I've Had Worse Years....I've Had Better Years Too... 

"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."
-- James A. Michener

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Bonamassa. 'nuff said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxqYoZi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46UFXQVS ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0lIZHsp ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... vqFY2eM6jA

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... until-2021
http://www.smartmoney.com/small-busines ... 801218019/

This is one the regular weekly posts on my website... That this is for the end of the year makes this one noteworthy....

This is the first table above reordered. The first table above is ordered to make data entry easier/match with previous versions/my mind set. This one is ordered by ranking the individual 401 investment funds from most lost over the year to most gained. There is info here.

Cycles, ya know? Lookit the chart below.

This is a fund I've had available in the 401 since late '04. Cycles. When the winds and currents are working for you, even in as treacherous and potentially gawdawful a place as the North Atlantic, you put everything that floats in the water to make what you can when you can. When winter comes, the currents go against you and the wind goes every which way, you take what you've made during the spring and summer and hole up someplace inland that's warm and dry and stay there doing stuff that makes sense until something changes. Look at the chart. You can see multiyear cycles as well as short term cycles. The time to pay attention to both the long term and short term cycles came this year.

So..... What I did this year was go big into stocks when the weather looked OK, like for the first three months. We are in a short term bull market off the financial crisis lows of 2009 and the recent trend is up. But I never got out of sight of the shore. We are in a long term multi-decade bear market. The major trend is down. When things got dark, I went to bonds and stayed there. When the weather looked like it was lightening up, end of the year, I went back to stocks but only part way, again with one eye on the sky and one eye on the shore. This was a short term play as written about over the last few weeks.
Over the course of the year, I exposed myself to the upside and down side and made some and lost some. I was rigorous about cutting losses; the flip side to letting winners run. I gave back some from my high water mark, but ended up positive for the year and ahead of the default position.

Check out the table below.

If I'd picked the right one of the dozen investment funds available to the 401 and went all in at the beginning of the year, I'da made 1/2 of one percent more with much larger drawdowns, i.e. greater risk. The second best fund, I'da made 3/10s of one percent more. My account, managed by "timing the market" with available 401 investment funds (I prefer to think of it as "managed with capital preservation and risk management goals"), would have placed third out of 13, with very low exposure to risk for a good chunk of the year.

I've had better years. I've had worse years too. Not losing money can be really good. Making a handfulla Simoleans or a Drachma or two after the accounts are settled can be a major victory. Like here and now.

But it was a fair amount of work for not much return. Or was it? I have friends who've been in bonds since the crash. This year that worked really well for them. Last year and the year before, it didn't. The year before that, it was un-fucking-believable. Ya gotta view it in the context of your balance in the 401, the demands of life and family, and where you are in life, and what is going on around you. I just did the math and I'm down wid' it. I got some coin outa the 401 when three funds lost more than 10% and the very best fund made a return that looked like a old time passbook savings account.

Pretty cool, huh?

Feelin' Awright, Actually I'm Feeling Pretty Good Myself......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Wk1zmb ... re=related
-- Not Traffic

I think I'll buy some Bonamassa CD/DVD's. I'm pretty sure I made enough to cover that anna piece a pizza anna beer.....

Good To Know
http://rightwingnews.com/election-2012/ ... -semitism/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... veals.html
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... surowiecki
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/page/26 ... most_a_tot

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/fe ... ut-europe/


Re Ron Paul

Seventeen years and all of 4 bills made it to the floor and the one on selling a single piece of surplus government real estate passed. What a career.

"The unlikely elevation of a 76-year-old crank, with a few strange views and who has been rejected twice before as a presidential candidate, says a lot about the state of Republican politics."
-- Albert R. Hunt / Bloomberg

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... 21/English

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archi ... -view.html


http://dealbreaker.com/2012/01/convicte ... -his-scam/

Stay tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 1195 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1175 )
Merry Christmas... Please Remember Those With Less Reason to be Merry.....  

(I was) At a Wall Street bar yesterday listening to a trader make an impassioned defense of Mr. Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life" and blaming the Bailey Building & Loan for the subprime crisis.
-- Kamal Khan

I was at a party last weekend and one of the guests, a 0.05 percenter (aka extremely wealthy), made an impassioned speech against food stamps. And I quote him directly: "I'm against food stamps." When pressed on his logic, he simply stated "I don't believe in them."
-- Mark Casa

Billham Cobley. No strong hand and an independence between keeping time and left right strokes.
Tony Williams. Ex Miles Davis and a demon to keep up with when he was hot...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGx9TPcE ... F84A70E0F9
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEC5KGS8 ... B5RVPF-RBn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBwxnMPP ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ4wdqdP ... playnext=2

Tables And Chart Zup @ www.joefacer.com

http://asada0.tumblr.com/post/115176030 ... -new-light

VERY Tough Year To Make Some Money. Don't Take Much To Lead The Pack.... But Who Starts The Year Saying,"I Sure Hope I Break Even, That'd Be Really Nice..."

