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Boy, I Sure Screwed That One Up....But ...That Was Last Night. From Zero To Hero And From Chump To Champ In 8 Hours...
Sunday, November 27, 2011, 07:51 PM
"The market is not a sofa, it is not a place to get comfortable."
Jim Cramer
Makes Me Feel Better...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs-HwuZw ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqashW66D7o
It's been a bad coupla weeks and I've lost concentration and let some things slide due to personal issues. I had some very bad news about one of my favorite persons in my life. And it's cost me concentration and focus on the matters at hand. It couldn't a' happened at a worse time either. My thesis for the year's end looks like it was wrong and I was set up long stocks when the markets cratered on the Euro news. I shoulda cut back or bailed a lot sooner but, knowing that there was gonna be bad news before there was good news, I stayed too long too long based on hope, a poor strategy. Damn.
My losses inna market pretty much pales in comparison to the losses in my personal life. That said, I've got responsibilities to me and my family for the future as well as for what will soon be in the past.....so....
It's Not A Sin To Be Wrong, But It Is A Sin To Stay Wrong.
So How Bad Is It?
I can fix this. In absolute terms I lost a chunk o' money in two weeks. Practically speaking, Not So Much. Year to date, the Balanced Pooled Fund is down a little over 1%, I'm down a little under 2% from up 4%, the best stock fund is down 4%, the worst stock fund is down 15%, and the Stable Value Fund is up 2% and the best bond fund is up 5%. My losses are not even a hiccup on the long term chart and I can fix this.
I'm going to cash/bonds and derisking within the restrictions of the 401 and in a market where everyone is leaning the same way and that may provide me an opportunity to undo some damage... Getting less long is the order of the day and the week, and I've never lost money since I began to actively manage my 401 and I'm not going to be stoopid about trying to keep the streak alive. I made money in 2008, but things looked so shitty then, so that going to cash was a no brainer; Hell, no brainers are my specialty. This year was actually a tougher call. Too choppy. But a nine percent annual return '04 to date, down a whole point in 2 weeks still ain't half shabby and I can live w/ that.
  ( 3 / 1126 )
The Tea Party Last Year And The Occupy Wall Street Movement This Year. Shades Of The Sixties And Seventies!!. Maybe A Third Or Fourth Party? Oh Boy! This Generation's Choice Between Perot/Iaccoca And Nader!! Louis Louis..... Me Gotta Go Now ...
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 05:55 PM
Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.
--Unknown
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/hu ... t-roundup/
TUES
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... t-traders/
http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/
The Chart Don't Look Good... We're still stick inna range, we're just barely 3/4s of the way through the range onna upside, not much upside left, lotsa resistance above, everybody HATES the volatility and a lot of investors have given up. We're prolly going into a recession (40% to 100% plus/minus prob so far)... Europe is gonna implode, China is slowing down, the entire US government is FUBAR, etc...
What the hell, I edged a little money outa bonds and inta stocks...
End of the year coming up... money managers gotta inflate the market if they're gonna be paid and the market ain't the economy. Sooner or later we will go up again, shame not to have a mindset that accepts change and reality when one acts on the other....
I'm started in if we the the usual year end melt up and I'm not so far in that I can't get out with only a little damage.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... egativity/
 ( 2.9 / 1098 )
Forty Years Ago, I Didn't Understand Why All The Old Timers Ever Talked About Was Retiring. It Gets Clearer Every Year....
Friday, September 30, 2011, 05:42 PM
Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz
Marshall Tucker Was A Rock Band Before They Were Country. I Saw 'em Open For The Allman Bros New Years Eve Show Inna 70's. SMOKIN'....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEOV5vWfSgI
It's Been A Rotten Week Inna Market... But There Is An Answer To The Social Security Problem.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/so ... e-younger/
I Have half A Dozen Go to Guys...Lakshuman Is One...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/le ... recession/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/su ... s-9-30-11/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ucktember/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.
And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... cal-union/
MONDAY MONDAY....
A Most Thoroughly Unpleasant Day.
Blues An' New Orleans Piano Onna Turntable.....
Saturday, September 17, 2011, 03:38 PM
If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.
-- Catherine Aird
Monday Eve...
I don't like the news flow, I don't like the breadth, I don't like the macro, I don't like the unfinished business, I don't like the disconnect between Main St and Wall St. I like that bailing out in may was right, if a little early...
