Beautiful Spring Saturday Morning And Some Guitar Music Outa The Past. But Then... As Long As I'm Listening To It Today On my Internet Device, Ain't It Current Music?  

"Patience is waiting. Not passively waiting; that is laziness. But to keep going when the going is hard and slow -- that is patience."
-- Unknown



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7V5-O8Z ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJqk2yWU ... n&NR=1




Every pitcher tells a story, doughnut.....


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... ring-2012/


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... chernobyl/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiCXb1Nh ... re=related

Nuclear Fires from a safe distance....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/de ... test-hits/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/bi ... big-media/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/ie ... tax-dodge/


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/wh ... ters-live/
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... -sake.html




Thursday

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb ... 72509.html
http://pragcap.com/3-likely-triggers-of ... -recession
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/ge ... ur-crises/

80% bonds/cash and 20% equities inna 401... with more of an eye on keeping what I've made. If I leave possible gains onna table today or tomorrow, I'll still have the scratch to make 'em later during some upcoming tomorrow. If I do miss out on a downdraft in the near future, I won't have to waste time getting back to even....

Asset allocation and risk management with the realization that on all but the sunniest days, you still have to navigate SOME weather...... and I'm not comfortable looking out at the horizon....




Stay tooned.

















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Spring Has Landed In No. CA Like A Ton Of Hay Fever. Flowers And Pollen And 80+ Degree Temps + Bikes Onna Pacific Coast Highway.....Koooll!  

The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.
-- John Kenneth Galbraith



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




Sixty percent cash and bonds and 40% stock. I'm feelin' the risk and not the reward....


Monday Eve...
Closer to 70/30 Bonds & Cash To Stock







http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/se ... e-station/




Stay Tooned....























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" Why Not Sell In April And Go Away?" Doug Kass. Why Not Indeed? 

"Stubbornness is the strength of the weak."
-- Johann Kaspar Lavater


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




Gotta Love A Band W/ Four Tuba Players. No, Not Tuba Playa's....
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... tTrackID=3
Parta What Made The Bay Area So Great Back Inna Day Was Taj Hangin' Around Here And Doin' The 'Mos...Here's Just About Yesterday At The Beacon Inna Big Apple....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SHlnUrhuM




http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/eu ... omy-guide/
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... point.html







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For there's a change in the weather, There's a change in the sea, So from now on there'll be a change in me. There's A Change Inna Market, There's A Change In Me, Gonna Try To Keep A Dollar, Just You Wait And See... 

"It is not how right or how wrong you are that matters, but how much money you make when right and how much you do not lose when wrong." -- George Soros



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOIL5Oq ... re=related



Stocks have hit the same levels three times in January, March, and April. And the news cycle sounds bad. Too much risk for no gains.



I'm reducing exposure to stocks by 50%. Mostly done... but still cutting back as restrictions allow.



The broad market does not correlate tightly with the funds in the 401 (less VIFSX), but it tells a less noisy story.






Stay tooned....











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No I Did Not Win The Mega Millions Lotto. 

I Was Prolly Gonna Take The Whole Week Off of EVERYTHING If I Won the Lottery. I Didn't Win. But I Can Take The Week Off Writing The Blog, Anyway. So I Will...

Still WAY Long Stocks As Per www.joefacer.com. Off For The Week Or Not, If That Changes, I'll Post It here Anyway...

So It Goes....







http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... brokerage/




Wed;

http://ivanhoff.com/2012/04/03/10-ways- ... -insanity/

WTF!!! http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/what_do_i_owe_you.php




















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First Things First. Or Not.... I Have Iron Clad Unbreakable Rules, First Among Which Is To Always Cut My Self Some Slack....  

A stockbroker is someone who invests your money until it is all gone.
-- Woody Allen



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



Sounded good back inna day. Still does. The live Record Plant broadcast were great... Play it LOUD.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... TrackID=10
The version of Doobie Wah does have a lotta more Doobie to it than the slower versions I'm more familiar with...




http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... mail-shows
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/2 ... /120329958
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... iming.html













http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/afghanistan-and-long-war








http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/world ... wanted=all
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/03/ho ... -2011.html




Damn good year in three months. TEMPTING to lock in profits...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/s-lobbyists-say/
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/busin ... wanted=all
















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Playin' Inna Band.... 

