Hmm.. .Blogs; A Total Waste of Time? A Source Of Dangerous Mis Information?, Self Centered Self Gratification? A Dangerous Crowding Out Of Real Content? The Descent Of Erudite Intellectual Activity Into the Cacophony Of The Uneducated Masses? The Dilution Of Expertise And Knowledge?..... Pretty Much. 

[ view entry ] ( 959 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1104 )
Your Life Is A One Act Play And You Are The Author. I'm Writing My Life As An Adventure and A Light Hearted Comedy. What Choo You Doin' Wit' Your Lifes? 

It has always been my view that Technical Analysis is an art, and like art, there are a lot of really bad examples of it out there.
--Rev Shark

Chartz and Table Zup @

Damn!! ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related
I GOT to start listening to something beside my Wolfgang's Vault downloads.....

So as of Nov 2011, I was 25% in bonds and 75% in stocks in my 401. I was a mile out there in the face of darkness and despair, listening to Jeff Miller of "A Dash Of Insight". Jeff was saying, "Pay Attention to the data..." "Pay attention to what should happen..." "Government works THIS way..." "Don't extrapolate your fears...".

I decided that there was a significant chance that this data driven assessment was a correct assessment and with a rigorous money management, I could make some money at relatively minimal risk.

Today, I'm down to 13% bonds and 87% stocks. Much of the change is because while bonds haven't gone down much, stocks have gone up a lot. It worked out right for me and it was self reinforcing. I set my allocation strongly in the aggressive direction. I was prepared to admit I was wrong, reverse my strategy, and sell out of the position if it went against me. I was also prepared to accept my stock/bond allocation automatically shifting in the right direction from an already aggressive position as good things happened.

It is said that there is an optimum proportion for a portfolio based on this and that and that you should re balance your portfolio every so often based on this and that so that you get it right back where it is supposed to be. It is also said to "Buy 'em when they're cryin' and sell 'em when they're yellin'".

I lean toward the latter. I'm just a poor ol' pipefitter with one client and one family to answer to, unencumbered by too many expectations and too much conventional knowledge. I just know that stocks and bonds go up and down, and if you work hard enough to have more of what is going up and less of what is going down, and that if you lean harder on not doing anything stoopid than on being too smart, you make money. Kinda what a self directed plan is all about.

I don't spend any time on looking for the one good decision/fund that will be the only thing I'll ever have to do, or the way to avoid having to deal with an ever changing and complicated world. That would be a waste of time.

Still running uphill to the right from downhill to the left; still worth more than it used to be a short time ago. Ride this Slow Train until it turns around........ And It Will.

Fuckin "A" Tweetie Bird!!!! ... licans.php

Stay tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 957 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1077 )
Smoking First 6 Weeks Of The Year. On Fire From Here? Or Down In Flames?  

"No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."
-- Ken Keyes, Jr.

Chartz And Table Zup @

Rory... ... re=related ... re=related
Play a gazllion concerts and stuff keeps coming outa the walls fifteen years after you're gone. Miss ya, Rory.

Greece is going down in flames and taking the world's economy down with it. Or the long slow twisting in the wind and the story being headlines for a year has allowed everyone exposed to the story to cover their ass enough to get by. I'm going into the week long betting on the second scenario. I may duck and cover latter in the week/month.... but I think the markets are telling us that there will be more of a squall that a hurricane. We'll see...

Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 833 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1045 )
Superbowl Sunday; Prolly Get To Doin' A Little Work On My Superbike... 

"There are some things which cannot be learned quickly, and time, which is all we have, must be paid heavily for their acquiring."
Ernest Hemingway

Chartz And Table Zup @

To Choogle, Or Not To Choogle....That Is The Question...
They stopped by the radio station with the acetate off the metal master only hours old and the DJ spun the first two tracks, which were pretty good. Then he looked at the band and said, "The next one is pretty long... The band said,"Play it! It's a GOOD one." He dropped the needle on "Suzie Q". In those days I always had the reel to reel lit and ready to go whenever the radio was on because shit like this happened all the time. I had half of the first Creedence LP months before anyone else.

Smoking Year So Far...Made The Most Of It Too.

This is the way I see the world. It saved me money and made me money. Bonds last summer and stocks this winter. ... ical-rant/ ... both-ways/

Something is goin' on. The chartz been sayin' so since October. The market has had every opportunity to go south since New Year, and it hasn't. It may be that US structural employment issues to the side, Europe has been in the news long enough for the long and painful and grudging solution to it has been discounted. And that the threatening flameout of China, inevitable or not, is still out on the horizon and still out there somewhere in the future. And that US corporations are as lean as they can get and will have to hire to keep the stellar profits that they have been making, or lose out to someone who will.

If the above is all true, as of the end of Monday, I'll be at 85% stocks and 15% bonds in the 401 and lookin' good. But, if I'm badly mistaken and Greece goes down in flames with Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and plunges all of Europe into depression, taking down a huge chunk of China's export business with it, and US corporations start firing instead of hiring,well, I will be way too long stocks at the end of Monday.