Ohh Yeah......
At this time of year, the 401 mutual funds pay a capital gains and dividend for the year for tax purposes. This looks like a big drop in the NAV for the funds on the order of five or ten percent. The loss is regained in a day or two when the share count goes up. I usually call this out but I forgot. Merry Christmas All!!!!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/na ... ue-marble/


http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011 ... ty/100209/

http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/ne ... name-drugs
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/ ... else_.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/qu ... evitation/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ing-binge/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-2 ... lewis.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/magaz ... K1rDdRWbIw

What Happened To My Country?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/wh ... y-country/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ja ... chernobyl/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 1060 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1058 )
Season's Greetings!!!! Started Shopping yet? Me Neither.... 

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
-- Aldous Huxley

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Dan o' Steel.... About that origin.....
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... 10102|6720


Hard work and not much to show for it....Better than the Balanced Pooled, way better than long stocks for the year, not nearly as good as bonds... long term performance is smokin'.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/su ... -12162011/
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... neer-Video
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2011/12/pee ... k-box.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/todays_pa ... G&pg=6
http://www.theonion.com/articles/2011s- ... 1/?slide=1

Tuesday Eve....


I've been long since mid October. it's cost me some money along the way. It was never a bet on the economy or stocks or a brighter future. It was a bet on the self interest of Wall Street where the toughest trading of a lifetime has hammered a lot of managers flat. There are two weeks left to make the year and keep jobs and bonuses.

Trust in a man's instincts to take care of his own self interests, rather than in his better side. He probably doesn't have one.

It's a way's back to my high of the year, much less past that.... We'll see....

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 851 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1096 )
Saw Bonamassa Last Night.The Wife And I Were As Impressed W/ The Drummer As Joe. Mostly Elderly Crowd; Almost As Old As I Am... A Few Were Convinced That The Program Was Their's, Coulda Been Worse... 

"No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."
-- Ken Keyes, Jr.

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46UFXQVS ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxqYoZi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0APsJ9U ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHGEX8Aa ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opgUUbt- ... re=related
A lotta fun...

Ya Win Some, Ya Lose Sum. If I Can Hold near A 4% Return For The Year, I'll Declare It A Win. I'll Be Ahead Of All But Two Of The 401 Fund Choices With Less Risk Since I Was Outa Stocks A Good Part Of The Year...

Tick, tick, tick

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ec ... or-market/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-0 ... louts.html

Holy Shit!!!!!

http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... n_scandal/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ba ... n-dollars/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/th ... -ayn-rand/

Tues Eve...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ph/249878/
http://peterlbrandt.com/mf-global-for-d ... -congress/
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... z1gMRRM1ah

Starting to lean really hard toward going heavily to bonds...

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 894 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1159 )
The Markets Disappointed Those Waiting for Year End Melt Up Into Giving Up... Then It Blind Sided Those Who Gave Up..... DAMN!!!!!!!! 

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

- Isaac Asimov

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

One of the smokin'est shows I ever saw was Jimmy Witherspoon with the Hollywood Fats Band at the Boardinghouse... It was pre 'spoon's cancer and before Fat's went the way of way to many great musicians. Here's a glimpse....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzHZqEsz ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Be0goMg ... ubgjKvfyvA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9H3my1T ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5GX9f8J ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST2-28u3 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbhhz6KR ... re=related

I've got ragged old tapes of The Hollywood Fats Band and the James Cotton Band at the Monterey Jazz Festival's Saturday Afternoon Blues show that is one of the top blues shows of my life...

As per last week, Sunday night I'd determined to gradually find my way to the sidelines on any kind of bounce, or bail all at once at signs of going off a cliff. Sunday night news of Central Banks actions to prevent a European bank melt down put me into neutral about 2/3rd long. Not half shabby.

I'm not all the way well, but I'm feeling better..... Having a buy out up 30% in a position in my trading account helped too...

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... dividuals/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ut-europe/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ry ... ft-behind/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ro ... mp-change/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... g-average/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ri ... citi-deal/
http://247wallst.com/2011/12/04/detroit ... aken-over/

Monday Eve...
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... -obstacles
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45558165/ns ... t1_xbIk67s

Thurs Eve...

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... ert-crisis

Stay tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 1097 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1078 )
Boy, I Sure Screwed That One Up....But ...That Was Last Night. From Zero To Hero And From Chump To Champ In 8 Hours... 

"The market is not a sofa, it is not a place to get comfortable."
Jim Cramer

Chartz And Table Zup.... @ www.joefacer.com

Makes Me Feel Better...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs-HwuZw ... re=related

It's been a bad coupla weeks and I've lost concentration and let some things slide due to personal issues. I had some very bad news about one of my favorite persons in my life. And it's cost me concentration and focus on the matters at hand. It couldn't a' happened at a worse time either. My thesis for the year's end looks like it was wrong and I was set up long stocks when the markets cratered on the Euro news. I shoulda cut back or bailed a lot sooner but, knowing that there was gonna be bad news before there was good news, I stayed too long too long based on hope, a poor strategy. Damn.

My losses inna market pretty much pales in comparison to the losses in my personal life. That said, I've got responsibilities to me and my family for the future as well as for what will soon be in the past.....so....

It's Not A Sin To Be Wrong, But It Is A Sin To Stay Wrong.

So How Bad Is It?