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Goin' Old Skool 

Listen To The Market, Not The Noise That Surrounds It.
-- Robert Lang


Chartz And Table Zup.... @ www.joefacer.com








Aulde Skooole Musick....
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/the-nevil ... 20208video




http://www.economist.com/node/21549968



http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/id ... 8?irpc=932
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/busin ... wanted=all


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/03/ ... grams.html



http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/ ... H520120308

I've been listening to Dan Fitzpatrick on charts for a while. He deals in stocks, the 401 deals in mutual funds. But chartz are charts... I'm confident that some of the money I make I owe to listening to him.
http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3720.cfm
























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What A Strange Long Trip It's Been.... And We're Only Half Way There.... 

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Hmm.. .Blogs; A Total Waste of Time? A Source Of Dangerous Mis Information?, Self Centered Self Gratification? A Dangerous Crowding Out Of Real Content? The Descent Of Erudite Intellectual Activity Into the Cacophony Of The Uneducated Masses? The Dilution Of Expertise And Knowledge?..... Pretty Much. 

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Your Life Is A One Act Play And You Are The Author. I'm Writing My Life As An Adventure and A Light Hearted Comedy. What Choo You Doin' Wit' Your Lifes? 

It has always been my view that Technical Analysis is an art, and like art, there are a lot of really bad examples of it out there.
--Rev Shark



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com.


Damn!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7r8uxe_ ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68FP359S ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v3PfqEv ... re=related
I GOT to start listening to something beside my Wolfgang's Vault downloads.....


So as of Nov 2011, I was 25% in bonds and 75% in stocks in my 401. I was a mile out there in the face of darkness and despair, listening to Jeff Miller of "A Dash Of Insight". Jeff was saying, "Pay Attention to the data..." "Pay attention to what should happen..." "Government works THIS way..." "Don't extrapolate your fears...".

I decided that there was a significant chance that this data driven assessment was a correct assessment and with a rigorous money management, I could make some money at relatively minimal risk.

Today, I'm down to 13% bonds and 87% stocks. Much of the change is because while bonds haven't gone down much, stocks have gone up a lot. It worked out right for me and it was self reinforcing. I set my allocation strongly in the aggressive direction. I was prepared to admit I was wrong, reverse my strategy, and sell out of the position if it went against me. I was also prepared to accept my stock/bond allocation automatically shifting in the right direction from an already aggressive position as good things happened.

It is said that there is an optimum proportion for a portfolio based on this and that and that you should re balance your portfolio every so often based on this and that so that you get it right back where it is supposed to be. It is also said to "Buy 'em when they're cryin' and sell 'em when they're yellin'".

I lean toward the latter. I'm just a poor ol' pipefitter with one client and one family to answer to, unencumbered by too many expectations and too much conventional knowledge. I just know that stocks and bonds go up and down, and if you work hard enough to have more of what is going up and less of what is going down, and that if you lean harder on not doing anything stoopid than on being too smart, you make money. Kinda what a self directed plan is all about.

I don't spend any time on looking for the one good decision/fund that will be the only thing I'll ever have to do, or the way to avoid having to deal with an ever changing and complicated world. That would be a waste of time.






Still running uphill to the right from downhill to the left; still worth more than it used to be a short time ago. Ride this Slow Train until it turns around........ And It Will.



http://gawker.com/5885705/the-to

Fuckin "A" Tweetie Bird!!!!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012 ... licans.php








Stay tooned.










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Smoking First 6 Weeks Of The Year. On Fire From Here? Or Down In Flames?  

"No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."
-- Ken Keyes, Jr.


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Rory...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL80jFkL ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3aY3xbo ... re=related
Play a gazllion concerts and stuff keeps coming outa the walls fifteen years after you're gone. Miss ya, Rory.


Greece is going down in flames and taking the world's economy down with it. Or the long slow twisting in the wind and the story being headlines for a year has allowed everyone exposed to the story to cover their ass enough to get by. I'm going into the week long betting on the second scenario. I may duck and cover latter in the week/month.... but I think the markets are telling us that there will be more of a squall that a hurricane. We'll see...












Stay tooned....












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Superbowl Sunday; Prolly Get To Doin' A Little Work On My Superbike... 