Nothing that wholesale selling won't fix. I've had a good run since October and I'll move quickly to protect it. ... -1.1015716

 ... ather.html ... -nfp-data/

Post October, What's Not To Like? Aside from the 50% correction of the October move in November.... Kinda expect to see another pullback soon. Maybe a big one. If so, I hafta think about getting flat. 1080 to 1350 is a 'ways. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. But I'll react to what the market tells me. If the market consolidates on rotation or sideways action, I'll stay put. ... -together/

Monday Eve... ... print.html ... icle=47190

Lemme Go See If It's Where I Parked It....And, Second Place Is First Loser.

Tues Eve

Stocks Holding...Bonds Rolling Over...Stayin' Put.

You Ahl Stay Tooned...Ya Here?

[ view entry ] ( 793 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1099 )
Hey!!! Us Northern Californians Would Be Happy To Take Some Of That Rain From Those With Too Much. A Coupla Years Of Brown Hills And Lawns Inna Spring And Yellow Water Inna Toilets All Year 'Round Inna 70's Was Enuff, Thank You. 

"The art of investment is the art of selling. Buying is a lesser skill and holding requires no skill at all."
-- Harry Schultz

Chartz And Table Zup @

Dougie Sahm; Long Live Garage Bands And The Razor Sharp Sound Of A Farfisa Or A Vox Continental. ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related

I'm up 28% over all of last year's gains... in the first month of this year. It's a balance of cashing in on the rips and buying the dips vs letting it ride and not making your move too soon. The buying is one part. Selling is the other. Let's see how this year works out.
My original 60/40 from last year is now 76/23 as stocks have gone up. That is way rich for a bear market, which I believe that we are in and will stay in for a while yet. But every hurricane has its eye and ya can't pile water up at one end of the bathtub and expect it to stay there. I'm working with what the markets are offering.

 ... ort-story/ ... on-abates/ ... llwethers/
Risk on and risk off. Correlation and widespread investor fear is why I'm bipolar in outlook managing my 401. No matter how good the fund manager may be or where the fund may invest, panic in and panic out overwhelms everything. So that is the overwhelming dynamic and I'm hanging tough despite the surges in and out. The trend is up...pretty much and for now. But I'm STILL stickin' near the door. ... e-thrived/ ... mployment/

The original 99% movement...Occupy Washington
Patton and MacArthur and tanks vs US citizens in the streets ... -movement/
General Butler invoked the 99% movement, telling the veterans:

We are divided, in America, into two classes: The Tories on one side, a class of citizens who were raised to believe that the whole of this country was created for their sole benefit, and on the other side, the other 99 per cent of us, the soldier class, the class from which all of you soldiers came. That class hasn’t any privileges except to die when the Tories tell them. Every war that we have ever had was gotten, up by that class. They do all the beating of the drums. Away the rest of us go. When we leave, you know what happens. We march down the street with all the Sears-Roebuck soldiers standing on the sidewalk, all the dollar-a-year men with spurs, all the patriots who call themselves patriots, square-legged women in uniforms making Liberty Loan speeches. They promise you. You go down the street and they ring all the church bells. Promise you the sun, the moon, the stars and the earth,–anything to save them. Off you go. Then the looting commences while you are doing the fighting. This last war made over 6,000 millionaires. Today those fellows won’t help pay the bill.

Where do you fit? ... ition.html ... 2920120127 ... yiNh8VSQig


Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 953 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1123 )
All Hail Marx And Lennon... 

Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
-- Groucho Marx

Chartz And Table Zup... @

Ich Bin Ein Krome Dinette...
-- Francesco Zapparelli ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related

Awesome week in the face of all that is darkness and despair. Now what?

Sunday Eve...

71% / 29% Stocks vs Bonds in the 401. STILL leaning toward the door, ready to go to cash, still earning money. As Cramer Says, "They don't put an asterisks next to your number." I'm nervous about everything but the price, and ready to bail if it actually starts to look bad...

The FED gooses the market....Steady as she goes... Still leaning toward the door.......

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 938 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1110 )
First Time In Years I've Dug Through The Fusion Section Of The Record Cabinet... AWESOME!!!!!!! 

“I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization.”
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes

Chartz And Table Zup @

It's been a few years since I dug through the fusion section and anything vinyl with Al Di Meola on it is amazing with a very good MC cartridge. ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related

This explains my world view; ... n-fran.png
I can see the Outer Outer Sunset from my front door....

Situation unchanged inna 401a. I may change everything big time next week... Check it out ... -of-europe
New Monday Eve ... d-outlook1
 ... ginSlide=1
Book yer crooze inna next few weeks. prices prolly gonna be real reasonable....

The 401 is a "self directed" plan in which the participant applies a strategy and tactics to secure his retirement. Hope is not a strategy and "deer in the headlights" is a piss poor tactic.

Wed Eve... ... ses-point/

Thursday, moved a little money from bonds to stocks. Movin' a little more tomorrow. Stocks are goin' up. Volume, sentiment, news, technicals and fundamentals don't inspire confidence. The only thing I like is the price action.. Still turned toward the door, leaning, with the weight onna back foot. I'm making money inna 401, but even more concerned wit not losing it. Check out this weekends chartz and tablez.

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 926 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1146 )
First Week Of The Year. I Gotta Hangover Of Christmas/Holiday Cheer. Not All Hangovers Are Bad....  