I can fix this. In absolute terms I lost a chunk o' money in two weeks. Practically speaking, Not So Much. Year to date, the Balanced Pooled Fund is down a little over 1%, I'm down a little under 2% from up 4%, the best stock fund is down 4%, the worst stock fund is down 15%, and the Stable Value Fund is up 2% and the best bond fund is up 5%. My losses are not even a hiccup on the long term chart and I can fix this.

I'm going to cash/bonds and derisking within the restrictions of the 401 and in a market where everyone is leaning the same way and that may provide me an opportunity to undo some damage... Getting less long is the order of the day and the week, and I've never lost money since I began to actively manage my 401 and I'm not going to be stoopid about trying to keep the streak alive. I made money in 2008, but things looked so shitty then, so that going to cash was a no brainer; Hell, no brainers are my specialty. This year was actually a tougher call. Too choppy. But a nine percent annual return '04 to date, down a whole point in 2 weeks still ain't half shabby and I can live w/ that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... ncome.html

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... last-week/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ws ... s-deepens/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/25/opini ... .html?_r=1
http://www.businessweek.com/printer/mag ... 02011.html
http://the-diplomat.com/2011/11/25/the- ... ded-age/2/

Late Sunday Eve:
There is a hot "Italy (Europe) has Been Saved (Again)" rumor on the wires; Futures are raging higher. This may be a chance to get out higher and sooner than I had hoped.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/11/27 ... -dont-die/

I understand where he is coming from....

Monday Eve...

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ro-or-dog/
Now all I gotta do is to do the smart thing... whatever that is....

We finally got a turn upward in the market, I'm still thinking of getting less long and doing it during a bounce is a better way to go. I gotta figure this out.

Thurs Eve.
Still long, made a dollar, gave a nickel back... Balancing the possibility of a year end run up against the hopelessness of the confederated states of Yerup, the on going delevering of the population vs the wringing out of the debt excesses.

Tomorrows job #s will tell a tale. I should take the money and run.....

Soon... maybe.

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 924 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1073 )
Not Yet Thanksgiving, Yet Holiday Season Heard Just Around The Corner.....Is It Me That's Wrong And Not The Picture? 

"Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask, 'Where have I gone wrong?' Then a voice says to me, 'This is going to take more than one night.'"
-- Charles M. Schulz

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

If You're Really Good, Different Gears For Different Jobs Come Naturally...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvklBbYg ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp9V3D3u ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPJgtQwt ... re=related
Saw The Sgt P @ Winterland Back Inna Day. Blew My Mind....

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archive ... tion=false
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qic4pjTE ... re=related
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45277296/ns ... sBDFHKwXbg

So I'm still carrying way too much stocks in the face of some truly nasty sentiment, nasty potentials, and it's all based on the faith that the market is not the economy and if rich guys need it to be up, it will go up. Fear vs calculation and faith the the game is to some degree rigged. I may be right, I may be wrong, and I may change my mind. Stay Tooned....

Holding my own for the year vs any and all funds. I can be satisfied with that. Especially in this market...

Ahl Be Bach.......

[ view entry ] ( 930 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1074 )
Headline Risk And 95% Correlation Of Stocks With The Headlines; An UnEnding Source Of Amazement And Delight..... Turn Out Delight.... 

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year olds life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves Orcs.”
-- John Rogers

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Before and After; ya gotta shelf life; know it or not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfSl1KHi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weYgSn6b ... re=related

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/th ... ity-circa/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/mf ... -chutzpah/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/mf ... %94part-2/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 84948.html
http://alephblog.com/2011/11/05/bubbles ... ll-almost/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/su ... -11042011/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... cohan.html


Still about 60% stocks into the year end in the face of whipsaws, daily manic flailing about and darkness and despair in the news. It's working so far.......

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 938 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1117 )
Every Pitcher Tells A Story, Doughnut.......  

Lindsey Campbell; What do you do to fix the economy?
Barry Ritholtz; I don’t know that the economy needs fixing. What do you do to fix night? You wait and it becomes day.

Charts And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

I'd heard that the "hid behind the amplifiers" event occurred at The 'mo East when The Jeff Beck Group was 2nd act prior to the headliners, The 'Dead. The opening act had been boo'd off the stage in minutes. Beck figured that they had one shot and only one shot so they laid it all on the line by opening with their closer, "I Ain't Superstitious.... kinda knocked 'em Dead....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIkwAoWq ... re=related

I started to go long onna 10th and I was up to 40% in stocks from zero by the middle of this week. I miskeyed an entry a coupla days ago and I'm way too long stocks now, but that hasn't hurt me....yet. There are cross currents under the surface of the market and I'm big time aware of the conflicts. I'm gonna change some stuff in the 401 and set up some contingencies next week, TBD.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/mr ... ful-blues/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/as ... ng-crisis/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/mc ... p-dat-aet/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... stors.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-o ... 2011-10-28

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/10/th ... _of_i.html

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/10/27/Fi ... y-Bankers/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opini ... odayspaper
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/bl ... g-20111025


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/bo ... 1981-2011/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... endum.html
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... 10/English


Explains A LOT....
http://www.moneyweb.com/mw/view/mw/en/p ... pid=287226

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... eaven.aspx
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... ed-selves/
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/01/world ... index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/opini ... .html?_r=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/ ... 2128040CF6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ia ... o-incomes/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... onomy.html

I'm doing better than all but two of the funds out of the ten and I'm in good shape if stocks react well to the end of the year/holidays.
or, I'll have to adjust if that allocation loses me money. Stay Tooned....