"There are some things which cannot be learned quickly, and time, which is all we have, must be paid heavily for their acquiring."
Ernest Hemingway


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




To Choogle, Or Not To Choogle....That Is The Question...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUzl7_OpVLA
They stopped by the radio station with the acetate off the metal master only hours old and the DJ spun the first two tracks, which were pretty good. Then he looked at the band and said, "The next one is pretty long... The band said,"Play it! It's a GOOD one." He dropped the needle on "Suzie Q". In those days I always had the reel to reel lit and ready to go whenever the radio was on because shit like this happened all the time. I had half of the first Creedence LP months before anyone else.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJe5sMBpnNY



Smoking Year So Far...Made The Most Of It Too.







This is the way I see the world. It saved me money and made me money. Bonds last summer and stocks this winter.


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ical-rant/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/21/contrition/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... both-ways/





Something is goin' on. The chartz been sayin' so since October. The market has had every opportunity to go south since New Year, and it hasn't. It may be that US structural employment issues to the side, Europe has been in the news long enough for the long and painful and grudging solution to it has been discounted. And that the threatening flameout of China, inevitable or not, is still out on the horizon and still out there somewhere in the future. And that US corporations are as lean as they can get and will have to hire to keep the stellar profits that they have been making, or lose out to someone who will.

If the above is all true, as of the end of Monday, I'll be at 85% stocks and 15% bonds in the 401 and lookin' good. But, if I'm badly mistaken and Greece goes down in flames with Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and plunges all of Europe into depression, taking down a huge chunk of China's export business with it, and US corporations start firing instead of hiring,well, I will be way too long stocks at the end of Monday.

Nothing that wholesale selling won't fix. I've had a good run since October and I'll move quickly to protect it.




http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/rap ... -1.1015716













http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... ather.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/ta ... -nfp-data/






Post October, What's Not To Like? Aside from the 50% correction of the October move in November.... Kinda expect to see another pullback soon. Maybe a big one. If so, I hafta think about getting flat. 1080 to 1350 is a 'ways. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. But I'll react to what the market tells me. If the market consolidates on rotation or sideways action, I'll stay put.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... -together/



Monday Eve...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... print.html



http://www.roadracingworld.com/news/art ... icle=47190

Lemme Go See If It's Where I Parked It....And, Second Place Is First Loser.

Tues Eve


Stocks Holding...Bonds Rolling Over...Stayin' Put.


You Ahl Stay Tooned...Ya Here?














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Hey!!! Us Northern Californians Would Be Happy To Take Some Of That Rain From Those With Too Much. A Coupla Years Of Brown Hills And Lawns Inna Spring And Yellow Water Inna Toilets All Year 'Round Inna 70's Was Enuff, Thank You. 

"The art of investment is the art of selling. Buying is a lesser skill and holding requires no skill at all."
-- Harry Schultz



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



Dougie Sahm; Long Live Garage Bands And The Razor Sharp Sound Of A Farfisa Or A Vox Continental.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxsWRDeuxTE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx_ln6e4tbQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-AWLocy ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MY0fesM4 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QCe1O6R ... re=related








I'm up 28% over all of last year's gains... in the first month of this year. It's a balance of cashing in on the rips and buying the dips vs letting it ride and not making your move too soon. The buying is one part. Selling is the other. Let's see how this year works out.
My original 60/40 from last year is now 76/23 as stocks have gone up. That is way rich for a bear market, which I believe that we are in and will stay in for a while yet. But every hurricane has its eye and ya can't pile water up at one end of the bathtub and expect it to stay there. I'm working with what the markets are offering.












http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... ort-story/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... on-abates/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... llwethers/
Risk on and risk off. Correlation and widespread investor fear is why I'm bipolar in outlook managing my 401. No matter how good the fund manager may be or where the fund may invest, panic in and panic out overwhelms everything. So that is the overwhelming dynamic and I'm hanging tough despite the surges in and out. The trend is up...pretty much and for now. But I'm STILL stickin' near the door.




http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/ ... e-thrived/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... mployment/



The original 99% movement...Occupy Washington
Patton and MacArthur and tanks vs US citizens in the streets


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/th ... -movement/
http://vimeo.com/30766340
General Butler invoked the 99% movement, telling the veterans:

