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Hey!!! Us Northern Californians Would Be Happy To Take Some Of That Rain From Those With Too Much. A Coupla Years Of Brown Hills And Lawns Inna Spring And Yellow Water Inna Toilets All Year 'Round Inna 70's Was Enuff, Thank You.
Saturday, January 28, 2012, 01:01 PM
"The art of investment is the art of selling. Buying is a lesser skill and holding requires no skill at all."
-- Harry Schultz
Dougie Sahm; Long Live Garage Bands And The Razor Sharp Sound Of A Farfisa Or A Vox Continental.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxsWRDeuxTE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx_ln6e4tbQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-AWLocy ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MY0fesM4 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QCe1O6R ... re=related
I'm up 28% over all of last year's gains... in the first month of this year. It's a balance of cashing in on the rips and buying the dips vs letting it ride and not making your move too soon. The buying is one part. Selling is the other. Let's see how this year works out.
My original 60/40 from last year is now 76/23 as stocks have gone up. That is way rich for a bear market, which I believe that we are in and will stay in for a while yet. But every hurricane has its eye and ya can't pile water up at one end of the bathtub and expect it to stay there. I'm working with what the markets are offering.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... ort-story/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... on-abates/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... llwethers/
Risk on and risk off. Correlation and widespread investor fear is why I'm bipolar in outlook managing my 401. No matter how good the fund manager may be or where the fund may invest, panic in and panic out overwhelms everything. So that is the overwhelming dynamic and I'm hanging tough despite the surges in and out. The trend is up...pretty much and for now. But I'm STILL stickin' near the door.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/ ... e-thrived/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... mployment/
The original 99% movement...Occupy Washington
Patton and MacArthur and tanks vs US citizens in the streets
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/th ... -movement/
http://vimeo.com/30766340
General Butler invoked the 99% movement, telling the veterans:
We are divided, in America, into two classes: The Tories on one side, a class of citizens who were raised to believe that the whole of this country was created for their sole benefit, and on the other side, the other 99 per cent of us, the soldier class, the class from which all of you soldiers came. That class hasn’t any privileges except to die when the Tories tell them. Every war that we have ever had was gotten, up by that class. They do all the beating of the drums. Away the rest of us go. When we leave, you know what happens. We march down the street with all the Sears-Roebuck soldiers standing on the sidewalk, all the dollar-a-year men with spurs, all the patriots who call themselves patriots, square-legged women in uniforms making Liberty Loan speeches. They promise you. You go down the street and they ring all the church bells. Promise you the sun, the moon, the stars and the earth,–anything to save them. Off you go. Then the looting commences while you are doing the fighting. This last war made over 6,000 millionaires. Today those fellows won’t help pay the bill.
}h2]http://www.alternet.org/teaparty/153973/why_we_got_ayn_rand_instead_of_fdr%3A_thomas_frank_on_how_tea_party_%27populism%27_derailed_a_new_new_deal/?page=entire
Stay Tooned...
   ( 2.9 / 1196 )
First Time In Years I've Dug Through The Fusion Section Of The Record Cabinet... AWESOME!!!!!!!
Saturday, January 14, 2012, 04:35 PM
“I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization.”
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/45997416/displa ... ginSlide=1
Book yer crooze inna next few weeks. prices prolly gonna be real reasonable....
The 401 is a "self directed" plan in which the participant applies a strategy and tactics to secure his retirement. Hope is not a strategy and "deer in the headlights" is a piss poor tactic.
Wed Eve...
Thursday, moved a little money from bonds to stocks. Movin' a little more tomorrow. Stocks are goin' up. Volume, sentiment, news, technicals and fundamentals don't inspire confidence. The only thing I like is the price action.. Still turned toward the door, leaning, with the weight onna back foot. I'm making money inna 401, but even more concerned wit not losing it. Check out this weekends chartz and tablez.
Stay Tooned...
First Week Of The Year. I Gotta Hangover Of Christmas/Holiday Cheer. Not All Hangovers Are Bad....
Saturday, January 7, 2012, 02:24 PM
Many conveniently cite a book that they have not read, covering data that they have not reviewed, employing methodology that they do not understand, and reaching a conclusion that is not shared by many peers. This happens because the conclusions support a viewpoint that they already hold -- quite fervently. As a result, people are willing to bet real money.
-- Jeff Miller
I just found a new one... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1SZfGgZ ... re=related
This stuff comes outa the woodwork. Gawd, to go back to '66-'71 and relive those years with a video camera and DVD audio...
