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We're Not As Far Down As We Were In March, But It Feels A Lot Worse.... Kinda Like 84 Degrees F at 7:30 AM Feels Different Than 84 Degrees F At 3:30 PM. Feels Like Something Serious Is Onna Way.....
Friday, June 17, 2011, 11:33 PM
People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.
-- Jean Monnet
You start with everybody in cash or short. Then someone goes, "Hey, Waidaminute!! Who's left to sell and/or go to cash? What if the only thing left to do is buy?" With everybody leaning the same way, it doesn't take much to ignite a stampede the other way. It looks like a ferocious short covering and chasing runaway stocks rally.
The fundamentals suck. If the market confirms the launch, I will figure out what to do then. Right now, it feels too much like a bear trap....
Still all cash....
Stay Tooned.....
   ( 2.9 / 1173 )
Ya Don't Slow Down, Ya Never Grow Old. ----- Tom Petty . . . . I'll Let Ya Know How It Works Out....
Saturday, May 21, 2011, 02:25 AM
"If you keep thinking about what you want to do or what you hope will happen, you don't do it, and it won't happen."
-- Joe DiMaggio
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ha ... h-fer-two/
We got a lower high and a lower low and a close under the 50 day MA. And I got to 99+% Met Life Stable Value Fund... Now I wait....
What it all means...
Going from 95 % stock to all cash was a good idea, well timed.
This is an example of having all your boats in the water when the wind and the currents are working for you (9/10 to 5/11) and seeking shelter when conditions get sketchy (last coupla weeks).
I can't tell the future, I'm not privy to the conversations at the highest levels of business and government, I don't have inside information, and I still have title to my soul.
I do, however possess a certain degree of perceptivity and ratiocination such that I can see what is in front of me and figure out what I'm looking at. That's all ya really need...
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011 ... 071/#img07
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/al ... 0-day-m-a/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/ne ... more-66061
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/201 ... at-the-sp/
Tuesday Eve...
A "V" Shaped bounce looks less likely. I'm positioned for some serious down side. I may not get it. This might just be a brief pause while some temporary issues or seasonality are worked out. Or it could be the start of a significant down draft ending 10% to 25% down with a huge wash out amid chaos and despair...
Either way, I'll buy when I like what I see.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05 ... defaulted/
As High Frequency Economics says today: “Underlying problems of over-borrowed nations are not fixed by lending them more money.”
Stay Tooned...
What Happens To The Party (The Markets) When The Fed Takes Away The Punch Bowl (Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] )?
Saturday, May 14, 2011, 01:51 PM
Just remember one thing: there are no good stocks. They all suck. Even those that are making you money are going to turn on you sooner or later. The only stock you should say anything good about is the one you no longer own that made you money.
--Reverend Shark
What Happens When The Fed Takes Away Free Money (ZIRP)? It Really Ain't That Hard To Figure Out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtsClj04 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5IS45jT ... re=related
Pretty radical change in posture over the last month:
I'm down from 90% stocks just weeks ago to 33% this weekend, to anywhere from 20% to 0% anytime this week depending on how urgent I feel the need to get ultra defensive is....
It's a risk/reward thing, see? I been way long for a while, since 9/10. I made some serious coin last year. But there's limits. Making money was easy between late '04 and late 2008. I went 100% stocks, checked everything every Saturday morning and every so often trimmed my allocation toward the hot fundz. I was onna sidelines in cash during the 08/09 WHOOSH down. I read enough to make me certain that it was all risk and no reward so I cashed outa stocks into the GIC. I made money by not losing money. I mean I actually made money in 08. Coupla hundred simoleans beats a gaping smokin' pit inna 401a. I was late rejoining the party in the spring of 09. I let a lot of gains go bye bye because caution had served me so well previously. I didn't really understand the new religion of free money from the FED until 9/10. But there ain't no true believer like a recent convert so I got wit it. All stocks alla time.
That was then an' this is now. I'm gonna play onna other side of the street for a while. Yeah, I'm really aggressive when it comes to reachin' out for gains. It's what I do. But I balance that by being really aggressive protecting gains. I risk serious losses by being all the way long when I think the markets are goin' up. If the market turns against me, I can get roughed up onna way out. The rapid trading restrictions means there is a price to bailing out inna hurry. Ya gotta be smart aggressive; listen for the sirens and move closer to the door.