We are divided, in America, into two classes: The Tories on one side, a class of citizens who were raised to believe that the whole of this country was created for their sole benefit, and on the other side, the other 99 per cent of us, the soldier class, the class from which all of you soldiers came. That class hasn’t any privileges except to die when the Tories tell them. Every war that we have ever had was gotten, up by that class. They do all the beating of the drums. Away the rest of us go. When we leave, you know what happens. We march down the street with all the Sears-Roebuck soldiers standing on the sidewalk, all the dollar-a-year men with spurs, all the patriots who call themselves patriots, square-legged women in uniforms making Liberty Loan speeches. They promise you. You go down the street and they ring all the church bells. Promise you the sun, the moon, the stars and the earth,–anything to save them. Off you go. Then the looting commences while you are doing the fighting. This last war made over 6,000 millionaires. Today those fellows won’t help pay the bill.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army





Where do you fit?
http://www.americablog.com/2011/01/us-i ... ition.html


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/ ... 2920120127



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46205510/ns ... yiNh8VSQig









}h2]http://www.alternet.org/teaparty/153973/why_we_got_ayn_rand_instead_of_fdr%3A_thomas_frank_on_how_tea_party_%27populism%27_derailed_a_new_new_deal/?page=entire









Stay Tooned...













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All Hail Marx And Lennon... 

Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
-- Groucho Marx



Chartz And Table Zup... @ www.joefacer.com




Ich Bin Ein Krome Dinette...
-- Francesco Zapparelli
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vYW0ECES5g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUEl3WcK ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYzfrcgR ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BppOWoK2Fc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2u55U1a ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgXrhvf_ ... re=related












Awesome week in the face of all that is darkness and despair. Now what?

Sunday Eve...

71% / 29% Stocks vs Bonds in the 401. STILL leaning toward the door, ready to go to cash, still earning money. As Cramer Says, "They don't put an asterisks next to your number." I'm nervous about everything but the price, and ready to bail if it actually starts to look bad...










The FED gooses the market....Steady as she goes... Still leaning toward the door.......









Stay Tooned....



















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First Time In Years I've Dug Through The Fusion Section Of The Record Cabinet... AWESOME!!!!!!! 

“I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization.”
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




It's been a few years since I dug through the fusion section and anything vinyl with Al Di Meola on it is amazing with a very good MC cartridge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3sT5Ucy ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YShQZUM ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGWfDkx4 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGHcoeoh ... re=related





This explains my world view;

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/wp-con ... n-fran.png
I can see the Outer Outer Sunset from my front door....




Situation unchanged inna 401a. I may change everything big time next week... Check it out


http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinetho ... -of-europe
New Monday Eve
http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebo ... d-outlook1










http://msnbc.msn.com/id/45997416/displa ... ginSlide=1
Book yer crooze inna next few weeks. prices prolly gonna be real reasonable....




The 401 is a "self directed" plan in which the participant applies a strategy and tactics to secure his retirement. Hope is not a strategy and "deer in the headlights" is a piss poor tactic.


Wed Eve...


http://interloping.com/2012/01/18/finan ... ses-point/





Thursday, moved a little money from bonds to stocks. Movin' a little more tomorrow. Stocks are goin' up. Volume, sentiment, news, technicals and fundamentals don't inspire confidence. The only thing I like is the price action.. Still turned toward the door, leaning, with the weight onna back foot. I'm making money inna 401, but even more concerned wit not losing it. Check out this weekends chartz and tablez.





Stay Tooned...



















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First Week Of The Year. I Gotta Hangover Of Christmas/Holiday Cheer. Not All Hangovers Are Bad....  

Many conveniently cite a book that they have not read, covering data that they have not reviewed, employing methodology that they do not understand, and reaching a conclusion that is not shared by many peers. This happens because the conclusions support a viewpoint that they already hold -- quite fervently. As a result, people are willing to bet real money.
-- Jeff Miller


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




I just found a new one... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1SZfGgZ ... re=related
This stuff comes outa the woodwork. Gawd, to go back to '66-'71 and relive those years with a video camera and DVD audio...

And, just like that, a Rory Gallagher video recording of excellent quality from a superb performance I hadn't seen surfaces and disappears. Oh Well. Here's one I, at least never tire of....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guL3xWi6rmg



http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... eview.html
http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358







http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/to ... 3054.story









No Change Inna 401...
We still have holiday/1st of the new year sentiment and momentum. I'm up close to last year's high water mark and everything is OK. At least at this very second and at this exact location. I'm concerned , watchful, and less than fully invested and leaning toward the door...



http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... -the-euro/

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... good-luck/

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archi ... -view.html


The Crossing Wall Street link is from an avowed "Buy And Holder". He's right, as is Rev "Saving Souls From Buy And Hold" Shark.
The key is capital preservation and risk management. So far, pretty damn good.



http://kiddynamitesworld.com/gingrich-s ... tball-fail



http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/c ... match-game





Time and price in the charts say that the bulls/dip buyers are in a place to strike fear into the hearts of portfolio managers over trailing the indexes right off the first few weeks of the year.