And, just like that, a Rory Gallagher video recording of excellent quality from a superb performance I hadn't seen surfaces and disappears. Oh Well. Here's one I, at least never tire of....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guL3xWi6rmg
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... eview.html
http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/to ... 3054.story
No Change Inna 401...
We still have holiday/1st of the new year sentiment and momentum. I'm up close to last year's high water mark and everything is OK. At least at this very second and at this exact location. I'm concerned , watchful, and less than fully invested and leaning toward the door...
The Crossing Wall Street link is from an avowed "Buy And Holder". He's right, as is Rev "Saving Souls From Buy And Hold" Shark.
The key is capital preservation and risk management. So far, pretty damn good.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/c ... match-game
Time and price in the charts say that the bulls/dip buyers are in a place to strike fear into the hearts of portfolio managers over trailing the indexes right off the first few weeks of the year.
Fundamentally, I don't buy it. But standing in front of moving trains is a poor practice, regardless of whether or not they should be there in the first place.
Tues Eve
I'm on that moving train.... Caution is the watchword....
Stay Tooned....
I've Had Worse Years....I've Had Better Years Too...
Saturday, December 31, 2011, 03:31 AM
"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."
-- James A. Michener
Bonamassa. 'nuff said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxqYoZi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46UFXQVS ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0lIZHsp ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... vqFY2eM6jA
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... until-2021
http://www.smartmoney.com/small-busines ... 801218019/
This is one the regular weekly posts on my website... That this is for the end of the year makes this one noteworthy....
This is the first table above reordered. The first table above is ordered to make data entry easier/match with previous versions/my mind set. This one is ordered by ranking the individual 401 investment funds from most lost over the year to most gained. There is info here.
Cycles, ya know? Lookit the chart below.
This is a fund I've had available in the 401 since late '04. Cycles. When the winds and currents are working for you, even in as treacherous and potentially gawdawful a place as the North Atlantic, you put everything that floats in the water to make what you can when you can. When winter comes, the currents go against you and the wind goes every which way, you take what you've made during the spring and summer and hole up someplace inland that's warm and dry and stay there doing stuff that makes sense until something changes. Look at the chart. You can see multiyear cycles as well as short term cycles. The time to pay attention to both the long term and short term cycles came this year.
So..... What I did this year was go big into stocks when the weather looked OK, like for the first three months. We are in a short term bull market off the financial crisis lows of 2009 and the recent trend is up. But I never got out of sight of the shore. We are in a long term multi-decade bear market. The major trend is down. When things got dark, I went to bonds and stayed there. When the weather looked like it was lightening up, end of the year, I went back to stocks but only part way, again with one eye on the sky and one eye on the shore. This was a short term play as written about over the last few weeks.
Over the course of the year, I exposed myself to the upside and down side and made some and lost some. I was rigorous about cutting losses; the flip side to letting winners run. I gave back some from my high water mark, but ended up positive for the year and ahead of the default position.
Check out the table below.
If I'd picked the right one of the dozen investment funds available to the 401 and went all in at the beginning of the year, I'da made 1/2 of one percent more with much larger drawdowns, i.e. greater risk. The second best fund, I'da made 3/10s of one percent more. My account, managed by "timing the market" with available 401 investment funds (I prefer to think of it as "managed with capital preservation and risk management goals"), would have placed third out of 13, with very low exposure to risk for a good chunk of the year.
I've had better years. I've had worse years too. Not losing money can be really good. Making a handfulla Simoleans or a Drachma or two after the accounts are settled can be a major victory. Like here and now.
But it was a fair amount of work for not much return. Or was it? I have friends who've been in bonds since the crash. This year that worked really well for them. Last year and the year before, it didn't. The year before that, it was un-fucking-believable. Ya gotta view it in the context of your balance in the 401, the demands of life and family, and where you are in life, and what is going on around you. I just did the math and I'm down wid' it. I got some coin outa the 401 when three funds lost more than 10% and the very best fund made a return that looked like a old time passbook savings account.
Pretty cool, huh?
Feelin' Awright, Actually I'm Feeling Pretty Good Myself......
-- TRAFFIC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Wk1zmb ... re=related
-- Not Traffic
I think I'll buy some Bonamassa CD/DVD's. I'm pretty sure I made enough to cover that anna piece a pizza anna beer.....
Good To Know
http://rightwingnews.com/election-2012/ ... -semitism/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... veals.html
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... surowiecki
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/page/26 ... most_a_tot
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/fe ... ut-europe/
Tues
Re Ron Paul
Seventeen years and all of 4 bills made it to the floor and the one on selling a single piece of surplus government real estate passed. What a career.