The other side of that is that caution and getting out early can leave you looking in the windows at the party. Coupla three four days of upward whoosh watched through the windows can sting hard enough to make yer eyes water. But, Oh Well! you never go broke realizing gains and booking profits. And a few dollars left onna table can be thought of as insurance premiums or the cost of admission. I can live with that. What's made me cautious over the last six weeks is starting to wear on me. Time for some fresh air and a rest. Nothing clears the head and resets the game like the view from the sidelines.
There is nothing that will benefit your portfolio more than avoiding losses when the market is acting poorly. If you can keep from incurring losses in your portfolio as the market falls, you avoid the very unproductive task of recouping losses once the market is more favorable.
James “Reverend Shark” DePorre
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/lo ... economics/
http://alephblog.com/ Check out "The Impossible Dream Part 2"
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 23_pf.html
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/20 ... y_gen.html
Damn!! Meant to lighten up onna stocks today. Forgot to enter the orders. Got 'em entered for tomorrow.
I'm a trend and momentum investor. I see damn little momentum and the trend looks to be rolling over. If I can pick up a majority of the up and miss out on summa da down, I figure that's pretty copacetic. Bull markets are a much easier environment to invest in and I'd rather just go long and hang on. But that's a recipe for disaster during certain times.... like this one.. .
WED EVE
Up day inna market and I'm pretty much a day or two from an all cash position (Met Life Stable Value). I'll write more as to how and why this weekend. For now, I'm banking gains from the first four months of the year, stepping back from risks I identify in the market technicals, acknowledging concerns identified by what I consider to be reliable and informed sources, and taking a breather. Should we get yet another "V" shaped bounce, I'm in a position to go long as fast as I wanna without triggering rapid trading restrictions penalties... If we go down big time, an all cash is a good thing indeed...
A coupla moves still to go, done by next Monday, and then I wait. A day, A week, A month, Or three.
Stay Tooned....
Another Day, Another Drachma... Or Simolean. Whatever....
Saturday, May 7, 2011, 04:13 PM
"Money isn't the most important thing in life, but it's reasonably close to oxygen on the "gotta have it" scale."
-- Zig Ziglar
One Gawdamn Treasure After Another.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE0xG7OD ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CxVSM6F ... re=related
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/be ... t-be-nice/
We got higher highs and higher lows. We got a failed support line and a working support line. We got a dead cat bounce on lower volume after four days down from a multi year high. Beneath the indexes we have a WHOOSH down in commodities. We have leading stocks and sectors looking queasy. We got extended stocks without support after serious run ups. We have hot money bailing out of the trade dejour. We have risk vs reward, fear vs greed, and risk management vs asset allocation.
I've pulled back some serious coin. I'm more concerned about the return OF capital than the return ON capital.
If we launch higher Monday and don't look back, I've still got money inna game. just not as much as I like. I can fix that.
If Friday was short covering and bargain hunters seeing bargains compared to a week ago, we might continue/resume falling and this might be the non "V" shaped bounce/correction I've kinda been expecting. In that case, I still have too much money inna game.
I can fix that too.
We'll see.
http://www.debka.com/article/20912/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... andal.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 ... -bail.html
Big Time Important 401a Investor Stuff
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/wh ... d-manager/
http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/ ... spx?page=0
Stay tooned...
IF YOU ARE GOING TO FIGHT TO SAVE THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS, YOUR FIRST OBLIGATION IS TO SAVE YOURSELF. WE NEED NUMBERS ON OUR SIDE TO BALANCE THE MONEY ON THE OTHER SIDE. START BY MAKING YOUR 401A WORK FOR YOU. YOU FIGHT BEST FROM A FIRM FOOTING ON A SOLID FOUNDATION. HERE'S WHAT I'M DOING...
Saturday, April 30, 2011, 01:33 PM
I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position.
-- Mark Twain
It's Really Really Fun, Boys And Girls, And So Very Educational Too....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/fi ... round-two/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/la ... aventador/
I went deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon April 29th...
“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find one despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”
-- Ed Yardini
Thank God I Grew Up When Honesty Demanded That You Call Them Sugar Pops And Sugar Smacks And Sugar Frosted Flakes. And It Was OK That Quakers Made Puffed Rice And Puffed Wheat For Kids That Were Shot From Guns ....