Fundamentally, I don't buy it. But standing in front of moving trains is a poor practice, regardless of whether or not they should be there in the first place.




Tues Eve


I'm on that moving train.... Caution is the watchword....





Stay Tooned....














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I've Had Worse Years....I've Had Better Years Too... 

"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."
-- James A. Michener


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Bonamassa. 'nuff said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxqYoZi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46UFXQVS ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0lIZHsp ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... vqFY2eM6jA




http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... until-2021
http://www.smartmoney.com/small-busines ... 801218019/















This is one the regular weekly posts on my website... That this is for the end of the year makes this one noteworthy....






This is the first table above reordered. The first table above is ordered to make data entry easier/match with previous versions/my mind set. This one is ordered by ranking the individual 401 investment funds from most lost over the year to most gained. There is info here.

Cycles, ya know? Lookit the chart below.




This is a fund I've had available in the 401 since late '04. Cycles. When the winds and currents are working for you, even in as treacherous and potentially gawdawful a place as the North Atlantic, you put everything that floats in the water to make what you can when you can. When winter comes, the currents go against you and the wind goes every which way, you take what you've made during the spring and summer and hole up someplace inland that's warm and dry and stay there doing stuff that makes sense until something changes. Look at the chart. You can see multiyear cycles as well as short term cycles. The time to pay attention to both the long term and short term cycles came this year.

So..... What I did this year was go big into stocks when the weather looked OK, like for the first three months. We are in a short term bull market off the financial crisis lows of 2009 and the recent trend is up. But I never got out of sight of the shore. We are in a long term multi-decade bear market. The major trend is down. When things got dark, I went to bonds and stayed there. When the weather looked like it was lightening up, end of the year, I went back to stocks but only part way, again with one eye on the sky and one eye on the shore. This was a short term play as written about over the last few weeks.
Over the course of the year, I exposed myself to the upside and down side and made some and lost some. I was rigorous about cutting losses; the flip side to letting winners run. I gave back some from my high water mark, but ended up positive for the year and ahead of the default position.

Check out the table below.





If I'd picked the right one of the dozen investment funds available to the 401 and went all in at the beginning of the year, I'da made 1/2 of one percent more with much larger drawdowns, i.e. greater risk. The second best fund, I'da made 3/10s of one percent more. My account, managed by "timing the market" with available 401 investment funds (I prefer to think of it as "managed with capital preservation and risk management goals"), would have placed third out of 13, with very low exposure to risk for a good chunk of the year.

I've had better years. I've had worse years too. Not losing money can be really good. Making a handfulla Simoleans or a Drachma or two after the accounts are settled can be a major victory. Like here and now.

But it was a fair amount of work for not much return. Or was it? I have friends who've been in bonds since the crash. This year that worked really well for them. Last year and the year before, it didn't. The year before that, it was un-fucking-believable. Ya gotta view it in the context of your balance in the 401, the demands of life and family, and where you are in life, and what is going on around you. I just did the math and I'm down wid' it. I got some coin outa the 401 when three funds lost more than 10% and the very best fund made a return that looked like a old time passbook savings account.

Pretty cool, huh?

Feelin' Awright, Actually I'm Feeling Pretty Good Myself......
-- TRAFFIC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Wk1zmb ... re=related
-- Not Traffic


I think I'll buy some Bonamassa CD/DVD's. I'm pretty sure I made enough to cover that anna piece a pizza anna beer.....


Good To Know
http://rightwingnews.com/election-2012/ ... -semitism/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... veals.html
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... surowiecki
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/page/26 ... most_a_tot





http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/fe ... ut-europe/




Tues

Re Ron Paul

Seventeen years and all of 4 bills made it to the floor and the one on selling a single piece of surplus government real estate passed. What a career.