But if we get to 1230 and confirm a breakout, I'll have to figure what I don't like don't matter.....
But regardless of whether or not I end up liking it if and when it happens, I don't like it today.
Wed
Rev Shark and a lotta other guys are of the opinion that if we hit the 1120 to 1105 level hard, it won't hold. The next level of support is a long way down and the drop could be breathtaking... Lotta risk right here... And I don't see the reward.
When I look at returns YTD
I feel better and better to be outa stocks. I will buy some hand over fist at some point... prolly from sellers who wished they had sold them earlier and for more money.... At the right price, almost everything makes sense for a trade. But for a 401, I wanna buy stuff when the charts go from lower left to upper right.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... t-dummies/
Thursday
Yup, bear flag in a bear market. Same old nasty downdraft in once again in progress. There is a bottom and the bottom somewhere below.
Hang on.
Closer to buying back in than I was... startin' to begin to think about it....
Rough day. prolly not the last....
I'll be back....
Ya Get One Life. Enjoy It While Ya Got It... Rest In Sobriety And Decorum When Yer Dead. WFO Until You See God, Count Ta Two....And THEN Hit The Brakes.
Friday, September 9, 2011, 08:23 PM
"The primary objective of leadership is to help those who are doing poorly to do well and to help those who are doing well to do even better."
-- Jim Rohn
Bonds and cash inna 401a. Protecting what I got. There are old riders and bold riders. But there ain't no old bold riders. At least not without luck and brains and the experience to know the difference. I'm an old bold rider, and I'm parked under the overpass, waiting out the weather.
In the discussion that followed, the city officials asked a few technical questions, and Arthur Nusbaum expressed concern over a shortage of certified welders who had passed the city's structural-welding test. That would not be a problem, the representatives from the Department of Buildings replied; one of the area's most trusted steel inspectors, Neil Moreton, would have the power to test and immediately certify any welder that Citicorp's repair project required. Nusbaum recalls, "Once they said that, I knew we were O.K., because there were steamfitter welders all over the place who could do a fantastic job."
Before the city officials left, they commended LeMessurier for his courage and candor, and expressed a desire to be kept informed as the repair work progressed. Given the urgency of the situation, that was all they could reasonably do. "It wasn't a case of 'We caught you, you skunk,'" Nusbaum says. "It started with a guy who stood up and said, 'I got a problem, I made the problem, let's fix the problem.' If you're gonna kill a guy like LeMessurier, why should anybody ever talk?"
http://www.duke.edu/~hpgavin/ce131/citicorp1.htm
I pay very serious attention to Rick Bookstaber. Read "A Demon of Our Own Design" To Understand Why.
http://rick.bookstaber.com/2011/08/work ... night.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/techn ... .html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/opini ... g-but.html
http://www.economist.com/node/21528635
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... xes-growth
http://joefahmy.com/2011/09/11/why-i-co ... o-sit-out/
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09 ... d-edition/
So far, So good....So What? STILL All Cash and Bonds and Still Feelin' Awright! About It ....
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09 ... work/all/1
http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-re ... 1314907779
http://vimeo.com/28940439
WEDNESDAY....
We closed near 1190 onna S&P today. I bailed out 150 points higher about 4 months ago. Resistance is 10 and 70 points higher. Support is 70 and 90 points lower. If that support fails, like onna bad headline plunge, next stop down could be WAY down. And have no doubt; the market is inna headline driven bear market phase. We have to write off Greece. We have to worry about Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. But see, if I knew enough to worry about Belgium, then I'd really be worried about bad headlines. We're at two and a half bounces. Two and a half.... That rings a bell and it ain't a good one.
I'm in a wait and see mode. In cash and bonds....
THURSDAY
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/at ... -tomorrow/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/we ... nform-you/
Stay Tooned....
It Looks Like The Next 5 Years Are Going To Be The "Interesting Times" Of The Old Chinese/Jewish/American Saying..... Google It....
Saturday, August 6, 2011, 12:57 PM
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
J Tull started out as a blues band and quickly evolved into Ian Anderson's vision of an rock ensemble. I've always liked Tull, but the early version with so much raw talent and different directions was never equaled.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 66284.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 91320.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 83290.html
http://www.performing-musician.com/pm/s ... bunker.htm
Bonds... Check out my website.... Asset allocation will save yer ass at times like this....
