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So The Fed Left The Punch Bowl Out Too Long An' Wall Street And Real Estate Fell In. And What Ya Knew Was Gonna Happen, Happened. Then The Fed An' The Government Borrowed The Public's Credit Card And Refilled The Punch Bowl. Pourin' Alky Down A Drunk's Throat Never Ends Well. Sobering Up Gets Postponed And Worsened. Don't Stand In Front, Stand To The Side.
Saturday, February 13, 2010, 04:33 PM
My philosophy for trading is -- understand why something is happening economically and then look at the price action. If both of them works, go trade. If one of them is starting to fall apart, get out. And if both fall apart, get short,
-- Dennis Gartman
Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com. Check it out!
Hell, good enuf to make it two weeks inna row.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy7vnwXg ... r_embedded
Larry Faucette on congas
Freddie Smith on sax
Buddy Miles on drums
Mike Finnigan on keyboards
Mike was the SF connection. I used to see his band play at a club in Mill Valley.
Also on the LP were Jack Cassady/Stevie Winwood, coupla guys who also played good music elsewhere at the time.
The guitar player was pretty good too. The first time I saw him, he headed the bill at Winterland with Albert King and John Mayall's Blues Breakers. Two sets each starting at 8:00 and JH played until 2:15...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/st ... al-policy/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... amp;pos=11
http://www.newsweek.com/id/233519
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/be ... ing-gifts/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... hIeftRVyvE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... Xq1qk1ll9M
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/ho ... al-crisis/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/in ... -expected/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 53714.html
The Obama administration's starting out with health care reform instead of financial reform was a fuck up of enormous proportion. Newsweek's current riff is that it was necessary but still wrong. That news has been out a while. So health care reform is bogged down big time. And Too Big To Fail financials are fewer names but even bigger entities with the taxpayer an unwilling participant in the fun and games. Obama signed on to Bush's program and left the suspects and persons of interest in place and buried them in taxpayer's money. Which they passed around while the jobs just kept disappearing....
So Main Street sees Wall Street getting healthy enough on Main Streets money to be back to the big bonuses spread among fewer names while Main Street continues south. We are still losing jobs at a time when we need well over 100,000 new jobs a month just to stay even. Estimates for this year project 133,000 new jobs a month. That leaves 30,000 new jobs a month to eat into a very real 17% un and underemployed employment rate. Expect the "official" unemployment rate to float between 9.5% and 10% this (election)year as new persons will step on to the pier as someone falls off the other end...
So Intel and Apple posted good reports for the fourth quarter and they and other great names rolled over and started south mid January. Check out the chartz.
The weekly chart shows perspective, the daily chart shows where we are in the domestic big cap market, the 401a funds show where my choices stand with/against the markets...
The suspicion has been that Europe is in worse shape than the US for about a year and a half. Now it is starting to show. The markets are herky jerky between fear of serious bad things and the pronouncements that there exists the firm intentions of the EU to seriously consider that something needs to be done and that they may consider that it may become necessary for them to think about who should do it, if they can do it, and are willing to do so.
In the meantime, commodities and stocks go down and it appears that money is leaving stocks and going to bonds and that money is leaving bonds and going to cash and that money is leaving commodities and going someplace...
I'm standing to the side in the 401a. And it ain't an easy choice. All last year, the stock market made "V" shaped recoveries from every rough patch and maybe it will do it again. But that was last year and this is this year. And bonds are promises to pay and not the most comfortable place to be when promises and the future are suspect.
Still, business will be done. It's just that the developed nations are buried under debt and going no place for the time being. It is the emerging nations that will be doing business, but less of it and under some uncertainty.
So for now it looks like rips and dips in stocks as the emotions of fear and greed will jerk the market around the existing trend. And the trend that I see is down.
So I consider that 401a money is not real nimble and that I have to respect the trend.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/jo ... e-to-last/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/be ... more-51652
Oh, yeah... 100% GIC and Bonds until further notice.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... &pos=4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... MJFT2dMyIU
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... amp;pos=10
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35367044/ns ... swer_desk/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/pr ... -earnings/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35406859/ns ... d_economy/
Stay tooned....