"The unlikely elevation of a 76-year-old crank, with a few strange views and who has been rejected twice before as a presidential candidate, says a lot about the state of Republican politics."
-- Albert R. Hunt / Bloomberg

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... 21/English




http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archi ... -view.html





WED

http://dealbreaker.com/2012/01/convicte ... -his-scam/








Stay tooned.....











[ view entry ] ( 726 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 2.9 / 529 )
Merry Christmas... Please Remember Those With Less Reason to be Merry.....  

(I was) At a Wall Street bar yesterday listening to a trader make an impassioned defense of Mr. Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life" and blaming the Bailey Building & Loan for the subprime crisis.
-- Kamal Khan

I was at a party last weekend and one of the guests, a 0.05 percenter (aka extremely wealthy), made an impassioned speech against food stamps. And I quote him directly: "I'm against food stamps." When pressed on his logic, he simply stated "I don't believe in them."
-- Mark Casa




Billham Cobley. No strong hand and an independence between keeping time and left right strokes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2ikhatPxNE
Tony Williams. Ex Miles Davis and a demon to keep up with when he was hot...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGx9TPcE ... F84A70E0F9
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEC5KGS8 ... B5RVPF-RBn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBwxnMPP ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEfNSjQcbLU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ4wdqdP ... playnext=2



Tables And Chart Zup @ www.joefacer.com






http://asada0.tumblr.com/post/115176030 ... -new-light




VERY Tough Year To Make Some Money. Don't Take Much To Lead The Pack.... But Who Starts The Year Saying,"I Sure Hope I Break Even, That'd Be Really Nice..."



Ohh Yeah......
At this time of year, the 401 mutual funds pay a capital gains and dividend for the year for tax purposes. This looks like a big drop in the NAV for the funds on the order of five or ten percent. The loss is regained in a day or two when the share count goes up. I usually call this out but I forgot. Merry Christmas All!!!!



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/na ... ue-marble/


Spectacular!!!!


http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011 ... ty/100209/







http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/ne ... name-drugs
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/ ... else_.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/qu ... evitation/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ing-binge/



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-2 ... lewis.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/magaz ... K1rDdRWbIw

What Happened To My Country?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/wh ... y-country/



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ja ... chernobyl/






Stay Tooned....












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Season's Greetings!!!! Started Shopping yet? Me Neither.... 

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
-- Aldous Huxley



Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




Dan o' Steel.... About that origin.....
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/concerts/ ... 10102|6720









TOUGH YEAR!!!!


Hard work and not much to show for it....Better than the Balanced Pooled, way better than long stocks for the year, not nearly as good as bonds... long term performance is smokin'.


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/su ... -12162011/
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... neer-Video
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2011/12/pee ... k-box.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/todays_pa ... G&pg=6
http://www.theonion.com/articles/2011s- ... 1/?slide=1




Tuesday Eve....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ELleCQvew



I've been long since mid October. it's cost me some money along the way. It was never a bet on the economy or stocks or a brighter future. It was a bet on the self interest of Wall Street where the toughest trading of a lifetime has hammered a lot of managers flat. There are two weeks left to make the year and keep jobs and bonuses.

Trust in a man's instincts to take care of his own self interests, rather than in his better side. He probably doesn't have one.

It's a way's back to my high of the year, much less past that.... We'll see....




Stay Tooned












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Saw Bonamassa Last Night.The Wife And I Were As Impressed W/ The Drummer As Joe. Mostly Elderly Crowd; Almost As Old As I Am... A Few Were Convinced That The Program Was Their's, Coulda Been Worse... 

"No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."
-- Ken Keyes, Jr.


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46UFXQVS ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRxqYoZi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0APsJ9U ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHGEX8Aa ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opgUUbt- ... re=related
A lotta fun...





Ya Win Some, Ya Lose Sum. If I Can Hold near A 4% Return For The Year, I'll Declare It A Win. I'll Be Ahead Of All But Two Of The 401 Fund Choices With Less Risk Since I Was Outa Stocks A Good Part Of The Year...


Tick, tick, tick

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ec ... or-market/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-0 ... louts.html


Holy Shit!!!!!


http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... n_scandal/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ba ... n-dollars/



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/th ... -ayn-rand/


Tues Eve...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ph/249878/
http://peterlbrandt.com/mf-global-for-d ... -congress/
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... z1gMRRM1ah







Starting to lean really hard toward going heavily to bonds...

Stay Tooned.
