I've spent some time corresponding with Dan Fitzpatrick and this is an excellent example of his work. I'm not a regular follower of his service but he's got a lot worth listening to...
http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3264.cfm
So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... than-ever/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... e-curtain/
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.
I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... -a-sudden/
Monday Eve
I Have This List...
...it's of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.
DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....
There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/on ... f-america/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ma ... r-are-you/
TUES
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mes-first/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/09/wet-n-wild/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... sh-legacy/
WED EVE...
We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...
I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 34052.html
THURS.....
Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.
But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....
Stay Tooned.....
Got My Mojo Workin'... Got My Mojo Workin'...... Jes' Doan' Work On You. McKinley Morganfield
Friday, July 29, 2011, 11:49 PM
"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
-- Woody Allen
Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.
Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com
McKinley...
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/muddy-wat ... 00374.html
I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....
Bonds and cash....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201107 ... ly-germany
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/an ... all-speed/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html
TUESDAY!!!!!
WED...
Thursday
Stay tooned....
I Listened To An Ex Senator Alan Simpson Interview On The Bi Partisan Deficit Report....Horrifying...I Think It Is Fixable. I'm Not Sure It Will Be....
Friday, July 15, 2011, 11:45 PM
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
— Michael Crichton
Death Is Nature's Way Of Telling You To Slow Down. Kinda The Ultimate Excuse. Until Then, No Excuses....
Saturday, July 2, 2011, 03:04 PM
"In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is."
-- Yogi Berra
Taj and Keef do my two favorite versions of Leaving Trunk. Here's both of them. if only video had been around when Keef's band did Born To Die.... What do Ian Cruikshank and Spit James have in common?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SHlnUr ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIzSy8Ln ... re=related
An' a little Taj Mahal channelin' Howlin' Wolf.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyP07ybz ... re=related
An a little Keef Hartley and Spit James....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6SQ1A0k ... re=related
OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!!! Smokin' week inna market. And I was All Cash. It stings, but it still may have been the responsible thing to do. Stay tooned and I'll explain why.....
I got out at 1 because the economy sucked, the Fed was through stuffing the bank vaults with cash, ya can't buy houses if yer unemployed, the banks make safer money buying treasuries than loaning money for interest, Greeks were getting their Visa card limits raised so as to borrow to make the monthly, China inflation and GDP was running into a slowing world economy, and the first glimpse of the next recession is occurring with 9% to 17% unemployment today ,depending on what yer smokin'.
It looked as expected at 2 & 3 & 4.
At 5, with everyone leaning the same way after 4 down weeks, the paint the tape game started early because of the end the quarter. Once the buyers lit up the tape, the scramble to get outa shorts and inta longs got frantic. the only red that week was end of the days locking in profits and after lunch onna 30th locking in profits.
So.... Tuesday. A lotta guys show up having missed the run up and waiting on earnings inna week or two. Do they (I) buy at the highs? Or do they say, "Aw RIGHT!!! A chance to unload at the prices I missed last month ...SELL EVERYTHING!! Is the stock market saying "Everything is better, we washed out the timid and it's UP, UP, AN' AWAY. Or is it saying " We brutalized the cautious, now let's break the foolhardy.
See, I just don't see how much has changed inna last month. Greece is patched over, but the German public is less and less sure about floatin' the rest of the EZ. The economy? Wall Street vs Main St? A recession on the horizon? QE3? Do i see the way home?
Dunno. But discipline trumps conviction. Price is truth and in my IRAs and trading account, I'm long and undiversified and even margined in the trading account. I can do what I wanna, when I wanna, All in long to all out in the click of an iphone. Last week was good But that is not the way it is with my 401a. There are rules and restrictions on what, when, and how often. I gotta move deliberately, like moving a building down the street, not a car.
This is the other side of a Bull Market, when I'll go 100% long the most aggressive funds and ride undiversified through the dips and hiccups. The down days or weeks 'll be nothing another few days or weeks of up won't fix.
This is a Secular Bear Market where the news is bad, sell offs are relentless and the updrafts are absolutely vicious. I gotta deal with missing the ups as the price of missing the downs. I'm in cash now and I expect to be in cash until I see a reason not to be...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43633233/ns ... _business/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... other.html
The blast back to recent highs left a lot of investors on the outside lookin' in. That is a ready made cabal of dip buyers. The market can work off the overbought condition by going down and letting the left out in all at once at a lower price, or it can chop around and let the left out in a few at a time, correcting in time instead of price.