Many conveniently cite a book that they have not read, covering data that they have not reviewed, employing methodology that they do not understand, and reaching a conclusion that is not shared by many peers. This happens because the conclusions support a viewpoint that they already hold -- quite fervently. As a result, people are willing to bet real money.
-- Jeff Miller

Chartz And Table Zup @

I just found a new one... ... re=related
This stuff comes outa the woodwork. Gawd, to go back to '66-'71 and relive those years with a video camera and DVD audio...

And, just like that, a Rory Gallagher video recording of excellent quality from a superb performance I hadn't seen surfaces and disappears. Oh Well. Here's one I, at least never tire of.... ... eview.html ... 3054.story

No Change Inna 401...
We still have holiday/1st of the new year sentiment and momentum. I'm up close to last year's high water mark and everything is OK. At least at this very second and at this exact location. I'm concerned , watchful, and less than fully invested and leaning toward the door... ... -the-euro/ ... good-luck/ ... -view.html

The Crossing Wall Street link is from an avowed "Buy And Holder". He's right, as is Rev "Saving Souls From Buy And Hold" Shark.
The key is capital preservation and risk management. So far, pretty damn good. ... tball-fail ... match-game

Time and price in the charts say that the bulls/dip buyers are in a place to strike fear into the hearts of portfolio managers over trailing the indexes right off the first few weeks of the year.

Fundamentally, I don't buy it. But standing in front of moving trains is a poor practice, regardless of whether or not they should be there in the first place.

Tues Eve

I'm on that moving train.... Caution is the watchword....

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 885 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1036 )
I've Had Worse Years....I've Had Better Years Too... 

"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."
-- James A. Michener

Chartz And Table Zup @

Bonamassa. 'nuff said. ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... vqFY2eM6jA ... until-2021 ... 801218019/

This is one the regular weekly posts on my website... That this is for the end of the year makes this one noteworthy....

This is the first table above reordered. The first table above is ordered to make data entry easier/match with previous versions/my mind set. This one is ordered by ranking the individual 401 investment funds from most lost over the year to most gained. There is info here.

Cycles, ya know? Lookit the chart below.

This is a fund I've had available in the 401 since late '04. Cycles. When the winds and currents are working for you, even in as treacherous and potentially gawdawful a place as the North Atlantic, you put everything that floats in the water to make what you can when you can. When winter comes, the currents go against you and the wind goes every which way, you take what you've made during the spring and summer and hole up someplace inland that's warm and dry and stay there doing stuff that makes sense until something changes. Look at the chart. You can see multiyear cycles as well as short term cycles. The time to pay attention to both the long term and short term cycles came this year.

So..... What I did this year was go big into stocks when the weather looked OK, like for the first three months. We are in a short term bull market off the financial crisis lows of 2009 and the recent trend is up. But I never got out of sight of the shore. We are in a long term multi-decade bear market. The major trend is down. When things got dark, I went to bonds and stayed there. When the weather looked like it was lightening up, end of the year, I went back to stocks but only part way, again with one eye on the sky and one eye on the shore. This was a short term play as written about over the last few weeks.
Over the course of the year, I exposed myself to the upside and down side and made some and lost some. I was rigorous about cutting losses; the flip side to letting winners run. I gave back some from my high water mark, but ended up positive for the year and ahead of the default position.

Check out the table below.

If I'd picked the right one of the dozen investment funds available to the 401 and went all in at the beginning of the year, I'da made 1/2 of one percent more with much larger drawdowns, i.e. greater risk. The second best fund, I'da made 3/10s of one percent more. My account, managed by "timing the market" with available 401 investment funds (I prefer to think of it as "managed with capital preservation and risk management goals"), would have placed third out of 13, with very low exposure to risk for a good chunk of the year.

I've had better years. I've had worse years too. Not losing money can be really good. Making a handfulla Simoleans or a Drachma or two after the accounts are settled can be a major victory. Like here and now.

But it was a fair amount of work for not much return. Or was it? I have friends who've been in bonds since the crash. This year that worked really well for them. Last year and the year before, it didn't. The year before that, it was un-fucking-believable. Ya gotta view it in the context of your balance in the 401, the demands of life and family, and where you are in life, and what is going on around you. I just did the math and I'm down wid' it. I got some coin outa the 401 when three funds lost more than 10% and the very best fund made a return that looked like a old time passbook savings account.

Pretty cool, huh?

Feelin' Awright, Actually I'm Feeling Pretty Good Myself......
-- TRAFFIC ... re=related
-- Not Traffic

I think I'll buy some Bonamassa CD/DVD's. I'm pretty sure I made enough to cover that anna piece a pizza anna beer.....

Good To Know ... -semitism/ ... veals.html ... surowiecki ... most_a_tot ... ut-europe/


Re Ron Paul

Seventeen years and all of 4 bills made it to the floor and the one on selling a single piece of surplus government real estate passed. What a career.

"The unlikely elevation of a 76-year-old crank, with a few strange views and who has been rejected twice before as a presidential candidate, says a lot about the state of Republican politics."
-- Albert R. Hunt / Bloomberg ... 21/English ... -view.html

WED ... -his-scam/

Stay tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 1195 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1175 )
Merry Christmas... Please Remember Those With Less Reason to be Merry.....  