  ( 3 / 1073 )
AoxoMoxoA... Palindrome Or Conundrum? Threat Or Menace? Juvenile Jackanapes? Or Is It Just Retibulent Praecidualism?
Saturday, December 19, 2009, 02:35 PM
For a substantial portion of the American business and professional class, a book entitled "Life Without Lawyers" must surely conjure some of the same feelings evoked in faithful readers of the Harlequin romances, a sort of vicarious fantasy filled by the joy of liberation from burdens, strictures, and anxieties that have come to define quotidian existence. Such people are, in my experience, called clients.
-- Charles N.W. Keckler,
Seeya Raht Here Later This Weekend....
Meantime....
Must Be Gettin' On Later In the Year.... I Find Myself Planking Salmon And Searing Steak Inna Cold And Dark. Real Manly Adventure With The Flavor Of White Hot Coals And Ice Cold Gin.
Saturday, October 24, 2009, 03:58 PM
Retail sales themselves are the best indicator of consumer sentiment as no device peers so deeply into the recesses of the human soul as the cash register.
--Howard Simons
Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com
Or They Will Be When I Can Get On To The 401a Site...Is It Me? Or Is it Everybody? Good Excuse To Find Somethin' Else To Do Today....
TUESDAY
I've gone into capital preservation mode. Outside down days in key stocks, interday reversals in key stocks and indices, stocks going down on bad news/good news/no news/first class earnings beats, and then the few stocks that went up on first class earnings end up going down, That's A Deal Breaker.
I'm 73% bonds and GIC and the remainder mostly long AsiaPacific as a materials/growing economy thing. I may get all the way lighter on the little bit of domestic stocks I own in the 401a and lighter yet on the RERFX stuff. Stay Tooned...
My readings as posted here over the last 2 years made me way too cautious way too early and I missed most of the run up. I listened to Main Street and the more cautious parts of Wall Street and I saw the steam roller coming while it was still 8 miles away and I got out of its way. And stood around. I don't have the tools here in the 401a to pick up the few pennies still on the road and expect to get away cuz now I hear the steamroller and feel the rumblings. Man up, face up to a lost opportunity and get back to the curb.
Norway, Australia, Brazil, and India as of this evening seeing the end of the financial crisis on their turf and putting new fiscal and monetary policies in place in the weeks and months ahead. Prolly more nations doing so over the next few months. It is NOT the US leading worldwide policy response to our financial crisis. This is us facing the great unwind of the Money For Nothing , Cash For Free policy in a less benign set of circumstances and less control than we are used to.
I can't think of a lousier set of circumstances to start into the Holiday Season with short of being at war. oh, yeah.....
Bad News
Set up for some serious downside. I'm all but out of stocks and getting outa bonds....
Stay Tooned....
 ( 3 / 1133 )
Tick Tick Tick..... Earning Season Starts Inna Middle O' Da Week. Is My Strategy Deer Inna Headlights? A Rational Approach To A Critical Juncture Of Risk And Reward? Or The Result Of Random Neural Output From The Brain Of An Old Broken Down Pipefitter With Too Many Nights Of Sex, Drugs, And Rock 'n Roll And Too Many Days Of Twistin' The Wrist An' Chasin' Down The Racer Ahead And Runnin' From The Racer Behind...?
Saturday, October 10, 2009, 04:52 PM
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
We are half a week from a fulcrum point. Think of a hallway with a door at each end. Ya open the door, walk through to the other door , open it, and walk through. Now think of the hallways set up in haunted mansions as death traps. Hinged in the middle, they are as solid as can be for step after step, until you take the first step past the middle. Then you are fucked. Think of Wednesday as getting close to the middle of the hallway. There are three hinges on the far door. Is there one inna middle of the floor?
Alcoa made 4 cents a share last quarter instead of the 9 cents a share loss that the street expected. The revenue was higher that Wall Street expected by 1.5%. But it was still down by 33% from a year ago. So the profit was made by grinding suppliers, closing plants, and laying people off. There is demand and there is a worldwide recovery under way. China is the difference. There will be more profits and more business done. Demand and prices will rise for raw materials and finished goods. The question is, will there be a national recovery here too and will future business and profits support the current US stock prices? It's a consumer economy (70%) in this country. Do you see a recovery ahead?