Or it can run head on into a a horrible jobs report or a Italy/Spain EU conflagration and undo the last week's launch upward all a once and continue down through the 200 day moving average.
Standing by in cash. I missed 80 points in 5 days, I ain't gonna chase it if I don't have any idea where it is going.... The market is going to be open tomorrow, next week, next month and next year too. I'm going to wait to commit until I have some clarity...
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11174104 ... ivity.html
Stay tooned.
We're Not As Far Down As We Were In March, But It Feels A Lot Worse.... Kinda Like 84 Degrees F at 7:30 AM Feels Different Than 84 Degrees F At 3:30 PM. Feels Like Something Serious Is Onna Way.....
Friday, June 17, 2011, 11:33 PM
People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.
-- Jean Monnet
You start with everybody in cash or short. Then someone goes, "Hey, Waidaminute!! Who's left to sell and/or go to cash? What if the only thing left to do is buy?" With everybody leaning the same way, it doesn't take much to ignite a stampede the other way. It looks like a ferocious short covering and chasing runaway stocks rally.
The fundamentals suck. If the market confirms the launch, I will figure out what to do then. Right now, it feels too much like a bear trap....
Still all cash....
Stay Tooned.....
Ya Don't Slow Down, Ya Never Grow Old. ----- Tom Petty . . . . I'll Let Ya Know How It Works Out....
Saturday, May 21, 2011, 02:25 AM
"If you keep thinking about what you want to do or what you hope will happen, you don't do it, and it won't happen."
-- Joe DiMaggio
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ha ... h-fer-two/
We got a lower high and a lower low and a close under the 50 day MA. And I got to 99+% Met Life Stable Value Fund... Now I wait....
What it all means...
Going from 95 % stock to all cash was a good idea, well timed.
This is an example of having all your boats in the water when the wind and the currents are working for you (9/10 to 5/11) and seeking shelter when conditions get sketchy (last coupla weeks).
I can't tell the future, I'm not privy to the conversations at the highest levels of business and government, I don't have inside information, and I still have title to my soul.
I do, however possess a certain degree of perceptivity and ratiocination such that I can see what is in front of me and figure out what I'm looking at. That's all ya really need...
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011 ... 071/#img07
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/al ... 0-day-m-a/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ne ... more-66061
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/201 ... at-the-sp/
Tuesday Eve...
A "V" Shaped bounce looks less likely. I'm positioned for some serious down side. I may not get it. This might just be a brief pause while some temporary issues or seasonality are worked out. Or it could be the start of a significant down draft ending 10% to 25% down with a huge wash out amid chaos and despair...
Either way, I'll buy when I like what I see.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05 ... defaulted/
As High Frequency Economics says today: “Underlying problems of over-borrowed nations are not fixed by lending them more money.”
Stay Tooned...
What Happens To The Party (The Markets) When The Fed Takes Away The Punch Bowl (Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] )?
Saturday, May 14, 2011, 01:51 PM
Just remember one thing: there are no good stocks. They all suck. Even those that are making you money are going to turn on you sooner or later. The only stock you should say anything good about is the one you no longer own that made you money.
--Reverend Shark
What Happens When The Fed Takes Away Free Money (ZIRP)? It Really Ain't That Hard To Figure Out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtsClj04 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5IS45jT ... re=related
Pretty radical change in posture over the last month:
I'm down from 90% stocks just weeks ago to 33% this weekend, to anywhere from 20% to 0% anytime this week depending on how urgent I feel the need to get ultra defensive is....
It's a risk/reward thing, see? I been way long for a while, since 9/10. I made some serious coin last year. But there's limits. Making money was easy between late '04 and late 2008. I went 100% stocks, checked everything every Saturday morning and every so often trimmed my allocation toward the hot fundz. I was onna sidelines in cash during the 08/09 WHOOSH down. I read enough to make me certain that it was all risk and no reward so I cashed outa stocks into the GIC. I made money by not losing money. I mean I actually made money in 08. Coupla hundred simoleans beats a gaping smokin' pit inna 401a. I was late rejoining the party in the spring of 09. I let a lot of gains go bye bye because caution had served me so well previously. I didn't really understand the new religion of free money from the FED until 9/10. But there ain't no true believer like a recent convert so I got wit it. All stocks alla time.