(I was) At a Wall Street bar yesterday listening to a trader make an impassioned defense of Mr. Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life" and blaming the Bailey Building & Loan for the subprime crisis.
-- Kamal Khan

I was at a party last weekend and one of the guests, a 0.05 percenter (aka extremely wealthy), made an impassioned speech against food stamps. And I quote him directly: "I'm against food stamps." When pressed on his logic, he simply stated "I don't believe in them."
-- Mark Casa

Billham Cobley. No strong hand and an independence between keeping time and left right strokes.
Tony Williams. Ex Miles Davis and a demon to keep up with when he was hot... ... F84A70E0F9 ... B5RVPF-RBn ... re=related ... playnext=2

Tables And Chart Zup @ ... -new-light

VERY Tough Year To Make Some Money. Don't Take Much To Lead The Pack.... But Who Starts The Year Saying,"I Sure Hope I Break Even, That'd Be Really Nice..."

Ohh Yeah......
At this time of year, the 401 mutual funds pay a capital gains and dividend for the year for tax purposes. This looks like a big drop in the NAV for the funds on the order of five or ten percent. The loss is regained in a day or two when the share count goes up. I usually call this out but I forgot. Merry Christmas All!!!! ... ue-marble/

Spectacular!!!! ... ty/100209/ ... name-drugs ... else_.html ... evitation/ ... ing-binge/ ... lewis.html ... K1rDdRWbIw

What Happened To My Country? ... y-country/ ... chernobyl/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 1060 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1058 )
Season's Greetings!!!! Started Shopping yet? Me Neither.... 

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
-- Aldous Huxley

Chartz And Table Zup @

Dan o' Steel.... About that origin..... ... 10102|6720


Hard work and not much to show for it....Better than the Balanced Pooled, way better than long stocks for the year, not nearly as good as bonds... long term performance is smokin'. ... -12162011/ ... neer-Video ... k-box.html ... G&pg=6 ... 1/?slide=1

Tuesday Eve....

I've been long since mid October. it's cost me some money along the way. It was never a bet on the economy or stocks or a brighter future. It was a bet on the self interest of Wall Street where the toughest trading of a lifetime has hammered a lot of managers flat. There are two weeks left to make the year and keep jobs and bonuses.

Trust in a man's instincts to take care of his own self interests, rather than in his better side. He probably doesn't have one.

It's a way's back to my high of the year, much less past that.... We'll see....

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 851 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1096 )
Saw Bonamassa Last Night.The Wife And I Were As Impressed W/ The Drummer As Joe. Mostly Elderly Crowd; Almost As Old As I Am... A Few Were Convinced That The Program Was Their's, Coulda Been Worse... 

"No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."
-- Ken Keyes, Jr.

Chartz And Table Zup @ ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related
A lotta fun...

Ya Win Some, Ya Lose Sum. If I Can Hold near A 4% Return For The Year, I'll Declare It A Win. I'll Be Ahead Of All But Two Of The 401 Fund Choices With Less Risk Since I Was Outa Stocks A Good Part Of The Year...

Tick, tick, tick ... or-market/ ... louts.html

Holy Shit!!!!! ... n_scandal/ ... n-dollars/ ... -ayn-rand/

Tues Eve... ... ph/249878/ ... -congress/ ... z1gMRRM1ah

Starting to lean really hard toward going heavily to bonds...

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 894 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1159 )
The Markets Disappointed Those Waiting for Year End Melt Up Into Giving Up... Then It Blind Sided Those Who Gave Up..... DAMN!!!!!!!! 

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

- Isaac Asimov

Chartz And Table Zup @

One of the smokin'est shows I ever saw was Jimmy Witherspoon with the Hollywood Fats Band at the Boardinghouse... It was pre 'spoon's cancer and before Fat's went the way of way to many great musicians. Here's a glimpse.... ... re=related ... ubgjKvfyvA ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related

I've got ragged old tapes of The Hollywood Fats Band and the James Cotton Band at the Monterey Jazz Festival's Saturday Afternoon Blues show that is one of the top blues shows of my life...

As per last week, Sunday night I'd determined to gradually find my way to the sidelines on any kind of bounce, or bail all at once at signs of going off a cliff. Sunday night news of Central Banks actions to prevent a European bank melt down put me into neutral about 2/3rd long. Not half shabby.

I'm not all the way well, but I'm feeling better..... Having a buy out up 30% in a position in my trading account helped too... ... dividuals/ ... ut-europe/ ... ft-behind/ ... mp-change/ ... g-average/ ... citi-deal/ ... aken-over/

Monday Eve... ... -obstacles ... t1_xbIk67s

Thurs Eve... ... ert-crisis

Stay tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 1097 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1078 )
Boy, I Sure Screwed That One Up....But ...That Was Last Night. From Zero To Hero And From Chump To Champ In 8 Hours... 