Friday, April 22, 2011, 03:27 PM
The more you know, the harder it is to take decisive action. Once you become informed, you start seeing complexities and shades of gray. You realize that nothing is as clear and simple as it first appears. Ultimately, knowledge is paralyzing. Being a man of action, I can’t afford to take that risk.
– Calvin
Usually there is some rock 'n roll with a personal link to my life linked here. Here's some radio of a different sort....
http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/04/22/ ... e-dylan-2/
There are times that I realize just how outa place I am today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGpS6LHeBC0
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --John Maynard Keynes
Wednesday (4/20) Action looked good. I changed my mind about risk and added to my stock position at the end of the day.....
Here's where I stood Thurs AM allocationwise....
I picked up a few bucks onna day and I'm nicely set up for Monday....If the bottom doesn't fall out.
I may go deeper into stocks Monday. Here's why.
My risk management and capital preservation has cost me money every time I've gotten anxious and lightened up since the bottom in 2009. I've gotten back in some distance behind the "close yer eyes and hang on" crowd, but.... It ain't a sin to be wrong, everybody makes mistakes. It IS a sin to stay wrong. So I don't. Of course, my caution allowed me to actually make money in my 401a in 2008 when everybody else was bleeding from the eyeballs. One day it'll save my donkey again. I just gotta keep fear matched against greed an' get the balance right.....
I'm going deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon.
“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find ond despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”
-- Ed Yardini
Cup And Handle. Bullish Pattern. The Market Is Soaring For Exactly The Wrong Reason. But They Don't Put Asterisk On Gains. A Dollar Gained Is A Retirement Dollar For Me And My Family Whether I Hated The Economic Conditions That Made It For Me Or Not. So I'm Way Long And Not Liking It.
Stay tooned.....
"Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me" That's How You Get Talking Heads Pontificating About A Healed Economy And Business Looking Up. Pay No Attention To What Is Behind The Screen......
Saturday, March 26, 2011, 03:31 PM
"The effect of mobiles, computers, satellites—there is a generation coming that is outside the traditional controls. Normally, generations re-create themselves. But something else is happening."
-- Mohamed Haykal
Trower. Find Something That Works And Keep On Doing It. Kinda Like Investing. Shame To Lose Dewar Along The Way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfn6598L ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1jZO54m ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLHZsK4e ... re=related
There are things I can't do, like serious fundamental analysis of thousands of companies books and in depth analysis of governmental politics and sociopolitical movements on resource allocation and technological and sociopolitical forces versus the political imperatives in the MENA area. I don't have access to the raw data and I'm too busy laying out and bending high purity gas lines.
But I can get price vs time on a near instantaneous basis and there is little data available that is more cogent, accurate or determinant. And technical levels left behind mean it's modified risk on with an eye toward how the tenor of the market has changed.
Never mind what makes sense. The market never talks to you more directly than it does with price. Glow inna dark sea food onna West Coast, the Korean war Redux, the risk of Iran and Hamas in Lebanon, the forced retirement of way too many people way too young, major midwest cities drying up and blowing away, very high oil prices, Euro debt issues, etc, if prices go up through resistance and hold, I gotta be thinking, Buy. So I started to scale in last week.
Part way in last week, maybe more this Monday. Maybe.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/no ... -not-safe/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ho ... this-time/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42258117/ns ... e_economy/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/pr ... roam-free/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/ci ... cys-costs/
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201103 ... ed-kingdom
Stay Tooned.
Life Is About Cycles, Dialectical Materialism And Spiritual Concatenation, Yin And Yang, Secular And Cyclical, Two Stroke And Four Stroke....
Saturday, February 19, 2011, 04:21 PM
"When the Fed is the bartender everybody drinks until they fall down."
— Paul McCulley
This Is EXTREME And Now I'm REALLY squirrelly about staying long. I've got a lot of gains to keep, and the potential for substantial losses in a short time.
Today was UGLY!!!
Discretion Is The Better Part Of Valor
During lunch I went from 95% Stocks to 99% Cash (Stable Value Fund) with minimal effect from the rapid trading rules. Let's let things settle down. I can get back in in one day, but as the old song goes, "Don't Make Your Move Too soon..."
Stay Tooned....
Talked To A Business Agent At The Last Meeting. There Are Four Of My Apprentice Class Still Active. Two Are In The Business Office And Two Are Still Working In The Field. Makes Me Wanna Ride Fast And Take Chances.