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... treet.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ar ... ing-point/

Stay Tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 954 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1094 )
You Can Lead A Horse To Water, But Unless You Can Teach Him To Swim On His Back, Ya Ain't Showed Me Nothin...... 

“I’ll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one.”
-- Seen At Occupy Wall Street Rally

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com ...

Every Young Man Has Something He Hopes Never Sees The Light Of Day...Enjoy.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/clover/vi ... 81731.html
The two dancin' fools went on to be moderately successful as did one of the guitarists ... Can you figure out where?

I put some money to work this week... maybe some more goin' out on Monday. Details to follow....

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/is ... ust-noise/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Europe desperately wants the markets to go up. Wall Street NEEDS the markets to go up. The government sure wants the markets to go up. Despite EVERYTHING, the markets look like they want to go up. I sense a theme.... http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... -q4-rally/

I'm edging back in for the year... http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... d-all-out/

JFC!!!!!! http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 0812.story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... -says.html

I started to put money to work in stocks on the 10th. I had some in, I coulda had more. But I made a dollar.... I'm thinkin' about what's next.........

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 886 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1128 )
Busy Weekend. I'll post as time permits... 

Chartz and table zup @ www.joefacer.com

I got some money back in stocks. ma y keep it there, may not. .


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... -says.html
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... -tatooine/

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 749 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1089 )
The Tea Party Last Year And The Occupy Wall Street Movement This Year. Shades Of The Sixties And Seventies!!. Maybe A Third Or Fourth Party? Oh Boy! This Generation's Choice Between Perot/Iaccoca And Nader!! Louis Louis..... Me Gotta Go Now ... 

Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

The original Procul Harum LP was in mono and they waited a year to release the album after the single charted. You wouldn't have believed how the record industry was run in the 60's. We listened to Jimi for 6 months on English imports bootlegged in while they worked out whether or not getting the album in the US was an idea or not. Anyway, here's one of the Haight Ashbury's stoner anthems from Procol Harum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjBKu7Wq ... re=related

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... mands.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjBKu7Wq ... re=related
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... parts.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... parts.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... -says.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/pa ... nstration/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/to ... moneyball/
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... rticle%3D1

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... alter.html
http://www.the-american-interest.com/ar ... piece=1049

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ory_1.html
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10 ... overy.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content ... /OWS-M.jpg

Fuckin' "A" Tweetie Bird!
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ou-to-die/
Sign Me UP! Kick Ass Comments When You Scroll Deeper...

http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/sp ... -wildfire/

I Don't Like Where We Are, I Don't like The News, I Do Like Bonds And Cash.
We Are Teetering...
If We Make It many Will Never Know How Close We Came. I'd Just As Soon We Make It. I'm On The Side Lines Until We Get Clarity....

kinda sad... But, its what makes Obama re electable

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... ows-wants/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/wh ... out-dexia/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/hu ... t-roundup/


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... t-traders/
http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/

The Chart Don't Look Good... We're still stick inna range, we're just barely 3/4s of the way through the range onna upside, not much upside left, lotsa resistance above, everybody HATES the volatility and a lot of investors have given up. We're prolly going into a recession (40% to 100% plus/minus prob so far)... Europe is gonna implode, China is slowing down, the entire US government is FUBAR, etc...

What the hell, I edged a little money outa bonds and inta stocks...

End of the year coming up... money managers gotta inflate the market if they're gonna be paid and the market ain't the economy. Sooner or later we will go up again, shame not to have a mindset that accepts change and reality when one acts on the other....

I'm started in if we the the usual year end melt up and I'm not so far in that I can't get out with only a little damage.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... egativity/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ml?hpid=z3

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/ ... 1L20111010
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... -exposure/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 966 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1051 )
Forty Years Ago, I Didn't Understand Why All The Old Timers Ever Talked About Was Retiring. It Gets Clearer Every Year.... 

Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Marshall Tucker Was A Rock Band Before They Were Country. I Saw 'em Open For The Allman Bros New Years Eve Show Inna 70's. SMOKIN'....

It's Been A Rotten Week Inna Market... But There Is An Answer To The Social Security Problem.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/so ... e-younger/

I Have half A Dozen Go to Guys...Lakshuman Is One...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/le ... recession/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/su ... s-9-30-11/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ucktember/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/

It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.

And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... cal-union/

Lemme ruin your day...
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/feat ... wis-201111
http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/tran ... -blame-fed
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0 ... ery-wrong/

More Lakshman Achuthan
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/

A Most Thoroughly Unpleasant Day.



The Upside Can Be Ferocious ....So Can The Downside...
The Goal Is Capture One And Dodge The Other.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... ar-market/
http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2011/09/c ... story.html


Stay Tooned.... And see ya at the hall before the meeting.