"The market is not a sofa, it is not a place to get comfortable."
Jim Cramer

Chartz And Table Zup.... @

Makes Me Feel Better... ... re=related

It's been a bad coupla weeks and I've lost concentration and let some things slide due to personal issues. I had some very bad news about one of my favorite persons in my life. And it's cost me concentration and focus on the matters at hand. It couldn't a' happened at a worse time either. My thesis for the year's end looks like it was wrong and I was set up long stocks when the markets cratered on the Euro news. I shoulda cut back or bailed a lot sooner but, knowing that there was gonna be bad news before there was good news, I stayed too long too long based on hope, a poor strategy. Damn.

My losses inna market pretty much pales in comparison to the losses in my personal life. That said, I've got responsibilities to me and my family for the future as well as for what will soon be in the

It's Not A Sin To Be Wrong, But It Is A Sin To Stay Wrong.

So How Bad Is It?

I can fix this. In absolute terms I lost a chunk o' money in two weeks. Practically speaking, Not So Much. Year to date, the Balanced Pooled Fund is down a little over 1%, I'm down a little under 2% from up 4%, the best stock fund is down 4%, the worst stock fund is down 15%, and the Stable Value Fund is up 2% and the best bond fund is up 5%. My losses are not even a hiccup on the long term chart and I can fix this.

I'm going to cash/bonds and derisking within the restrictions of the 401 and in a market where everyone is leaning the same way and that may provide me an opportunity to undo some damage... Getting less long is the order of the day and the week, and I've never lost money since I began to actively manage my 401 and I'm not going to be stoopid about trying to keep the streak alive. I made money in 2008, but things looked so shitty then, so that going to cash was a no brainer; Hell, no brainers are my specialty. This year was actually a tougher call. Too choppy. But a nine percent annual return '04 to date, down a whole point in 2 weeks still ain't half shabby and I can live w/ that. ... ncome.html ... last-week/ ... s-deepens/ ... .html?_r=1 ... 02011.html ... ded-age/2/

Late Sunday Eve:
There is a hot "Italy (Europe) has Been Saved (Again)" rumor on the wires; Futures are raging higher. This may be a chance to get out higher and sooner than I had hoped. ... -dont-die/

I understand where he is coming from....

Monday Eve... ... ro-or-dog/
Now all I gotta do is to do the smart thing... whatever that is....

We finally got a turn upward in the market, I'm still thinking of getting less long and doing it during a bounce is a better way to go. I gotta figure this out.

Thurs Eve.
Still long, made a dollar, gave a nickel back... Balancing the possibility of a year end run up against the hopelessness of the confederated states of Yerup, the on going delevering of the population vs the wringing out of the debt excesses.

Tomorrows job #s will tell a tale. I should take the money and run.....

Soon... maybe.

Stay Tooned.

[ view entry ] ( 924 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1073 )
Not Yet Thanksgiving, Yet Holiday Season Heard Just Around The Corner.....Is It Me That's Wrong And Not The Picture? 

"Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask, 'Where have I gone wrong?' Then a voice says to me, 'This is going to take more than one night.'"
-- Charles M. Schulz

Chartz and Table Zup @

If You're Really Good, Different Gears For Different Jobs Come Naturally... ... re=related ... re=related ... re=related
Saw The Sgt P @ Winterland Back Inna Day. Blew My Mind.... ... tion=false ... re=related ... sBDFHKwXbg

So I'm still carrying way too much stocks in the face of some truly nasty sentiment, nasty potentials, and it's all based on the faith that the market is not the economy and if rich guys need it to be up, it will go up. Fear vs calculation and faith the the game is to some degree rigged. I may be right, I may be wrong, and I may change my mind. Stay Tooned....

Holding my own for the year vs any and all funds. I can be satisfied with that. Especially in this market...

Ahl Be Bach.......

[ view entry ] ( 930 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1074 )
Headline Risk And 95% Correlation Of Stocks With The Headlines; An UnEnding Source Of Amazement And Delight..... Turn Out Delight.... 

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year olds life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves Orcs.”
-- John Rogers

Chartz And Table Zup @

Before and After; ya gotta shelf life; know it or not. ... re=related ... re=related ... ity-circa/ ... -chutzpah/ ... %94part-2/ ... 84948.html ... ll-almost/ ... -11042011/

Monday... ... cohan.html


Still about 60% stocks into the year end in the face of whipsaws, daily manic flailing about and darkness and despair in the news. It's working so far.......

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 938 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1117 )
Every Pitcher Tells A Story, Doughnut.......  

Lindsey Campbell; What do you do to fix the economy?
Barry Ritholtz; I don’t know that the economy needs fixing. What do you do to fix night? You wait and it becomes day.