Saturday, February 12, 2011, 12:25 PM
It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible.
--Mark Twain
James Cotton had some smokin' performances at the Monterey Jazz Festival's Sat Afternoon Blues Show that are out there waiting to be discovered. They were broadcast live on KJAZ. My tapes were DBX encoded, dubbed to cassette, and long gone. The KJAZ announcer had it right. "These guys could start a riot inna graveyard."
Inna mean time;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTDpsOY2dX4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZXMWklGf84
http://www.jamescottonsuperharp.com
THE MARKET IS A BEAST WITHOUT PAWS...
Uptrend still intact... I'm still innit to the hilt, still with the finger onna eject button.
Excellent first six weeks. Gotta think about possibility and advisability of bookin' profits at some point. This is about a third of what I like to see for the year....
Just because it may make sense doesn't mean I'm gonna do it...
MONDAY.
ANOTHER up day
Uptrend STILL intact... I'm STILL innit to the hilt, STILL with the finger onna eject button. I'm STILL big time concerned. But I'm getting pretty jaded and can't see that it is doing me much good...
Still.....
Tuesday...
Still Long. Looks Like A Pause. A little pullback from a long way up there. It's not time yet......
Wednesday
Even more up, blah blah blah,,,,,
Stay Tooned....
Nothing Sharpens Your Appreciation Of Life And Clarifies The Difference Between Fear And Respect Like Looking Over The Edge. But That's A Third Beer Story....
Saturday, February 5, 2011, 02:29 PM
"Worry does not empty tomorrow of its sorrow; it empties today of its strength."
Corrie Ten Boom
Now For Something cOmPlEtElY dIfFeReNt....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thWtzBsd ... re=related
Speaking of Fear and Respect...
The Markets are always about the balance between Greed and Fear. Lately it is all about greed and the fear of losing out, not losses.
Wall Street always comes back to it's roots... which is Main Street. And Main Street ain't pretty lately. Especially compared to Wall Street. My asset allocation is all about taking what Wall Street offers with an I on the door. Will I get out in time?
I upped my contributions inna 401a when we got some decent choices 6 years ago and that and good and aggressive asset allocation has got the balance and the daily volatility up to where the good days are party hearty and the bad days are like stepping onna rake in tall grass. If I'da had decent choices for the full 20 years of the 401a, now'd be all about nicking some bases on hits on good pitches and I'd have a lot of comfort about retiring is a coupla three or four weeks instead of three or four years after I've run it all the way out...
Oh Well. That's a different life. Somebody else's. So now I gotta get what I can outta what I got inna 401a. Come to think of it, I'm real comfortable with that. YMMV.
So Merrill Lynch’s coverage of Irish banking, before the crisis, was dead on. And they threw their analyst under the bus to whore for more banking fees. Cowards. Criminal toadies. Chickenshit pimps who would sell their mothers into forced prostitution for a buck. That is Merrill Lynch, and the fact that a single goddamned dollar of my tax money went to these spineless, money-grubbing parasites makes my stomach turn. If Goldman Sachs is a vampire squid, then Merrill Lynch is Escherichia coli of banking. Whatever they touch gets sick, and occasionally dies.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/am ... -to-egypt/
Still long, still concerned, still ready to bail. The broad market is up around 25% since Sept, never mind since March 09. I'm balancing the rapid trading restrictions, the trend, the need to book profits and avoid losses, and squirreliness of losing what has not come easy and won't be easily replaced. A correction of 4% to 10% would not be unexpected. A correction of 10% to 20% would not be beyond the pale. The thought of grinding hard to get back to even from an unexpected flash crash or downside panic is not welcome. Multi year bull markets are a lot more fun. Autopilot up day after day is low stress. Bear market rallys can be viciously explosive to the upside and can be exhilerating, but they can go down farther and faster than they went up too.
Still, I have all the the tools and info I need short of prescience, so WTF.
Monday Eve...
DAMN! One Gawddamn up day after another without surcease. How long can Wall Street dance to the stars in the face of Main Street doin' the Main Street Moan?
I'm Keepin' On Chooglin' with tight stops on the IRA's and Tradin' Account and ready to pull the rip chord on the 401a.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUzl7_OpVLA
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00114.html
Tuesday
Another Day, Another Dollar Or Two.......
