When It Is Damn Good And Ready. Until Then...Party On!!!!!



More Of The Same....




It Looks Like All Is Well...

We've Regained The Narrow Ascending Channel,

I'm Still Nervous And I'm Still Not A Believer.... But I Am Still A Player. Steady As It Goes, All Eyes Look Sharp....

Still Way Long In The Most Aggressive Fundz Inna 401a.

http://www.debka.com/article/20623/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/category/thinktank/
http://www.comstockfunds.com/%28X%281%2 ... group=Home
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/fn ... pmmergsms/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ho ... tigate-it/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 96324.html
http://canonical.org/~kragen/egypt-massacre-sotu.html


Thurs Eve....



Still Long An' It's Still Workin' For Me...
Still Squirelly About It. Gritted Teeth And Itchy Trigger Finger.


Stay Tooned....









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It Don't Look That Bad, Really .... It Sure Feels Bad, Though..... Could Feel Worse Tomorrow. 

You can't trust anything the government says. Wait, I knew that already. Thanks for nothing, Julian Assange.
-- Paul Vigna


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



...Then You'll Never Hear Surf Music Again....
--Jimi Hendrix Re; Dick Dale's Critical Illness

Akshully, I Got My Deck Shoe Surfer Tennies and Short Sleeve Madras Shirtz On And Here's Some Surf Music To Go Wit' 'em....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8__EwAT ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqC3BjIy ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWw55XhT ... re=related

Yeah That Is Who You Think It Is. And Chris Spedding Too...
I was unaware of the relationships between Dick Dale and Hendrix and Dick Dale, Leo Fender, and JBL.



Bloody Costly Days Continued...

So I'm All In Inna Two Most Aggressive Fundz Inna 401A.

And the post parabolic move/beginning of the earnings reports dollar losses in the account are a kick inna gonads. It brings home to me why so many of the guys I work and hang with are so comfortable with all their money in the GIC/Stable Value Fund. We've got 20-30 years inna trades and some coin inna 401a. We got the possibility of some serious upside moves in a few days or weeks time in the 401a account. But we also got the possibility of some breath taking moves down in a bad week. In the end, we gotta go with what lets us sleep at night. For some, that is the cash equivalent fund in the 401a and a regular coupla percent a year up in the account and no wild and crazy up days and stoopid bleeding from the eyeballs down days. Nothing wrong with recognizing that what you have in the 401a is a significant amount to you and worth being concerned about. Once you see daily or weekly balances bouncing around and gaining and losing you significantly more than you earn at work that week, you are obligated to make a choice about how to deal with it. Eliminating the possibility of losing what you got, making a very modest return and sleeping soundly is a totally acceptable choice. To deny that would be dumber than a box of rocks. Which I ain't.

But I see things differently than most other people. I still have a race bike and I think about track days and racing again. I'm kinda like into action and motion as a life style and a preferred mode of operation. It takes all kinds.... that's why choices exist. And I ain't alone... There are guys I've shown the what and how to who are playing the game the same as I am, for whatever their own reasons are.

So....

I'm getting enough of a balance in the 401a where what was a few dollars move due to everyday ordinary market volatility is now some serious coin up and down. Gotta readjust my concepts here. If I see the huge upside days as part of the process and can work with them, I gotta be able to deal with the other side of the deal too.

So Check out the chartz.



Looks like a parabolic move up in a short time that paid off big time.

So I'm building my 401a like mad when the weather is good. Sometimes a Summer storm or the first few storms of the Fall soak everything, blow the tarps around and maybe fuck up something badly enough that it takes time and money to fix it. Ain't no big thing. It's the price of getting something done. At least it ain't noo big thing as long as I don't let it become a big thing. I gotta secure everything for the winter when the time comes and react in the case of an unexpected tornado on the horizon...



In the last week, I've lost in my 401a what would have been a totally unacceptable amount of money 15 years ago. Like say the first three years of contributions and investment gains. Or, looked at differently, I've gotten my nose tagged hard enough to remind me that bad things can happen and that the chart above says that bad things might be eminent. The uptrend is just barely intact, is extended and has been unrelenting and parabolic, and has been cruisin' for a bruisin'. The market might be starting to roll over hard after an explosive move up and there are a lot of people with profits to protect and the downtrend could get ferocious. I really haven't been hurt yet. My eyes are watering and there's a spot of blood on my sleeve, but here is not a lot of damage done. But I have been warned.


Staying long in the face of every reasonable appeal to prudence and caution has worked and worked well for the last 90 days. Nothing lasts forever...




http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/si ... s-fck-you/


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41188877/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/th ... b-killers/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41103288/ns ... itol_hill/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wi ... kruptcies/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/qo ... l-economy/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/market-structure/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41097319/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ho ... more-62383
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41043127/ns ... al_estate/
http://debka.com/article/20558/
http://debka.com/article/20558/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/no ... -long-run/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41086473/ns ... ork_times/



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/se ... doug-kass/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wh ... the-u-s-a/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ch ... tail-risk/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/su ... events-15/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/gd ... recession/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ho ... ck-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/th ... more-62281
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/20 ... more-62271
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/mo ... wine-gold/



Stay tooned.















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