[ view entry ] ( 1143 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1086 )
I Guess I Do Kinda Look Like Jerry Garcia Used To Look.... I Got There By a Different Route... 

“The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”
-- Damon Runyon

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/link-wray ... 10921video
Coupla Guitarists Always Worth Seein'... RockaWilliam Link And John Cippolina w/his Fender/Horn Stack...

http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... tTrackID=5
And Link Doin' His Own Thang....

HANG ON!!!!!!!

What Part Of "Self Managed" Do People Not Understand?

"Self Managed" and "Risk Management" Is Like "Carbo-Loading"... Ya
Gotta Pay Attention To The Words....


I See A Lotta Downside Risk. And Not Much Upside Risk. We're Inna Trading Range. And I'm In Cash And Bonds...



I got nervous after I did some reading. I'm still outa stocks. But now I'm 80/20 US Gov paper vs corporate/state/muni...

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 1078 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1111 )
Blues An' New Orleans Piano Onna Turntable..... 

If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.
-- Catherine Aird

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

I got this last week from Louisiana Music Factory. SMOKIN'!!!!
http://www.amazon.com/Piano-Players-Rar ... amp;sr=1-2

Something With 'fess's music...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/u- ... -thin-ice/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/th ... ies-ipods/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... n-anymore/

Care to juggle nitro glycerine?
http://www.ted.com/talks/misha_glenny_h ... ideo%29%29

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/ ... idiot.html
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... e-fed.html

Last week's strength had far more to do with market dynamics than it did with the news flow.
-- Rev Shark

http://thecrosspollinator.wordpress.com ... efinition/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-1 ... -home.html

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/09/ob ... frank.html

Monday Eve...

I don't like the news flow, I don't like the breadth, I don't like the macro, I don't like the unfinished business, I don't like the disconnect between Main St and Wall St. I like that bailing out in may was right, if a little early...

But if we get to 1230 and confirm a breakout, I'll have to figure what I don't like don't matter.....

But regardless of whether or not I end up liking it if and when it happens, I don't like it today.

http://blogmaverick.com/2011/09/19/the- ... -can-do-2/

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/05/18 ... not-to-do/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/20/opini ... .html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/20/busin ... wanted=all


http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/st ... onomy-fail
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... -bernanke/
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/p ... 090711.pdf


Rev Shark and a lotta other guys are of the opinion that if we hit the 1120 to 1105 level hard, it won't hold. The next level of support is a long way down and the drop could be breathtaking... Lotta risk right here... And I don't see the reward.

When I look at returns YTD

I feel better and better to be outa stocks. I will buy some hand over fist at some point... prolly from sellers who wished they had sold them earlier and for more money.... At the right price, almost everything makes sense for a trade. But for a 401, I wanna buy stuff when the charts go from lower left to upper right.

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... ction.html

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... t-dummies/


Yup, bear flag in a bear market. Same old nasty downdraft in once again in progress. There is a bottom and the bottom somewhere below.

Hang on.

Closer to buying back in than I was... startin' to begin to think about it....

Rough day. prolly not the last....

I'll be back....

[ view entry ] ( 822 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1051 )
Ya Get One Life. Enjoy It While Ya Got It... Rest In Sobriety And Decorum When Yer Dead. WFO Until You See God, Count Ta Two....And THEN Hit The Brakes. 

"The primary objective of leadership is to help those who are doing poorly to do well and to help those who are doing well to do even better."
-- Jim Rohn

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Tanqueray Man....
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... tTrackID=1
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... tTrackID=4
Townsend was right... when he died, it took a bass player and three or four horns and a keyboard to replace him.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... consumers/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... -jobs.html

Bonds and cash inna 401a. Protecting what I got. There are old riders and bold riders. But there ain't no old bold riders. At least not without luck and brains and the experience to know the difference. I'm an old bold rider, and I'm parked under the overpass, waiting out the weather.

In the discussion that followed, the city officials asked a few technical questions, and Arthur Nusbaum expressed concern over a shortage of certified welders who had passed the city's structural-welding test. That would not be a problem, the representatives from the Department of Buildings replied; one of the area's most trusted steel inspectors, Neil Moreton, would have the power to test and immediately certify any welder that Citicorp's repair project required. Nusbaum recalls, "Once they said that, I knew we were O.K., because there were steamfitter welders all over the place who could do a fantastic job."
Before the city officials left, they commended LeMessurier for his courage and candor, and expressed a desire to be kept informed as the repair work progressed. Given the urgency of the situation, that was all they could reasonably do. "It wasn't a case of 'We caught you, you skunk,'" Nusbaum says. "It started with a guy who stood up and said, 'I got a problem, I made the problem, let's fix the problem.' If you're gonna kill a guy like LeMessurier, why should anybody ever talk?"


I pay very serious attention to Rick Bookstaber. Read "A Demon of Our Own Design" To Understand Why.

http://rick.bookstaber.com/2011/08/work ... night.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/techn ... .html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/opini ... g-but.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... xes-growth

http://www.washingtonpost.com/the-magic ... print.html

http://joefahmy.com/2011/09/11/why-i-co ... o-sit-out/
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09 ... d-edition/

So far, So good....So What? STILL All Cash and Bonds and Still Feelin' Awright! About It ....