"The unlikely elevation of a 76-year-old crank, with a few strange views and who has been rejected twice before as a presidential candidate, says a lot about the state of Republican politics."
-- Albert R. Hunt / Bloomberg
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... 21/English
Boy, I Sure Screwed That One Up....But ...That Was Last Night. From Zero To Hero And From Chump To Champ In 8 Hours...
Sunday, November 27, 2011, 07:51 PM
"The market is not a sofa, it is not a place to get comfortable."
Jim Cramer
Makes Me Feel Better...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs-HwuZw ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqashW66D7o
It's been a bad coupla weeks and I've lost concentration and let some things slide due to personal issues. I had some very bad news about one of my favorite persons in my life. And it's cost me concentration and focus on the matters at hand. It couldn't a' happened at a worse time either. My thesis for the year's end looks like it was wrong and I was set up long stocks when the markets cratered on the Euro news. I shoulda cut back or bailed a lot sooner but, knowing that there was gonna be bad news before there was good news, I stayed too long too long based on hope, a poor strategy. Damn.
My losses inna market pretty much pales in comparison to the losses in my personal life. That said, I've got responsibilities to me and my family for the future as well as for what will soon be in the past.....so....
It's Not A Sin To Be Wrong, But It Is A Sin To Stay Wrong.
So How Bad Is It?
I can fix this. In absolute terms I lost a chunk o' money in two weeks. Practically speaking, Not So Much. Year to date, the Balanced Pooled Fund is down a little over 1%, I'm down a little under 2% from up 4%, the best stock fund is down 4%, the worst stock fund is down 15%, and the Stable Value Fund is up 2% and the best bond fund is up 5%. My losses are not even a hiccup on the long term chart and I can fix this.
I'm going to cash/bonds and derisking within the restrictions of the 401 and in a market where everyone is leaning the same way and that may provide me an opportunity to undo some damage... Getting less long is the order of the day and the week, and I've never lost money since I began to actively manage my 401 and I'm not going to be stoopid about trying to keep the streak alive. I made money in 2008, but things looked so shitty then, so that going to cash was a no brainer; Hell, no brainers are my specialty. This year was actually a tougher call. Too choppy. But a nine percent annual return '04 to date, down a whole point in 2 weeks still ain't half shabby and I can live w/ that.
The Tea Party Last Year And The Occupy Wall Street Movement This Year. Shades Of The Sixties And Seventies!!. Maybe A Third Or Fourth Party? Oh Boy! This Generation's Choice Between Perot/Iaccoca And Nader!! Louis Louis..... Me Gotta Go Now ...
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 05:55 PM
Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.
--Unknown
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/hu ... t-roundup/
TUES
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... t-traders/
http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/
The Chart Don't Look Good... We're still stick inna range, we're just barely 3/4s of the way through the range onna upside, not much upside left, lotsa resistance above, everybody HATES the volatility and a lot of investors have given up. We're prolly going into a recession (40% to 100% plus/minus prob so far)... Europe is gonna implode, China is slowing down, the entire US government is FUBAR, etc...
What the hell, I edged a little money outa bonds and inta stocks...
End of the year coming up... money managers gotta inflate the market if they're gonna be paid and the market ain't the economy. Sooner or later we will go up again, shame not to have a mindset that accepts change and reality when one acts on the other....
I'm started in if we the the usual year end melt up and I'm not so far in that I can't get out with only a little damage.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... egativity/
Forty Years Ago, I Didn't Understand Why All The Old Timers Ever Talked About Was Retiring. It Gets Clearer Every Year....
Friday, September 30, 2011, 05:42 PM
Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz
Marshall Tucker Was A Rock Band Before They Were Country. I Saw 'em Open For The Allman Bros New Years Eve Show Inna 70's. SMOKIN'....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEOV5vWfSgI
It's Been A Rotten Week Inna Market... But There Is An Answer To The Social Security Problem.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/so ... e-younger/
I Have half A Dozen Go to Guys...Lakshuman Is One...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/le ... recession/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/su ... s-9-30-11/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ucktember/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.
And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... cal-union/
MONDAY MONDAY....
A Most Thoroughly Unpleasant Day.
Blues An' New Orleans Piano Onna Turntable.....
Saturday, September 17, 2011, 03:38 PM
If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.
-- Catherine Aird
Monday Eve...
I don't like the news flow, I don't like the breadth, I don't like the macro, I don't like the unfinished business, I don't like the disconnect between Main St and Wall St. I like that bailing out in may was right, if a little early...
But if we get to 1230 and confirm a breakout, I'll have to figure what I don't like don't matter.....