[ view entry ] ( 470 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3.2 / 549 )
The Markets Disappointed Those Waiting for Year End Melt Up Into Giving Up... Then It Blind Sided Those Who Gave Up..... DAMN!!!!!!!! 

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

- Isaac Asimov


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



One of the smokin'est shows I ever saw was Jimmy Witherspoon with the Hollywood Fats Band at the Boardinghouse... It was pre 'spoon's cancer and before Fat's went the way of way to many great musicians. Here's a glimpse....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlzk10Cq85o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzHZqEsz ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Be0goMg ... ubgjKvfyvA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9H3my1T ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5GX9f8J ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST2-28u3 ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbhhz6KR ... re=related

I've got ragged old tapes of The Hollywood Fats Band and the James Cotton Band at the Monterey Jazz Festival's Saturday Afternoon Blues show that is one of the top blues shows of my life...













As per last week, Sunday night I'd determined to gradually find my way to the sidelines on any kind of bounce, or bail all at once at signs of going off a cliff. Sunday night news of Central Banks actions to prevent a European bank melt down put me into neutral about 2/3rd long. Not half shabby.



I'm not all the way well, but I'm feeling better..... Having a buy out up 30% in a position in my trading account helped too...


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... dividuals/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ut-europe/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ry ... ft-behind/





http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ro ... mp-change/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... g-average/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ri ... citi-deal/
http://247wallst.com/2011/12/04/detroit ... aken-over/


Monday Eve...
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... -obstacles
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45558165/ns ... t1_xbIk67s



Thurs Eve...

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... ert-crisis



Stay tooned.



















[ view entry ] ( 669 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 512 )
Boy, I Sure Screwed That One Up....But ...That Was Last Night. From Zero To Hero And From Chump To Champ In 8 Hours... 

"The market is not a sofa, it is not a place to get comfortable."
Jim Cramer



Chartz And Table Zup.... @ www.joefacer.com



Makes Me Feel Better...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs-HwuZw ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqashW66D7o



It's been a bad coupla weeks and I've lost concentration and let some things slide due to personal issues. I had some very bad news about one of my favorite persons in my life. And it's cost me concentration and focus on the matters at hand. It couldn't a' happened at a worse time either. My thesis for the year's end looks like it was wrong and I was set up long stocks when the markets cratered on the Euro news. I shoulda cut back or bailed a lot sooner but, knowing that there was gonna be bad news before there was good news, I stayed too long too long based on hope, a poor strategy. Damn.

My losses inna market pretty much pales in comparison to the losses in my personal life. That said, I've got responsibilities to me and my family for the future as well as for what will soon be in the past.....so....

It's Not A Sin To Be Wrong, But It Is A Sin To Stay Wrong.


So How Bad Is It?

I can fix this. In absolute terms I lost a chunk o' money in two weeks. Practically speaking, Not So Much. Year to date, the Balanced Pooled Fund is down a little over 1%, I'm down a little under 2% from up 4%, the best stock fund is down 4%, the worst stock fund is down 15%, and the Stable Value Fund is up 2% and the best bond fund is up 5%. My losses are not even a hiccup on the long term chart and I can fix this.

I'm going to cash/bonds and derisking within the restrictions of the 401 and in a market where everyone is leaning the same way and that may provide me an opportunity to undo some damage... Getting less long is the order of the day and the week, and I've never lost money since I began to actively manage my 401 and I'm not going to be stoopid about trying to keep the streak alive. I made money in 2008, but things looked so shitty then, so that going to cash was a no brainer; Hell, no brainers are my specialty. This year was actually a tougher call. Too choppy. But a nine percent annual return '04 to date, down a whole point in 2 weeks still ain't half shabby and I can live w/ that.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... ncome.html



http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... last-week/


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ws ... s-deepens/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/25/opini ... .html?_r=1
http://www.cjr.org/essay/confidence_game.php?page=all
http://www.businessweek.com/printer/mag ... 02011.html
http://the-diplomat.com/2011/11/25/the- ... ded-age/2/







Late Sunday Eve:
There is a hot "Italy (Europe) has Been Saved (Again)" rumor on the wires; Futures are raging higher. This may be a chance to get out higher and sooner than I had hoped.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/11/27 ... -dont-die/

I understand where he is coming from....

Monday Eve...

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ro-or-dog/
Now all I gotta do is to do the smart thing... whatever that is....