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09 ... work/all/1
http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-re ... 1314907779


We closed near 1190 onna S&P today. I bailed out 150 points higher about 4 months ago. Resistance is 10 and 70 points higher. Support is 70 and 90 points lower. If that support fails, like onna bad headline plunge, next stop down could be WAY down. And have no doubt; the market is inna headline driven bear market phase. We have to write off Greece. We have to worry about Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. But see, if I knew enough to worry about Belgium, then I'd really be worried about bad headlines. We're at two and a half bounces. Two and a half.... That rings a bell and it ain't a good one.

I'm in a wait and see mode. In cash and bonds....


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/at ... -tomorrow/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/we ... nform-you/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 1604 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1026 )
Things Could Be Worse.... Therein Lies The Problem..... 

[ view entry ] ( 1019 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1036 )
Henenah Henenah Henenah Hey, Hoy Hoy Hoy. Po jama People.... Frank Zappa  

[ view entry ] ( 967 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1077 )
There Is A Season, Turn, Turn, Turn.... The Quicker You Recognize That, The Sooner You Stop Plowing And Seeding Snow And Start Making Hay While The Sun Shines 

“Being wrong and losing money: that is part of the game. Being right and not making money: that is really annoying.”
-- John Hempton,

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Find the Guitarist....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcTOoOlr ... re=related

Ah Ain't Always Right,
But Ah Ain't Got Mahself Confused,
Wit A Deer Inna Headlights.
-- Buck Earl

This's What Situational Awareness, Prudence, And Common Sense Yields.

I Went To Cash And Bonds In Mid-May, Back In @ 25% Stocks Onna Bounce, Back Out Onna Weakness Of The Bounce, Back in Cash And Bonds Today...

Too Much Risk For An Insanely Aggressive Ex Roadracing Sport Bike Rider.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... more-69145
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... g-america/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/mi ... ing-point/

I Love What The Internet Brings......

I Really Needed That....


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ch ... ooms-both/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/smacked-b ... print.html
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... the-sheep/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ce-is-why/

Uh Oh...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08 ... hole-2010/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/sw ... -pickaxes/

Stay Tooned ...

[ view entry ] ( 898 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1032 )
I Know There's A Lot Of People Out There Who Are Thinking, "Please Dear God, Just Let Me Break Even On My Investments. I've Worked Really Hard And I Could Really Use The Money." Seems Kinda Sad..... 

"The truth will set you free, but first it will make you miserable."
--James A. Garfield

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Twelve Year Old Joe Bonamassa regularly opened for BB King and held his own with everybody. Like Robben Ford...

Then He Worked With Tom Dowd...You Couldn't Find A Better Mentor....It Turned Out ALL Right.....

He Tours And Plays About 200 Days A Year. It Shows...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoG5zSj4 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHGEX8Aa ... re=related

Speaking of A Churnin' Urn Of Burning Funk....

Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ra ... -congress/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/im ... about-you/

You Have Bigger Problems Than You Think.....

"Global Economic Downturn: A Crisis of Political Economy is republished with permission of STRATFOR."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110808 ... al-economy

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... e-endgame/

Very Interesting.....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/cu ... or-idiots/
http://abnormalreturns.com/swensen-on-t ... -industry/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mr-market/
http://abnormalreturns.com/swensen-on-t ... -industry/
http://pragcap.com/putting-the-correcti ... erspective

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08 ... quivalent/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... ss_economy
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... rom=sec431
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... print.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/qo ... ate-lobby/
http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2011 ... lshit.html

OUCH!!!!! MY BRAIN....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-1 ... -weil.html


http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.bl ... tting.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/com ... 3976.story
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peter ... he-bottom/


Obama's in over his head. Perry's pretty clueless too. But I do love what the internet brings us every day....

http://www.scribd.com/doc/61684192/Rick ... Transcript


http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... to-show-up

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 897 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1137 )
It Looks Like The Next 5 Years Are Going To Be The "Interesting Times" Of The Old Chinese/Jewish/American Saying..... Google It....  

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

J Tull started out as a blues band and quickly evolved into Ian Anderson's vision of an rock ensemble. I've always liked Tull, but the early version with so much raw talent and different directions was never equaled.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 66284.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 91320.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 83290.html
http://www.performing-musician.com/pm/s ... bunker.htm

Bonds... Check out my website.... Asset allocation will save yer ass at times like this....

I've spent some time corresponding with Dan Fitzpatrick and this is an excellent example of his work. I'm not a regular follower of his service but he's got a lot worth listening to...

So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... than-ever/

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... e-curtain/

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom

Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.

I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... -a-sudden/

Monday Eve

I Have This List...

...it's of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.

DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....

There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/on ... f-america/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ma ... r-are-you/


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mes-first/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... sh-legacy/



We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...

I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 34052.html


Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.

But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....

The Original; Howard Hangs It Out.

http://www.google.com/search?q=i'm ... en___US371

Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ra ... -congress/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/im ... about-you/

Stay Tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 742 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1072 )
Got My Mojo Workin'... Got My Mojo Workin'...... Jes' Doan' Work On You. McKinley Morganfield 

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
-- Woody Allen

Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/muddy-wat ... 00374.html

I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....