That was then an' this is now. I'm gonna play onna other side of the street for a while. Yeah, I'm really aggressive when it comes to reachin' out for gains. It's what I do. But I balance that by being really aggressive protecting gains. I risk serious losses by being all the way long when I think the markets are goin' up. If the market turns against me, I can get roughed up onna way out. The rapid trading restrictions means there is a price to bailing out inna hurry. Ya gotta be smart aggressive; listen for the sirens and move closer to the door.
The other side of that is that caution and getting out early can leave you looking in the windows at the party. Coupla three four days of upward whoosh watched through the windows can sting hard enough to make yer eyes water. But, Oh Well! you never go broke realizing gains and booking profits. And a few dollars left onna table can be thought of as insurance premiums or the cost of admission. I can live with that. What's made me cautious over the last six weeks is starting to wear on me. Time for some fresh air and a rest. Nothing clears the head and resets the game like the view from the sidelines.
There is nothing that will benefit your portfolio more than avoiding losses when the market is acting poorly. If you can keep from incurring losses in your portfolio as the market falls, you avoid the very unproductive task of recouping losses once the market is more favorable.
James “Reverend Shark” DePorre
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/lo ... economics/
http://alephblog.com/ Check out "The Impossible Dream Part 2"
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 23_pf.html
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/20 ... y_gen.html
Damn!! Meant to lighten up onna stocks today. Forgot to enter the orders. Got 'em entered for tomorrow.
I'm a trend and momentum investor. I see damn little momentum and the trend looks to be rolling over. If I can pick up a majority of the up and miss out on summa da down, I figure that's pretty copacetic. Bull markets are a much easier environment to invest in and I'd rather just go long and hang on. But that's a recipe for disaster during certain times.... like this one.. .
WED EVE
Up day inna market and I'm pretty much a day or two from an all cash position (Met Life Stable Value). I'll write more as to how and why this weekend. For now, I'm banking gains from the first four months of the year, stepping back from risks I identify in the market technicals, acknowledging concerns identified by what I consider to be reliable and informed sources, and taking a breather. Should we get yet another "V" shaped bounce, I'm in a position to go long as fast as I wanna without triggering rapid trading restrictions penalties... If we go down big time, an all cash is a good thing indeed...
A coupla moves still to go, done by next Monday, and then I wait. A day, A week, A month, Or three.
Stay Tooned....
Another Day, Another Drachma... Or Simolean. Whatever....
Saturday, May 7, 2011, 04:13 PM
"Money isn't the most important thing in life, but it's reasonably close to oxygen on the "gotta have it" scale."
-- Zig Ziglar
One Gawdamn Treasure After Another.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE0xG7OD ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CxVSM6F ... re=related
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/be ... t-be-nice/
We got higher highs and higher lows. We got a failed support line and a working support line. We got a dead cat bounce on lower volume after four days down from a multi year high. Beneath the indexes we have a WHOOSH down in commodities. We have leading stocks and sectors looking queasy. We got extended stocks without support after serious run ups. We have hot money bailing out of the trade dejour. We have risk vs reward, fear vs greed, and risk management vs asset allocation.
I've pulled back some serious coin. I'm more concerned about the return OF capital than the return ON capital.
If we launch higher Monday and don't look back, I've still got money inna game. just not as much as I like. I can fix that.
If Friday was short covering and bargain hunters seeing bargains compared to a week ago, we might continue/resume falling and this might be the non "V" shaped bounce/correction I've kinda been expecting. In that case, I still have too much money inna game.
I can fix that too.
We'll see.
http://www.debka.com/article/20912/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... andal.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... -bail.html
Big Time Important 401a Investor Stuff
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/wh ... d-manager/
http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/ ... spx?page=0
Stay tooned...
IF YOU ARE GOING TO FIGHT TO SAVE THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS, YOUR FIRST OBLIGATION IS TO SAVE YOURSELF. WE NEED NUMBERS ON OUR SIDE TO BALANCE THE MONEY ON THE OTHER SIDE. START BY MAKING YOUR 401A WORK FOR YOU. YOU FIGHT BEST FROM A FIRM FOOTING ON A SOLID FOUNDATION. HERE'S WHAT I'M DOING...
Saturday, April 30, 2011, 01:33 PM
I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position.
-- Mark Twain
It's Really Really Fun, Boys And Girls, And So Very Educational Too....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/fi ... round-two/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/la ... aventador/
I went deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon April 29th...
“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find one despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”
-- Ed Yardini
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