What it means here.... http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/on ... ntraction/
The writers I read have given up on rationality. It looks like the internet and housing bubble to them. The thoughts are that this will end badly. Or maybe not. Things looked great at the start of 2000 and 2005 and looked like hell in March of 2009. How it looks to you today depends. The question is, is it 1998 or 2000? Is it 2002 or 2006? How long until employment launches skyward or stock prices implode? What would you do if you knew the answer? What would you do if you didn't?
Solid Gold Place To Start For The 401a Participant. http://www.thestreet.com/story/10608336 ... riend.html
http://www2.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6313
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... ZfOLKO2Zpk
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33212991/ns ... d_economy/
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama
http://www.jconline.com/article/2009100 ... /910070345
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33157665/ns ... vironment/
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/08/news/ec ... /index.htm
Pretty much describes where my head is at....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/th ... t-history/
Extremely thought provoking for the buy and hold 401a participant. It is not without holes, but I've read this book before and I can fill some of them in myself and interpret my way past others.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/ho ... more-39371
Tick Tick Tick...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... p2WcXs3fP4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... z0hsBTTR4A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtIJ017J ... re=related
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125530360128479161.html
Main St vs Wall Street
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/li ... nightmare/
I'm watching and waiting....
I've moved my 401a to an outsized position in cash for safety during a potentially very volatile time and for quick deployment back to stocks if an end of year run up starts. I have a smaller proportion in bonds for safety and income. I'm about 1/8 in EuroAsia as a weak dollar/commodity/growth play, and a tag end in small cap cuz I stopped one or two exchanges short. My Website has details to 4 decimal places.
Waiting....
FULCRUM DAY
You better be conservative or ready to turn onna dime.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/getting-better/
It might be that things "Have Got To Get Better Inna Little While". If so there will be plenty of time for me to get way long then.
WED AM
Intel and JPM report good quarters and good/mixed forecasts. Economically, it is not ragingly bullish. But markets spike up. Fifty percent of S&P 500 revenues come from overseas. There will be profits and revenue. But domestic jobs, government spending, and housing are not going to move strongly in the right direction for a while. I think that realization has yet to be fully appreciated by investors. If the rest of the world raises interest rates or we have a lousy Christmas economy/housing drops another increment when rising rates make the FED/Treasury stop printing money, we could see a serious dip down. The near/long term upside is limited. Downside is less limited. It's about potentials, not imperatives. Listening to what the markets say and being ready to react to protect what you have today is as important as ever. I'm thinking about what to do with the 401a later today.
WED Afternoon....
Definitely feels toppish.
That said, I'm leaning toward tossin' in some 401a
money on the year end run up...
Stay tooned. To be continued....
GAWD!!! This Is A Mess! An Amazing Bear Market Rally, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, And Private Investors Who Missed It, End Of The Year Three Months Away, One Last Chance To Look Good, And A Dawning Awareness That 26 Million Unemployed And Underemployed Ain't Gonna Make For A Merry Christmas Shopping Season. Could The Markets Be Up At Years End? We'll See.
Saturday, October 3, 2009, 05:04 PM
"The Financial Instability Hypothesis suggests that over periods of prolonged prosperity, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance (stable) to a structure that increasingly emphasizes speculative and Ponzi finance (unstable)."
-- Hyman Minsky
"I can dodge folly without backing into fear."
Nero Wolfe
Stay Tooned.
Ye Auld Regal Extraordinaree Especkial Thursday Night Post
Thursday, September 24, 2009, 08:24 PM
Lookie Here Boys and Girls..
CLICKIT!!!!!
We've come a long way in 7 months. We've had our dips and fits and starts, but from way too low, we've steadily gone way too high. Every time the market should have paused and corrected or churned sideways to correct in price or time, it resumed the climb.
Yesterday something changed. See....
Check out this week, especially at 2:15 P.M. Wed Afternoon
CLICKIT!!!
The Fed has been the market's friend. Yesterday it gave a good message to the market and the good news spiked the market up hard...and then the market sold off. And Wednesday was an Outside Down Day. (Ask me when you see me). Over the past 7 months, news, all news, good or bad, pretty much sent the market up. Yesterday's good news sent the market down. Today's bad housing news and good job news sent the market down. Ya gotta watch what the market does with the news it gets. Ya gotta especially watch for a change of character.