But regardless of whether or not I end up liking it if and when it happens, I don't like it today.
Wed
Rev Shark and a lotta other guys are of the opinion that if we hit the 1120 to 1105 level hard, it won't hold. The next level of support is a long way down and the drop could be breathtaking... Lotta risk right here... And I don't see the reward.
When I look at returns YTD
I feel better and better to be outa stocks. I will buy some hand over fist at some point... prolly from sellers who wished they had sold them earlier and for more money.... At the right price, almost everything makes sense for a trade. But for a 401, I wanna buy stuff when the charts go from lower left to upper right.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... t-dummies/
Thursday
Yup, bear flag in a bear market. Same old nasty downdraft in once again in progress. There is a bottom and the bottom somewhere below.
Hang on.
Closer to buying back in than I was... startin' to begin to think about it....
Rough day. prolly not the last....
I'll be back....
Ya Get One Life. Enjoy It While Ya Got It... Rest In Sobriety And Decorum When Yer Dead. WFO Until You See God, Count Ta Two....And THEN Hit The Brakes.
Friday, September 9, 2011, 08:23 PM
"The primary objective of leadership is to help those who are doing poorly to do well and to help those who are doing well to do even better."
-- Jim Rohn
Bonds and cash inna 401a. Protecting what I got. There are old riders and bold riders. But there ain't no old bold riders. At least not without luck and brains and the experience to know the difference. I'm an old bold rider, and I'm parked under the overpass, waiting out the weather.
In the discussion that followed, the city officials asked a few technical questions, and Arthur Nusbaum expressed concern over a shortage of certified welders who had passed the city's structural-welding test. That would not be a problem, the representatives from the Department of Buildings replied; one of the area's most trusted steel inspectors, Neil Moreton, would have the power to test and immediately certify any welder that Citicorp's repair project required. Nusbaum recalls, "Once they said that, I knew we were O.K., because there were steamfitter welders all over the place who could do a fantastic job."
Before the city officials left, they commended LeMessurier for his courage and candor, and expressed a desire to be kept informed as the repair work progressed. Given the urgency of the situation, that was all they could reasonably do. "It wasn't a case of 'We caught you, you skunk,'" Nusbaum says. "It started with a guy who stood up and said, 'I got a problem, I made the problem, let's fix the problem.' If you're gonna kill a guy like LeMessurier, why should anybody ever talk?"
http://www.duke.edu/~hpgavin/ce131/citicorp1.htm
I pay very serious attention to Rick Bookstaber. Read "A Demon of Our Own Design" To Understand Why.
http://rick.bookstaber.com/2011/08/work ... night.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/techn ... .html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/opini ... g-but.html
http://www.economist.com/node/21528635
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... xes-growth
http://joefahmy.com/2011/09/11/why-i-co ... o-sit-out/
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09 ... d-edition/
So far, So good....So What? STILL All Cash and Bonds and Still Feelin' Awright! About It ....
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09 ... work/all/1
http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-re ... 1314907779
http://vimeo.com/28940439
WEDNESDAY....
We closed near 1190 onna S&P today. I bailed out 150 points higher about 4 months ago. Resistance is 10 and 70 points higher. Support is 70 and 90 points lower. If that support fails, like onna bad headline plunge, next stop down could be WAY down. And have no doubt; the market is inna headline driven bear market phase. We have to write off Greece. We have to worry about Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. But see, if I knew enough to worry about Belgium, then I'd really be worried about bad headlines. We're at two and a half bounces. Two and a half.... That rings a bell and it ain't a good one.
I'm in a wait and see mode. In cash and bonds....
THURSDAY
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/at ... -tomorrow/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/we ... nform-you/
Stay Tooned....
It Looks Like The Next 5 Years Are Going To Be The "Interesting Times" Of The Old Chinese/Jewish/American Saying..... Google It....
Saturday, August 6, 2011, 12:57 PM
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
J Tull started out as a blues band and quickly evolved into Ian Anderson's vision of an rock ensemble. I've always liked Tull, but the early version with so much raw talent and different directions was never equaled.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 66284.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 91320.html
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/jethro-tu ... 83290.html
http://www.performing-musician.com/pm/s ... bunker.htm
Bonds... Check out my website.... Asset allocation will save yer ass at times like this....
I've spent some time corresponding with Dan Fitzpatrick and this is an excellent example of his work. I'm not a regular follower of his service but he's got a lot worth listening to...
http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3264.cfm
So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/th ... than-ever/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... e-curtain/
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.
I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... -a-sudden/
Monday Eve
I Have This List...
...it's of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.
DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....