The longer it goes higher, the greater the rubber band is stretched, the more violent the snap back will be. The crazier the upside, the sweeter the gains, the greater the pains of giving a substantial chunk of it back.
I don't have a whole lotta fear. But I do have respect for consequences. That translates into a higher state of alertness and a determination to avoid giving ANY more back than what is absolutely unavoidable...
Wed Eve...
More O The Same... Tick, Tick, Tick.....
See Ya At The Hall
Thurs
Even More More Of The Same....
But Is It Rolling Over...?
Stay Tooned...
It Don't Look That Bad, Really .... It Sure Feels Bad, Though..... Could Feel Worse Tomorrow.
Saturday, January 22, 2011, 04:15 PM
You can't trust anything the government says. Wait, I knew that already. Thanks for nothing, Julian Assange.
-- Paul Vigna
...Then You'll Never Hear Surf Music Again....
--Jimi Hendrix Re; Dick Dale's Critical Illness
Akshully, I Got My Deck Shoe Surfer Tennies and Short Sleeve Madras Shirtz On And Here's Some Surf Music To Go Wit' 'em....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8__EwAT ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqC3BjIy ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWw55XhT ... re=related
Yeah That Is Who You Think It Is. And Chris Spedding Too...
I was unaware of the relationships between Dick Dale and Hendrix and Dick Dale, Leo Fender, and JBL.
Bloody Costly Days Continued...
So I'm All In Inna Two Most Aggressive Fundz Inna 401A.
And the post parabolic move/beginning of the earnings reports dollar losses in the account are a kick inna gonads. It brings home to me why so many of the guys I work and hang with are so comfortable with all their money in the GIC/Stable Value Fund. We've got 20-30 years inna trades and some coin inna 401a. We got the possibility of some serious upside moves in a few days or weeks time in the 401a account. But we also got the possibility of some breath taking moves down in a bad week. In the end, we gotta go with what lets us sleep at night. For some, that is the cash equivalent fund in the 401a and a regular coupla percent a year up in the account and no wild and crazy up days and stoopid bleeding from the eyeballs down days. Nothing wrong with recognizing that what you have in the 401a is a significant amount to you and worth being concerned about. Once you see daily or weekly balances bouncing around and gaining and losing you significantly more than you earn at work that week, you are obligated to make a choice about how to deal with it. Eliminating the possibility of losing what you got, making a very modest return and sleeping soundly is a totally acceptable choice. To deny that would be dumber than a box of rocks. Which I ain't.
But I see things differently than most other people. I still have a race bike and I think about track days and racing again. I'm kinda like into action and motion as a life style and a preferred mode of operation. It takes all kinds.... that's why choices exist. And I ain't alone... There are guys I've shown the what and how to who are playing the game the same as I am, for whatever their own reasons are.
So....
I'm getting enough of a balance in the 401a where what was a few dollars move due to everyday ordinary market volatility is now some serious coin up and down. Gotta readjust my concepts here. If I see the huge upside days as part of the process and can work with them, I gotta be able to deal with the other side of the deal too.
So Check out the chartz.
Looks like a parabolic move up in a short time that paid off big time.
So I'm building my 401a like mad when the weather is good. Sometimes a Summer storm or the first few storms of the Fall soak everything, blow the tarps around and maybe fuck up something badly enough that it takes time and money to fix it. Ain't no big thing. It's the price of getting something done. At least it ain't noo big thing as long as I don't let it become a big thing. I gotta secure everything for the winter when the time comes and react in the case of an unexpected tornado on the horizon...
In the last week, I've lost in my 401a what would have been a totally unacceptable amount of money 15 years ago. Like say the first three years of contributions and investment gains. Or, looked at differently, I've gotten my nose tagged hard enough to remind me that bad things can happen and that the chart above says that bad things might be eminent. The uptrend is just barely intact, is extended and has been unrelenting and parabolic, and has been cruisin' for a bruisin'. The market might be starting to roll over hard after an explosive move up and there are a lot of people with profits to protect and the downtrend could get ferocious. I really haven't been hurt yet. My eyes are watering and there's a spot of blood on my sleeve, but here is not a lot of damage done. But I have been warned.