Charts And Table Zup @

I'd heard that the "hid behind the amplifiers" event occurred at The 'mo East when The Jeff Beck Group was 2nd act prior to the headliners, The 'Dead. The opening act had been boo'd off the stage in minutes. Beck figured that they had one shot and only one shot so they laid it all on the line by opening with their closer, "I Ain't Superstitious.... kinda knocked 'em Dead.... ... re=related

I started to go long onna 10th and I was up to 40% in stocks from zero by the middle of this week. I miskeyed an entry a coupla days ago and I'm way too long stocks now, but that hasn't hurt me....yet. There are cross currents under the surface of the market and I'm big time aware of the conflicts. I'm gonna change some stuff in the 401 and set up some contingencies next week, TBD. ... -10282011/ ... ful-blues/ ... ng-crisis/ ... p-dat-aet/ ... stors.html ... 2011-10-28 ... _of_i.html ... y-Bankers/ ... odayspaper ... -10282011/ ... -10282011/ ... g-20111025

Monday ... 1981-2011/ ... endum.html ... 10/English

Explains A LOT.... ... pid=287226 ... eaven.aspx ... ed-selves/ ... index.html ... .html?_r=1 ... 2128040CF6 ... story.html ... o-incomes/ ... onomy.html

I'm doing better than all but two of the funds out of the ten and I'm in good shape if stocks react well to the end of the year/holidays.
or, I'll have to adjust if that allocation loses me money. Stay Tooned.... ... treet.html ... ing-point/

Stay Tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 954 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1094 )
You Can Lead A Horse To Water, But Unless You Can Teach Him To Swim On His Back, Ya Ain't Showed Me Nothin...... 

“I’ll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one.”
-- Seen At Occupy Wall Street Rally

Chartz And Table Zup @ ...

Every Young Man Has Something He Hopes Never Sees The Light Of Day...Enjoy. ... 81731.html
The two dancin' fools went on to be moderately successful as did one of the guitarists ... Can you figure out where?

I put some money to work this week... maybe some more goin' out on Monday. Details to follow....

 ... ust-noise/ ... story.html

Europe desperately wants the markets to go up. Wall Street NEEDS the markets to go up. The government sure wants the markets to go up. Despite EVERYTHING, the markets look like they want to go up. I sense a theme.... ... -q4-rally/

I'm edging back in for the year... ... d-all-out/

JFC!!!!!! ... 0812.story ... -says.html

I started to put money to work in stocks on the 10th. I had some in, I coulda had more. But I made a dollar.... I'm thinkin' about what's next.........

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 886 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1128 )
Busy Weekend. I'll post as time permits... 

Chartz and table zup @

I got some money back in stocks. ma y keep it there, may not. .

Wed... ... -says.html ... -tatooine/

Stay Tooned...

[ view entry ] ( 749 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1089 )
The Tea Party Last Year And The Occupy Wall Street Movement This Year. Shades Of The Sixties And Seventies!!. Maybe A Third Or Fourth Party? Oh Boy! This Generation's Choice Between Perot/Iaccoca And Nader!! Louis Louis..... Me Gotta Go Now ... 

Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.

Chartz and Table Zup @

The original Procul Harum LP was in mono and they waited a year to release the album after the single charted. You wouldn't have believed how the record industry was run in the 60's. We listened to Jimi for 6 months on English imports bootlegged in while they worked out whether or not getting the album in the US was an idea or not. Anyway, here's one of the Haight Ashbury's stoner anthems from Procol Harum. ... re=related ... mands.html ... re=related ... parts.html ... parts.html ... -says.html ... nstration/ ... moneyball/ ... rticle%3D1 ... alter.html ... piece=1049 ... ory_1.html ... overy.html ... /OWS-M.jpg

Fuckin' "A" Tweetie Bird! ... ou-to-die/
Sign Me UP! Kick Ass Comments When You Scroll Deeper... ... ted-execs/ ... -wildfire/

I Don't Like Where We Are, I Don't like The News, I Do Like Bonds And Cash.
We Are Teetering...
If We Make It many Will Never Know How Close We Came. I'd Just As Soon We Make It. I'm On The Side Lines Until We Get Clarity....

kinda sad... But, its what makes Obama re electable ... ows-wants/ ... out-dexia/ ... t-roundup/

TUES ... t-traders/ ... ted-execs/

The Chart Don't Look Good... We're still stick inna range, we're just barely 3/4s of the way through the range onna upside, not much upside left, lotsa resistance above, everybody HATES the volatility and a lot of investors have given up. We're prolly going into a recession (40% to 100% plus/minus prob so far)... Europe is gonna implode, China is slowing down, the entire US government is FUBAR, etc...

What the hell, I edged a little money outa bonds and inta stocks...

End of the year coming up... money managers gotta inflate the market if they're gonna be paid and the market ain't the economy. Sooner or later we will go up again, shame not to have a mindset that accepts change and reality when one acts on the other....

I'm started in if we the the usual year end melt up and I'm not so far in that I can't get out with only a little damage. ... egativity/ ... ml?hpid=z3 ... 1L20111010 ... -exposure/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 966 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1051 )
Forty Years Ago, I Didn't Understand Why All The Old Timers Ever Talked About Was Retiring. It Gets Clearer Every Year.... 

Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz

Chartz and Table Zup @

Marshall Tucker Was A Rock Band Before They Were Country. I Saw 'em Open For The Allman Bros New Years Eve Show Inna 70's. SMOKIN'....

It's Been A Rotten Week Inna Market... But There Is An Answer To The Social Security Problem. ... e-younger/

I Have half A Dozen Go to Guys...Lakshuman Is One... ... recession/ ... escapable/ ... x-changes/ ... s-9-30-11/ ... ucktember/ ... x-changes/

It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.

And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops... ... cal-union/

Lemme ruin your day... ... wis-201111 ... -blame-fed ... ery-wrong/

More Lakshman Achuthan ... escapable/

A Most Thoroughly Unpleasant Day.