Bonds and cash....

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201107 ... ly-germany
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/an ... all-speed/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... paign=Feed




Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 829 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1131 )
MOTOGP!!!!!! GAWD!!!!!! 

Despite all of the talk about Democratization of investing, Wall Street primarily serves only the very wealthiest Americans. And that is a shame.
-- Barry Ritholtz

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j9iNV_e ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqa6tMwv ... re=related

And MOTOGP!!!!!!

Kickin' Ass in my trading account. I can go where the action is. And it is up high and in the corners. Cash and bonds inna 401a. The markets are squirrely, the economy is crashing after too long on stiimulus, and none on the horizon, and you make money when the risk/reward works for you. That ain't everyplace and all the time.

Waiting for clarity....

Wed Eve....

Clarity.... Seems clear to me....

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 792 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1070 )
I Listened To An Ex Senator Alan Simpson Interview On The Bi Partisan Deficit Report....Horrifying...I Think It Is Fixable. I'm Not Sure It Will Be.... 

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
— Michael Crichton

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.

It Starts Like This;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLB900at ... r_embedded
And Pretty Soon It Gets To This;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn09Xn9J ... re=related

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/cl ... n-economy/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/opini ... .html?_r=1

http://mobile.theonion.com/articles/con ... obile=true

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 878 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.6 / 1453 )
Politics? Control Alternate Delete. Works For Me. Some Times It's The Right Thing To Do... 

I am not a Democrat, because I have no idea what their economic policies are; And I am not a Republican, because I know precisely what their economic policies are.
-- Barry Ritholtz

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

We're All Showin' The Mileage.... But There's Young Guys Inna Wings.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvNUTqDJ ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vZ6b6j ... re=related


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 24592.html

Moving over to some funds to bonds. The stock market has been big time decoupled from main street for a coupla years. Profits and prices have been up but I'm feelin' that the risk is to the down side, secularly, seasonally and cyclically. my aggressiveness is sated by what I'm doin' in my trading account and IRA's. I'm too old not to have come to appreciate discretion as the better part of valor when I suspect I may end up pissing into the wind. Let things clarify.....


Bonds and cash....'Nuff Said.

The S&P closed below the 50 Day MA. Now let's see if it is confirmed....

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/us ... hijackers/

Thurs Eve...

This could get bad. Not necessarily, .... but the possibility exists.

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 876 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1077 )
Death Is Nature's Way Of Telling You To Slow Down. Kinda The Ultimate Excuse. Until Then, No Excuses.... 

"In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is."
-- Yogi Berra

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Taj and Keef do my two favorite versions of Leaving Trunk. Here's both of them. if only video had been around when Keef's band did Born To Die.... What do Ian Cruikshank and Spit James have in common?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SHlnUr ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIzSy8Ln ... re=related

An' a little Taj Mahal channelin' Howlin' Wolf.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyP07ybz ... re=related

An a little Keef Hartley and Spit James....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6SQ1A0k ... re=related

OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!!! Smokin' week inna market. And I was All Cash. It stings, but it still may have been the responsible thing to do. Stay tooned and I'll explain why.....

I got out at 1 because the economy sucked, the Fed was through stuffing the bank vaults with cash, ya can't buy houses if yer unemployed, the banks make safer money buying treasuries than loaning money for interest, Greeks were getting their Visa card limits raised so as to borrow to make the monthly, China inflation and GDP was running into a slowing world economy, and the first glimpse of the next recession is occurring with 9% to 17% unemployment today ,depending on what yer smokin'.

It looked as expected at 2 & 3 & 4.

At 5, with everyone leaning the same way after 4 down weeks, the paint the tape game started early because of the end the quarter. Once the buyers lit up the tape, the scramble to get outa shorts and inta longs got frantic. the only red that week was end of the days locking in profits and after lunch onna 30th locking in profits.

So.... Tuesday. A lotta guys show up having missed the run up and waiting on earnings inna week or two. Do they (I) buy at the highs? Or do they say, "Aw RIGHT!!! A chance to unload at the prices I missed last month ...SELL EVERYTHING!! Is the stock market saying "Everything is better, we washed out the timid and it's UP, UP, AN' AWAY. Or is it saying " We brutalized the cautious, now let's break the foolhardy.

See, I just don't see how much has changed inna last month. Greece is patched over, but the German public is less and less sure about floatin' the rest of the EZ. The economy? Wall Street vs Main St? A recession on the horizon? QE3? Do i see the way home?

Dunno. But discipline trumps conviction. Price is truth and in my IRAs and trading account, I'm long and undiversified and even margined in the trading account. I can do what I wanna, when I wanna, All in long to all out in the click of an iphone. Last week was good But that is not the way it is with my 401a. There are rules and restrictions on what, when, and how often. I gotta move deliberately, like moving a building down the street, not a car.

This is the other side of a Bull Market, when I'll go 100% long the most aggressive funds and ride undiversified through the dips and hiccups. The down days or weeks 'll be nothing another few days or weeks of up won't fix.