Staying long in the face of every reasonable appeal to prudence and caution has worked and worked well for the last 90 days. Nothing lasts forever...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/si ... s-fck-you/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41188877/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/th ... b-killers/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41103288/ns ... itol_hill/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wi ... kruptcies/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/qo ... l-economy/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/market-structure/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41097319/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ho ... more-62383
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41043127/ns ... al_estate/
http://debka.com/article/20558/
http://debka.com/article/20558/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/no ... -long-run/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41086473/ns ... ork_times/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/se ... doug-kass/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wh ... the-u-s-a/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ch ... tail-risk/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/su ... events-15/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/gd ... recession/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ho ... ck-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/th ... more-62281
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/20 ... more-62271
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/mo ... wine-gold/
Stay tooned.
Startin' Third Week O' The Year.... I'm Busier Than A Long Tailed Cat Inna Rockin' Chair Factory Makin' Retirement Money Inna 401a While I Can And Prepping To Make The Moves To Keep It When It Gets Hard To Do So...
Saturday, January 15, 2011, 04:11 PM
The only thing on the level on Wall Street is the water in the toilet bowl.
Bill Singer
The first is the only instrumental to be banned from Top 40 radio.
The second is 20 years later. Interestin' story. I've got a copy of a live radio broadcast from a recording studio in the 70's in the Bay Area. Nice clean recording of about an hours music. Fabulous Rockabilly...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEBqpDDc ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUHz0i8_ ... re=related
I bailed outa stocks inna 401a two Fridays ago cuz I'm looking for a correction and it sure looked like the start of one. I kept IRA and trading accounts in stocks ona counta cuz o' diversification and greater flexibility in those accounts. False alarm. I was 99% back in stocks inna 401a by last Thursday. I'm now exposed to losses and penalties because of the a rapid trading rules if I bail out again in the next month, but oh well, there is a cost to everything. In this case I have to look at the cost of selling in front of or in the early part of a correction vs the possible cost of holding on deeper into a correction or all the way through one... I figure taking the occasional small hit is the cost of doing business. Taking the big hit going all deer inna headlights is not doing business...
Stocks Go Up On The Escalator. They Go Down By Way Of The Elevator Shaft.
At some point I will sell big time again. I'd rather it happens after rapid trading restrictions no longer apply. If the markets stay up for more than a month, No Problem! But, faced with losses from falling stock prices significantly greater than the losses due to triggering the rapid trading penalties, it'll be a no brainer to bail on a cascade down. No brainers are my specialty. You sell to avoid the wrong risk or to avoid the losses. It's stoopid not to...
Here's the run from 9/1/10 to now in the funds where I had a significant percentage of my 401a coin.
I jacked the risk way (around 100%) up for the reward. I earned a very good year's worth of returns inna quarter. At some point I'll jack the risk way back down because that is the other side of the coin. When it's summer time and the winds and currents are right, you put everything that floats inna water. When it's all darkness, lightening, and waves and the ocean looks like Gods's blender, you go indoors and wait out the winter.
Pretty simple in the large part...
Ahll Be Baaack.....
Ghastly Bloody Costly Day For Me... 1/19/2011
Well... Not Really....
I did end up the day with a substantial loss in the 401a, my family IRA's, and my trading account. DEFINITELY a substantial loss in terms of pulling that much cash out of my pocket and throwing it away.
But Lookie Here...
Here's where the market has come from and gone to since 9/1/10.
I've been aggressively long for most of that run. What made today so nasty was how WFO I was this AM gathering while the gathering has been good. No Surprise I got my nose bloodied. Should I have been more conservative going into today? Hell yes. Did I think about it? Hell Yesss!
But I've thought of it a buncha times before inna last three months and it woulda been big time wrong not to stay WFO. So I was right a bunch, big time wrong once, and still looking good in the perspective the chart above shows...
Time to pull in the horns a tad. I'll prolly lighten up some in all the accounts tomorrow. I'm still well ahead of where I could have been if I hadn't put and kept it out on the table. > If I can keep most of what I've made in the last four months, that's a not half shabby outcome for less than four months work...
Rev Shark is right; Capital preservation is job #1 and not putting yourself in a position where you have to use all your smarts and luck and three quarters of the next run up getting back to even is job #2,#3,#4,#5,#6,and #7.
Stay tooned.....
Coupla Things.... Guests For New Year's Dinner, And The 12/31 Data Has Not Posted For My 401a....Despite Being There @ My Brokers And Charting Service...AND The Dividend And Cap Gains Have Yet To Show Either.....