The Upside Can Be Ferocious ....So Can The Downside...
The Goal Is Capture One And Dodge The Other. ... ar-market/ ... story.html


Stay Tooned.... And see ya at the hall before the meeting.

[ view entry ] ( 1143 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1086 )
I Guess I Do Kinda Look Like Jerry Garcia Used To Look.... I Got There By a Different Route... 

“The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”
-- Damon Runyon

Chartz And Table Zup @ ... 10921video
Coupla Guitarists Always Worth Seein'... RockaWilliam Link And John Cippolina w/his Fender/Horn Stack... ... tTrackID=5
And Link Doin' His Own Thang....

HANG ON!!!!!!!

What Part Of "Self Managed" Do People Not Understand?

"Self Managed" and "Risk Management" Is Like "Carbo-Loading"... Ya
Gotta Pay Attention To The Words....


I See A Lotta Downside Risk. And Not Much Upside Risk. We're Inna Trading Range. And I'm In Cash And Bonds...



I got nervous after I did some reading. I'm still outa stocks. But now I'm 80/20 US Gov paper vs corporate/state/muni...

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 1078 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1111 )
Blues An' New Orleans Piano Onna Turntable..... 

If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.
-- Catherine Aird

Chartz And Table Zup @

I got this last week from Louisiana Music Factory. SMOKIN'!!!! ... amp;sr=1-2

Something With 'fess's music... ... -thin-ice/ ... ies-ipods/ ... n-anymore/

Care to juggle nitro glycerine? ... ideo%29%29 ... idiot.html ... e-fed.html

Last week's strength had far more to do with market dynamics than it did with the news flow.
-- Rev Shark ... efinition/ ... -home.html ... frank.html

Monday Eve...

I don't like the news flow, I don't like the breadth, I don't like the macro, I don't like the unfinished business, I don't like the disconnect between Main St and Wall St. I like that bailing out in may was right, if a little early...

But if we get to 1230 and confirm a breakout, I'll have to figure what I don't like don't matter.....

But regardless of whether or not I end up liking it if and when it happens, I don't like it today. ... -can-do-2/ ... not-to-do/ ... .html?_r=1 ... wanted=all


IN YO FACE, GOP!!! ... onomy-fail ... -bernanke/ ... 090711.pdf


Rev Shark and a lotta other guys are of the opinion that if we hit the 1120 to 1105 level hard, it won't hold. The next level of support is a long way down and the drop could be breathtaking... Lotta risk right here... And I don't see the reward.

When I look at returns YTD

I feel better and better to be outa stocks. I will buy some hand over fist at some point... prolly from sellers who wished they had sold them earlier and for more money.... At the right price, almost everything makes sense for a trade. But for a 401, I wanna buy stuff when the charts go from lower left to upper right. ... ction.html ... t-dummies/


Yup, bear flag in a bear market. Same old nasty downdraft in once again in progress. There is a bottom and the bottom somewhere below.

Hang on.

Closer to buying back in than I was... startin' to begin to think about it....

Rough day. prolly not the last....

I'll be back....

[ view entry ] ( 822 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1051 )
Ya Get One Life. Enjoy It While Ya Got It... Rest In Sobriety And Decorum When Yer Dead. WFO Until You See God, Count Ta Two....And THEN Hit The Brakes. 

"The primary objective of leadership is to help those who are doing poorly to do well and to help those who are doing well to do even better."
-- Jim Rohn

Chartz And Table Zup @

Tanqueray Man.... ... tTrackID=1 ... tTrackID=4
Townsend was right... when he died, it took a bass player and three or four horns and a keyboard to replace him. ... consumers/ ... -jobs.html

Bonds and cash inna 401a. Protecting what I got. There are old riders and bold riders. But there ain't no old bold riders. At least not without luck and brains and the experience to know the difference. I'm an old bold rider, and I'm parked under the overpass, waiting out the weather.

In the discussion that followed, the city officials asked a few technical questions, and Arthur Nusbaum expressed concern over a shortage of certified welders who had passed the city's structural-welding test. That would not be a problem, the representatives from the Department of Buildings replied; one of the area's most trusted steel inspectors, Neil Moreton, would have the power to test and immediately certify any welder that Citicorp's repair project required. Nusbaum recalls, "Once they said that, I knew we were O.K., because there were steamfitter welders all over the place who could do a fantastic job."
Before the city officials left, they commended LeMessurier for his courage and candor, and expressed a desire to be kept informed as the repair work progressed. Given the urgency of the situation, that was all they could reasonably do. "It wasn't a case of 'We caught you, you skunk,'" Nusbaum says. "It started with a guy who stood up and said, 'I got a problem, I made the problem, let's fix the problem.' If you're gonna kill a guy like LeMessurier, why should anybody ever talk?"