I'm now down to about 20% stocks/80% money from 60%/40% and 60% of the 20% is in offshore stocks.
I'm not confident and I'm major getting outa company and economy risk and getting into bonds and the GIC's security. I may go farther that direction Friday.
Nuttin' Clever Comes To Mind....An' My Elbow Hurts...You Fill It In For Once.
Friday, September 18, 2009, 11:01 PM
Thank you America, for the great choice between the spineless left and the lunatic right.
--Alan Farley
Stay tooned
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f64XZRRs ... re=related
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/wh ... ts-losses/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/th ... r-sort-of/
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... holtz-Says
My 401a is sixty four percent stocks and the rest in bonds. The market WILL crack. But I dunno when. All the people who mistrusted and hated this rally all the way up are standing by, ready to finally buy any pullback. And they've been waiting for months. But it is easier to plan to buy when stocks are going down than it is when they actually lose value. Some people (like me) gave up waiting for a pullback and bought in on the way up, supporting more upside. More will do so. But there are a lot of profits out there. And everybody who took partial profits on the way up ended up leaving money on the table. So there is a ton of pent up sales to protect profits hanging in mid air. If the whoosh down comes on major non market bad news, it could overwhelm and panic the dip buyers and become a self reinforcing cascade. But the pro's NEED to be up at year end to keep their jobs and they will toss in the kitchen sink to make it so. And the pols NEED to be up at the end of the year and into the '10 elections to be re elected so they will borrow and spend everything available to you, the taxpayer. But at least the money pros can lock the year in early by not waiting until the last week of the year to declare victory. It may end up a competition to sneak out the door early. But if you look at post 2000 to date as a bear market with one complete multi year bear market rally built on private debt and a partially complete bear market rally built on emotion and public debt, you face the possibility that the rally could have a ways yet to go.
Or maybe the PollyAnna's are right and the whoosh up since March is the market being a leading indicator about the bear market being
history and predicting a complete and total recovery in the months ahead.
There's a lot of rationalizations and possible outcomes. But there are two two measures of reality that are unequivocal and that are available to me in instantaneous and raw form; time and price. Markets are in a sustained uptrend after a gawdawful plunge and looking toppish, and I'm partially aboard with my finger on the eject button.
http://men.style.com/gq/features/landin ... tent_10957
Stay Tooned, Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.
Indian Summer In SF, 90 Degree an' Sunny, Music Inna Park, Saturday Off, Markets @ Yearly Highs, I'll Worry About Tomorrow Tomorrow...
Saturday, August 29, 2009, 03:13 PM
A knowledge of the path cannot be substituted for putting one foot in front of the other.
- M.C. Richards
TUESDAY EVE:
Sold some stock today, I'll finish selling tomorrow, leavin' only tag endz in the 401a fer tracking purposes. I'm mostly in bonds and mostly non gov bonds.
Hang On....
WEDNESDAY EVE:
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchart/2 ... etter.html
'bout a month's worth of action. SPECTACULAR gains, a roll over, a pretty good bounce and just the start of a second rollover. But the character of the market has changed. The likelihood of a substantial risk to the downside is substantially greater. I read a lot and trade some two. It's for real, but not a done deal... but I'm lined up that way. Twelve percent stock and the rest bonds and GIC. YMMV.
See ya at the hall.
Yup... Unhuh Uhhuhh. EarlierThis Week I Decided That Knowing Too Much About What A Dire State The World Was In Was Costing Me Profits. I Emptied My Mind Of Caution And Moved To Almost 40% Stocks. Party On, Dood!!!!
Saturday, August 8, 2009, 12:01 AM
If you trade stocks in the short term, one of things that you need to be very aware of is that sometimes the action that seems extremely stupid is the best way to make money.
If a lot of people with a lot of money are chasing grossly overvalued stocks, it can feel pretty dumb to throw caution to the wind and join the party.
There are reams of sophisticated fundamental analyses out there that purport to establish what a stock is worth. What you need to realize is that the correlation between a stock's 'value' and the price it is trading at is very loose in the short term.
In fact, there can be a complete disconnect between the two for very long periods of time.