Saturday, January 1, 2011, 12:12 PM
Despite all of the talk about Democratization of investing, Wall Street primarily serves only the very wealthiest Americans. And that is a shame.
-- Barry Ritholtz
No Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com Kinda....See da header.... except not not... See Below.....
I got the right prices on the 401a site by entering the wrong dates... But I'm not so sure about the shares/cap gains/dividend reinvestment situation. Prolly close enuf fer what I do, so there ARE chartz. But they'll be even righter next week.
Interesting article in Nat Geo about memory.
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print ... /foer-text
I saw the Yardbirds @ the 'mo during the last tour just before they morphed into Led Zep... Two sets from 20' off the stage. Cream from half way back at the 'mo, Hendrix, A.King, And Mayall @ Winterland, 2 sets and I left at 2:30 and Hendrix was still goin strong... Butterfield w/ Bloomfield and Bishop @ the 'mo and later @ the Carousel ('mo West). J. Tull @ the Berkeley Community Theater after the Benefit album and again on the Thick As A Brick tour.... the Who just after Woodstock was released....GAWD... if I could only replay these note for note/minute for minute... as well as another coupla three four hundred hours... Oh Well....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLv7viCM ... re=related
I upgraded to Windows 7 this weekend.
I've got this old HP that is my workhorse that predates Vista; I got the Vista upgrade disk that was supposed to come with it a coupla three four months later inna mail. The VERY FIRST ITERATION of Vista. I've never upgraded. Sunday I did so, starting at 2:00 PM. "how hard could it be? What could possibly go wrong?"
I've been a computer user since '82. I'm an old DOS 2.01 Dinosaur and I got my eccentricities... The HP has a lotta stuff... all over it. Rather than lose stuff stuck in an arcane directory associated with a program, I decided to upgrade to Vista and then upgrade to Seven rather than do a clean install. Well....
The Vista upgrade disk didn't recognize my upgraded and patched XP system as anything it expected to see... XP was supposed to be DOA. So I un repatched my OS and beat the computer/disk duo into submission... Then my new version of Vista needed 107 updates to get modern enough to work...and be upgradeable.
At 11:00 Sunday evening I decided to upgrade my seldom used Vista laptop since I sure as hell wasn't gonna need the 7 upgrade disk inna near future. Sure enough, my laptop only needed 50 upgrades prior to Sevening.... Grrrrr.
1:30 Sunday AM, I had a Vista'd PC.
10:00 PM Monday evening I had a Windows 7'd Desktop and Tuesday mid morning I had my W-7 laptop.
To adapt to 7 or adapt it to me... that is the question....
Now a clean W 7 install onna brand new home media server I'm nerding with and I'm home free for a while.....
This is what '10 looked like...
I'll prolly write about it later...
http://www.newsweek.com/id/226493
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/fl ... udclosure/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/bo ... eddie-mac/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/am ... ing-class/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/on-mark-to-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/bo ... eddie-mac/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/wh ... t-in-2011/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-2 ... ubble.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ec ... ettlement/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ob ... cal-skill/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/ca ... o-not-own/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/fl ... udclosure/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/cl ... -industry/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/volcker-resigns/
http://www.ftrain.com/wwic.html
Lookie here.....
I've done my asset allocation with an eye toward two things.... Maximizing profits when the market was going up and being able to step to the side effectively when the market gets dangerous...
That looks like today. The market has been ready to go down for a while. It looks like the court decision in Mass. concerning Wells Fargo and US Bank and the payroll report were a good catalysts/excuses. I loaded up my 'chute and if I don't cancel my pending exchanges at the end of the day, I step off of the escalator big time.
STAY TOONED...
Dickens; The Man Who Invented Christmas.... You Have No Idea How Much You Owe This Particular Limey........
Thursday, December 23, 2010, 10:22 PM
"The uniform, constant and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition, the principle from which public and national, as well as private opulence is originally derived, is frequently powerful enough to maintain the natural progress of things toward improvement, in spite both of the extravagance of government, and of the greatest errors of administration. Like the unknown principle of animal life, it frequently restores health and vigour to the constitution, in spite, not only of the disease, but of the absurd prescriptions of the doctor."