I pay very serious attention to Rick Bookstaber. Read "A Demon of Our Own Design" To Understand Why. ... night.html ... .html?_r=1 ... g-but.html ... xes-growth ... print.html ... o-sit-out/ ... d-edition/

So far, So good....So What? STILL All Cash and Bonds and Still Feelin' Awright! About It .... ... work/all/1 ... 1314907779


We closed near 1190 onna S&P today. I bailed out 150 points higher about 4 months ago. Resistance is 10 and 70 points higher. Support is 70 and 90 points lower. If that support fails, like onna bad headline plunge, next stop down could be WAY down. And have no doubt; the market is inna headline driven bear market phase. We have to write off Greece. We have to worry about Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. But see, if I knew enough to worry about Belgium, then I'd really be worried about bad headlines. We're at two and a half bounces. Two and a half.... That rings a bell and it ain't a good one.

I'm in a wait and see mode. In cash and bonds....

THURSDAY ... -tomorrow/ ... nform-you/

Stay Tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 1604 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1026 )
Things Could Be Worse.... Therein Lies The Problem..... 

[ view entry ] ( 1019 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1036 )
Henenah Henenah Henenah Hey, Hoy Hoy Hoy. Po jama People.... Frank Zappa  

[ view entry ] ( 967 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1077 )
There Is A Season, Turn, Turn, Turn.... The Quicker You Recognize That, The Sooner You Stop Plowing And Seeding Snow And Start Making Hay While The Sun Shines 

“Being wrong and losing money: that is part of the game. Being right and not making money: that is really annoying.”
-- John Hempton,

Chartz and Table Zup @

Find the Guitarist.... ... re=related

Ah Ain't Always Right,
But Ah Ain't Got Mahself Confused,
Wit A Deer Inna Headlights.
-- Buck Earl

This's What Situational Awareness, Prudence, And Common Sense Yields.

I Went To Cash And Bonds In Mid-May, Back In @ 25% Stocks Onna Bounce, Back Out Onna Weakness Of The Bounce, Back in Cash And Bonds Today...

Too Much Risk For An Insanely Aggressive Ex Roadracing Sport Bike Rider.

 ... more-69145 ... g-america/ ... ing-point/

I Love What The Internet Brings......

I Really Needed That.... ... ooms-both/ ... print.html ... the-sheep/ ... ce-is-why/

Uh Oh... ... hole-2010/ ... -pickaxes/

Stay Tooned ...

[ view entry ] ( 898 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 1032 )
I Know There's A Lot Of People Out There Who Are Thinking, "Please Dear God, Just Let Me Break Even On My Investments. I've Worked Really Hard And I Could Really Use The Money." Seems Kinda Sad..... 

"The truth will set you free, but first it will make you miserable."
--James A. Garfield

Chartz and Table Zup @

Twelve Year Old Joe Bonamassa regularly opened for BB King and held his own with everybody. Like Robben Ford...

Then He Worked With Tom Dowd...You Couldn't Find A Better Mentor....It Turned Out ALL Right.....

He Tours And Plays About 200 Days A Year. It Shows... ... re=related ... re=related

Speaking of A Churnin' Urn Of Burning Funk....

Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should. ... -congress/ ... about-you/

You Have Bigger Problems Than You Think.....

"Global Economic Downturn: A Crisis of Political Economy is republished with permission of STRATFOR." ... al-economy ... e-endgame/

Very Interesting..... ... or-idiots/ ... -industry/ ... mr-market/ ... -industry/ ... erspective ... quivalent/ ... ss_economy ... rom=sec431 ... print.html ... ate-lobby/ ... lshit.html

OUCH!!!!! MY BRAIN.... ... -weil.html

TUES>>> ... tting.html ... 3976.story ... he-bottom/


Obama's in over his head. Perry's pretty clueless too. But I do love what the internet brings us every day.... ... Transcript

Thurs.... ... to-show-up

Stay Tooned

[ view entry ] ( 897 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.1 / 1137 )
It Looks Like The Next 5 Years Are Going To Be The "Interesting Times" Of The Old Chinese/Jewish/American Saying..... Google It....  

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom

Chartz And Table Zup @

J Tull started out as a blues band and quickly evolved into Ian Anderson's vision of an rock ensemble. I've always liked Tull, but the early version with so much raw talent and different directions was never equaled. ... 66284.html ... 91320.html ... 83290.html ... bunker.htm

Bonds... Check out my website.... Asset allocation will save yer ass at times like this....

I've spent some time corresponding with Dan Fitzpatrick and this is an excellent example of his work. I'm not a regular follower of his service but he's got a lot worth listening to...

So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk? ... than-ever/ ... e-curtain/

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom

Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.

I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid. ... -a-sudden/

Monday Eve

I Have This List...'s of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.

DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....

There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds ... f-america/ ... r-are-you/

TUES ... mes-first/ ... sh-legacy/


We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...

I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman. ... 34052.html


Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.

But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....

The Original; Howard Hangs It Out.'m ... en___US371

Dylan Goes Postal... And Well He Should. ... -congress/ ... about-you/

Stay Tooned.....

[ view entry ] ( 742 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1072 )
Got My Mojo Workin'... Got My Mojo Workin'...... Jes' Doan' Work On You. McKinley Morganfield 

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
-- Woody Allen

Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.

Chartz and Table Zup @

McKinley... ... 00374.html

I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....

Bonds and cash.... ... ly-germany ... all-speed/ ... story.html ... paign=Feed




Stay tooned....

[ view entry ] ( 829 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 1131 )

<< <Back | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Next> >>