If you are going to trade in the short term, you need to decide whether you are willing to do the dumb things that make money or are you going to stick to the "facts" and stand aside while the idiots run prices up and down.
It's all about sentiment, mood and psychology in the short term, and it doesn't pay to think too hard about fundamentals if you are playing in the short term.
James “Rev Shark” DePorre
Charts and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com
Thursday Evening.....
So far... So good.
The Unemployment Number Wasn't That Bad If You Knew Enough To Expect It And If You Could Play On The Dark Side Of The Street. Otherwise, If You Were Long Stocks In Your 401a, It Was A Big Asphalt Face Plant.
Friday, July 3, 2009, 01:36 AM
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
-- Charles Darwin
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... llNt3iGquQ
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... obeTB25ZeY
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... quXjXBNKo0
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/usa-spendinggov/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/usa-spendinggov/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/usa-spendinggov/
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/01/markets ... 2009070116
http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... washington
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/un ... more-30927
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... WJtkeFK5yU
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... cWAOCmAfVo
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/ ... 5-ltv.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/ ... st-95.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/up ... ear-chart/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... v4JRht6M4Y
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/th ... or-supply/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... pK3J1JYpXU
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/06 ... -a-chance/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/mi ... the-world/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... RLpgz65Qto
I got my answer. Unemployment re accelerating, work week hours at a record low, U6 unemployment @ 16.5% We've been going sideways and we ain't gonna launch upward in the immediate future. Employment is a lagging indicator, but we've been going up on "green shoots" and the deceleration of unemployment and housing depreciation. There have not been enough green in the shoots to tip consumer's mindset into the positive, unemployment re accelerated and every indication is that the housing workout will take much more time than hoped.
CLICK HERE
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/nf ... issection/
Here's my riff:
Decoupling;
Didn't work. The US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. Still true. Especially if they're awash in our mortgage backed securities and mortgages of their own. The reflation trade was just a trade, a headfake. Real economic recovery is still dependent on the consumer and the consumers mainstay is his job.
China will drive the world out of recession;
China is export driven and protectionist. Who are they gonna export to and who are they gonna buy from? Think about it.
Mortgage workouts;
Gimme a break. Fannie and Freddie can refi 125% LTV. So find me some borrowers who, 1) Need to refi and can/want to qualify for a $400K loan onna house now worth $325K. 2) Are then gonna take a non recourse mortgage and are going to turn it into a refi with recourse and that will require possible years to get them back to even. EVERYBODY WHO COULD FAKE AN APPLICATION, DID! Who's the new home buyers who will qualify under the new reality and bail everyone out at the old prices? This with the U6 measure of unemployment @ 16.5% (includes "discouraged, marginally attached,would like, and part time).
The banks are fixed and getting better;
Great profits with huge amounts of taxpayer supplied almost free money. Where do they put it to work? Does it make more sense to hang on to it and lose less of it while the economy finds the bottom, THEN loan it out?
I dropped into a local High End HiFi shop and mentioned that the week's unemployment figure came in at 467,000 vs the hoped for 325,000. The guy behind the counter went pale. This at a location that, if not recession proof, has the clients the least likely to hit the wall.
Things will eventually get better. But the time to be out of stocks was the 15 months previous to last March. The time to be back into stocks was March to the end of the day, June 30th.
Now we gotta reset reality as driven by 1)last quarters earnings, and 2) next quarters guidance.
Oh yeah, and financial markets news driven by rising unemployment, Iran and North Korea, and auto and manufacturing bankruptcies, municipal bankruptcies, Boeing DreamLiner delays, state bankruptcies and Afghanistan, and, and, and, and to a lesser degree by garden variety investment realities.
This insanely aggressive daytrader and momentum and position investor still has his 401a in the GIC and non governmental bonds. It's more important to keep what I made when times were good than to chase what may be there in a equivocal and possibly dangerous time..... There will be better days somewhere ahead.
AND CLICK HERE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUtlsk0l ... re=related
SATURDAY EVE
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/as ... ut-theory/
WTF????? Ban Short Selling??????
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/ba ... t-selling/
http://watchingthewatchers.org/indepth/ ... r-restrain
Stay Tooned...
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