This is a Secular Bear Market where the news is bad, sell offs are relentless and the updrafts are absolutely vicious. I gotta deal with missing the ups as the price of missing the downs. I'm in cash now and I expect to be in cash until I see a reason not to be...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43633233/ns ... _business/

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... other.html

The blast back to recent highs left a lot of investors on the outside lookin' in. That is a ready made cabal of dip buyers. The market can work off the overbought condition by going down and letting the left out in all at once at a lower price, or it can chop around and let the left out in a few at a time, correcting in time instead of price.

Or it can run head on into a a horrible jobs report or a Italy/Spain EU conflagration and undo the last week's launch upward all a once and continue down through the 200 day moving average.

Standing by in cash. I missed 80 points in 5 days, I ain't gonna chase it if I don't have any idea where it is going.... The market is going to be open tomorrow, next week, next month and next year too. I'm going to wait to commit until I have some clarity...

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11174104 ... ivity.html

Stay tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 859 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1119 )
Weather Sure Is Strange.... Winter To Summer In Two Days.  

"If things go wrong, don't go with them."
--Roger Babson

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

So much Talent, So much of a Tragedy...Jaco, one from the darker late days,two from when it was all about his present and the bright future, and one of my favorite tribute songs, called "Jaco". Check out "Mr Fats" on the Brubeck "Tritonis" LP to hear how much Jaco influenced contemporary bassists and those to follow....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwhkPSEX ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqashW66 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I63bOi47 ... re=related

Lotta Watchin' Not Much Participation.

Stay The Course......As Long As It Is Working.
Turn Onna Dime.........When It Is The Right Thing To Do.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/mo ... tion-rate/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... rowth.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... looms.html

http://thestar.blogs.com/davidolive/201 ... risis.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/mo ... d-madness/

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 904 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1034 )
We're Not As Far Down As We Were In March, But It Feels A Lot Worse.... Kinda Like 84 Degrees F at 7:30 AM Feels Different Than 84 Degrees F At 3:30 PM. Feels Like Something Serious Is Onna Way..... 

People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.
-- Jean Monnet

Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com

Back Inna Day, KSAN was tryin' to stay afloat post Hippie Apocalypse and had tapped the Bay Area music community for an all live music weekend. One of the Fillmore Auditorium regular bands canceled out and Ronnie Montrose, who was putting a band together at the time, filled in on a coupla hours notice. He put on what would be his Montrose Stadium Rock program of the future in a studio using practice amps and borrowed instruments. This was in the pre-box-of-effects, Marshall-in-your-pocket-era. Sounded kinda like this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk52nGxF ... re=related

Over the weekend, decisions will be made that will determine whether the world will relive the 2007-08 crash. The odds are not that bad short term. They are horrible long term and the downside outcome is nasty..... Stay tooned.

http://www.comstockfunds.com/%28X%281%2 ... eSupport=1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-1 ... -veto.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/we ... -solution/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/su ... -06-17-11/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43439252/ns ... _business/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... hnson.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-1 ... lment.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43456544/ns ... _business/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43443426/ns ... ws-europe/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... -debt.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/ap ... he-news-2/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... et-it.html

You start with everybody in cash or short. Then someone goes, "Hey, Waidaminute!! Who's left to sell and/or go to cash? What if the only thing left to do is buy?" With everybody leaning the same way, it doesn't take much to ignite a stampede the other way. It looks like a ferocious short covering and chasing runaway stocks rally.

The fundamentals suck. If the market confirms the launch, I will figure out what to do then. Right now, it feels too much like a bear trap....

Still all cash....

Stay Tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 827 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1104 )
After The Banks In Ireland And Finland Blew Themselves Up Through Too much Leverage And Speculation, The Governments Transferred The Losses To The Citizens. Then The Citizens Voted Themselves A New Government. Stay Tooned....  

[ view entry ] ( 1092 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1121 )
tick, tick, tick... 

"When the plane is going down and the oxygen masks have dropped and parts of the plane are peeling off as you plummet toward the earth, that’s not the time to pull out the little card in the seat in front of you and say, ‘Gee, where are the emergency exits?' Everybody should have an emergency plan. The time to make these decisions is not when people are running around with their hair on fire."
--Barry Ritholtz

Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com ... Check It out ....

I'm Still Shakin' My Head An' I've Owned The DVD For Years...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNuXO60G ... re=related

It's June An' I'm still 99-44/100's stock free inna 401a. The Ivory Soap riff is kinda my emergency plan...Know What I Mean, Vern? (How soon until NOBODY can relate to a '50s marketing slogan or a Jim Varney reference?)

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... point.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/oh ... end-again/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/su ... s-6-03-11/
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... n-dream-i/
http://www.gq.com/news-politics/big-iss ... table=true
http://money.msn.com/investing/the-big- ... jubak.aspx
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 26472.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-0 ... -view.html


It's Not That We're Down 5%, We're Up A Whole Bunch Over The Last Two Years.
It's That Sentiment Has Changed, The Season Is Against Us, And The Leaders And Tells Are Undercutting Our Confidence.

Thurs Eve... Still 99-44/100s % stock free inna 401a. Keep da bounce in perspective......

Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 1050 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 739 )

<< <Back | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Next> >>