—Adam Smith
Ya Gotchur Church Key, Your Skate Key, Your Line Level RCA Interconnect, An' Ya Got Me. All These Things Are Way Dated, But Not Quite Obsolete, Yet.... I Hope. In The Meantime, I Gotta Get A New Ribbon Fer My Daisy Wheel Printer An' A Roll O' Film Fer My 35mm An' My Wife's 110, An' A Brand New VHS VCR Cuz I Used Up All My Betamax Tapes ......Sure Hope I Can Find A Woolworths Or Monkey Wards Open Onna Sunday.
Saturday, December 18, 2010, 02:52 AM
"Change has a considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful it is threatening because it means that things may get worse. To the hopeful it is encouraging because things may get better. To the confident it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better."
-- King Whitney, Jr.
Chartz And Table Zup @www.joefacer.com
Stay Tooned
All Work And No Play Make Jack A Dull Boy. But All Play And No Work Makes No Jack At All....Gotta Get The Proportions Right. Know What I Mean, Vern? ("KnoWhutImean, Vern?) See below...
Saturday, December 4, 2010, 01:40 AM
We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.
-- Winston Churchill
It's a SELF DIRECTED plan, see. Not a self neglected plan. I've long since blown off the Balanced Pooled Fund because I understand that it is the default plan, complete with all de faults anyone needs. I self direct and I went into high gear around 9/1. These are my horses from then until now.
And here is where I am as of 6:00 Friday 12/3 along with my and the B/P Funds returns. Pretty kool. Stay tooned for the rest of the month as I attempt to as I try to nail down gains before they go away and at the same time, not leave the game too soon. YMMV.
Burj Khalifa,
Burj Khalifa, From Space....Here, Hold The Tape, An I'll Walk To The Other End Of The Shadow An We'll Save The Trouble Of Climbing To The Top Of This Building To Measure how Tall It Is.....
Stay Tooned....
These Damn Once in A Lifetime Market Crashs, Events, Flash Crashes etc, like '29, '87, '97, '02, '08, '10 And Maybe This Weekend Seem Be To Happening A Lot More Often Than Once A Lifetime.....
Friday, November 26, 2010, 07:16 PM
I am not a Democrat, because I have no idea what their economic policies are; And I am not a Republican, because I know precisely what their economic policies are.
-- Barry Ritholtz
Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com
iTunes has da Bee-atles. The COFGBLOG Has the KNICKERBOCKERS!!!!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-2 ... bonds.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-2 ... tners.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-0 ... -plan.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39435196/ns ... ws-europe/
I hung wit the long side an hadda good day.....a really good day.
There is a possibility of a ramp up into year end as those who live by the returns YTD, are lookin at dyin' by the returns YTD, unless they save a mediocre year by goin' all out for the last two weeks. There are fundz who are having visions of their client's bailing out. They will try to manufacture performance and the sharp guys are ready and waiting for it... I stick wit what I got for now..... I'm heavy in the aggressive funds and no place no place else. Let's see if they can pile on to the momentum plays and do me some good. Do I got my mojo workin'?
These are my horses...Ride Sally, Ride.....
Stay tooned....
Volatility; The Trader's Friend and the Investor's Nemisis. Here To Stay, Regardless.......
Saturday, November 20, 2010, 05:34 PM
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
--Thomas Jefferson
Back Inna Garage Band Day, When You Had No Talent, It Was What You Played. How Could You Sound Good Without A Vox Continental inna band? Didn't a set of Ludwigs make me a drummer and wouldn't I have been even better with a full set of Zildjians? Biff Acne Showing Up With His Fender Jaguar And Vox SuperBeatle Amp Had More Instant Cred Than Eric Clapton Bopping By Lugging A Harmony Guitar And A Silvertone Amp...
Ah, youth....
Another Moldy Oldie.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-VFq6nW ... re=related
The market is acting magnetized to a critical technical level. The recent bounce back up to and bumping up and through resistance and falling back through support has stopped my reallocation for now. Data on my website and theo-philisophical discussion and metamatic and cosmic allegorical ruminations to appear here later this weekend.....
Refied this week, just in time... Rates going up inna face of QE, bonds going down... Not expected and not good. Gotta factor this in to the 401a... corporates were good to me for much of this year. Gotta be concerned about giving it back in the market's ebb and flow and give and take... Getting what the market gives is OK. Letting the market take it back does not float my boat...
Pure platinum/diamond/gold on a financial website. Who'da thunk?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/st ... -way-home/
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