There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/on ... f-america/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ma ... r-are-you/
TUES
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... mes-first/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/09/wet-n-wild/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... sh-legacy/
WED EVE...
We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...
I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 34052.html
THURS.....
Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.
But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....
Stay Tooned.....
Got My Mojo Workin'... Got My Mojo Workin'...... Jes' Doan' Work On You. McKinley Morganfield
Friday, July 29, 2011, 11:49 PM
"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
-- Woody Allen
Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.
Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com
McKinley...
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/muddy-wat ... 00374.html
I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....
Bonds and cash....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201107 ... ly-germany
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/an ... all-speed/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html
TUESDAY!!!!!
WED...
Thursday
Stay tooned....
I Listened To An Ex Senator Alan Simpson Interview On The Bi Partisan Deficit Report....Horrifying...I Think It Is Fixable. I'm Not Sure It Will Be....
Friday, July 15, 2011, 11:45 PM
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
— Michael Crichton
Death Is Nature's Way Of Telling You To Slow Down. Kinda The Ultimate Excuse. Until Then, No Excuses....
Saturday, July 2, 2011, 03:04 PM
"In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is."
-- Yogi Berra
Taj and Keef do my two favorite versions of Leaving Trunk. Here's both of them. if only video had been around when Keef's band did Born To Die.... What do Ian Cruikshank and Spit James have in common?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SHlnUr ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIzSy8Ln ... re=related
An' a little Taj Mahal channelin' Howlin' Wolf.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyP07ybz ... re=related
An a little Keef Hartley and Spit James....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6SQ1A0k ... re=related
OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!!! Smokin' week inna market. And I was All Cash. It stings, but it still may have been the responsible thing to do. Stay tooned and I'll explain why.....
I got out at 1 because the economy sucked, the Fed was through stuffing the bank vaults with cash, ya can't buy houses if yer unemployed, the banks make safer money buying treasuries than loaning money for interest, Greeks were getting their Visa card limits raised so as to borrow to make the monthly, China inflation and GDP was running into a slowing world economy, and the first glimpse of the next recession is occurring with 9% to 17% unemployment today ,depending on what yer smokin'.
It looked as expected at 2 & 3 & 4.
At 5, with everyone leaning the same way after 4 down weeks, the paint the tape game started early because of the end the quarter. Once the buyers lit up the tape, the scramble to get outa shorts and inta longs got frantic. the only red that week was end of the days locking in profits and after lunch onna 30th locking in profits.
So.... Tuesday. A lotta guys show up having missed the run up and waiting on earnings inna week or two. Do they (I) buy at the highs? Or do they say, "Aw RIGHT!!! A chance to unload at the prices I missed last month ...SELL EVERYTHING!! Is the stock market saying "Everything is better, we washed out the timid and it's UP, UP, AN' AWAY. Or is it saying " We brutalized the cautious, now let's break the foolhardy.
See, I just don't see how much has changed inna last month. Greece is patched over, but the German public is less and less sure about floatin' the rest of the EZ. The economy? Wall Street vs Main St? A recession on the horizon? QE3? Do i see the way home?
Dunno. But discipline trumps conviction. Price is truth and in my IRAs and trading account, I'm long and undiversified and even margined in the trading account. I can do what I wanna, when I wanna, All in long to all out in the click of an iphone. Last week was good But that is not the way it is with my 401a. There are rules and restrictions on what, when, and how often. I gotta move deliberately, like moving a building down the street, not a car.
This is the other side of a Bull Market, when I'll go 100% long the most aggressive funds and ride undiversified through the dips and hiccups. The down days or weeks 'll be nothing another few days or weeks of up won't fix.
This is a Secular Bear Market where the news is bad, sell offs are relentless and the updrafts are absolutely vicious. I gotta deal with missing the ups as the price of missing the downs. I'm in cash now and I expect to be in cash until I see a reason not to be...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43633233/ns ... _business/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... other.html
The blast back to recent highs left a lot of investors on the outside lookin' in. That is a ready made cabal of dip buyers. The market can work off the overbought condition by going down and letting the left out in all at once at a lower price, or it can chop around and let the left out in a few at a time, correcting in time instead of price.
Or it can run head on into a a horrible jobs report or a Italy/Spain EU conflagration and undo the last week's launch upward all a once and continue down through the 200 day moving average.
Standing by in cash. I missed 80 points in 5 days, I ain't gonna chase it if I don't have any idea where it is going.... The market is going to be open tomorrow, next week, next month and next year too. I'm going to wait to commit until I have some clarity...
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11174104 ... ivity.html
Stay tooned.
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