We finally got a turn upward in the market, I'm still thinking of getting less long and doing it during a bounce is a better way to go. I gotta figure this out.


Thurs Eve.
Still long, made a dollar, gave a nickel back... Balancing the possibility of a year end run up against the hopelessness of the confederated states of Yerup, the on going delevering of the population vs the wringing out of the debt excesses.

Tomorrows job #s will tell a tale. I should take the money and run.....

Soon... maybe.








Stay Tooned.











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Not Yet Thanksgiving, Yet Holiday Season Heard Just Around The Corner.....Is It Me That's Wrong And Not The Picture? 

"Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask, 'Where have I gone wrong?' Then a voice says to me, 'This is going to take more than one night.'"
-- Charles M. Schulz





Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



If You're Really Good, Different Gears For Different Jobs Come Naturally...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvklBbYg ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp9V3D3u ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPJgtQwt ... re=related
Saw The Sgt P @ Winterland Back Inna Day. Blew My Mind....



http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archive ... tion=false
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qic4pjTE ... re=related
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45277296/ns ... sBDFHKwXbg





So I'm still carrying way too much stocks in the face of some truly nasty sentiment, nasty potentials, and it's all based on the faith that the market is not the economy and if rich guys need it to be up, it will go up. Fear vs calculation and faith the the game is to some degree rigged. I may be right, I may be wrong, and I may change my mind. Stay Tooned....



Holding my own for the year vs any and all funds. I can be satisfied with that. Especially in this market...





Ahl Be Bach.......
























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Headline Risk And 95% Correlation Of Stocks With The Headlines; An UnEnding Source Of Amazement And Delight..... Turn Out Delight.... 

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year olds life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves Orcs.”
-- John Rogers


Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


Before and After; ya gotta shelf life; know it or not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfSl1KHi ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJxfmVT4FJw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weYgSn6b ... re=related









http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/th ... ity-circa/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/mf ... -chutzpah/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/mf ... %94part-2/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 84948.html
http://alephblog.com/2011/11/05/bubbles ... ll-almost/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/su ... -11042011/


Monday...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... cohan.html




Tuesday



Still about 60% stocks into the year end in the face of whipsaws, daily manic flailing about and darkness and despair in the news. It's working so far.......








Stay Tooned...



























[ view entry ] ( 488 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 539 )
Every Pitcher Tells A Story, Doughnut.......  

Lindsey Campbell; What do you do to fix the economy?
Barry Ritholtz; I don’t know that the economy needs fixing. What do you do to fix night? You wait and it becomes day.



Charts And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com




I'd heard that the "hid behind the amplifiers" event occurred at The 'mo East when The Jeff Beck Group was 2nd act prior to the headliners, The 'Dead. The opening act had been boo'd off the stage in minutes. Beck figured that they had one shot and only one shot so they laid it all on the line by opening with their closer, "I Ain't Superstitious.... kinda knocked 'em Dead....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxYu0IU9gdg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YxpDEpngko
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIkwAoWq ... re=related











I started to go long onna 10th and I was up to 40% in stocks from zero by the middle of this week. I miskeyed an entry a coupla days ago and I'm way too long stocks now, but that hasn't hurt me....yet. There are cross currents under the surface of the market and I'm big time aware of the conflicts. I'm gonna change some stuff in the 401 and set up some contingencies next week, TBD.



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/mr ... ful-blues/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/as ... ng-crisis/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/mc ... p-dat-aet/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... stors.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-o ... 2011-10-28

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/10/th ... _of_i.html



http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/10/27/Fi ... y-Bankers/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opini ... odayspaper
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/su ... -10282011/


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/bl ... g-20111025





Monday


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/bo ... 1981-2011/






http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... endum.html
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... 10/English

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/152897
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15391515



Explains A LOT....
http://www.moneyweb.com/mw/view/mw/en/p ... pid=287226


http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... eaven.aspx
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... ed-selves/
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/01/world ... index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/opini ... .html?_r=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/ ... 2128040CF6



http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ia ... o-incomes/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... onomy.html








I'm doing better than all but two of the funds out of the ten and I'm in good shape if stocks react well to the end of the year/holidays.
or, I'll have to adjust if that allocation loses me money. Stay Tooned....

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... treet.html


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/ar ... ing-point/



Stay Tooned.....


















[ view entry ] ( 448 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 524 )
You Can Lead A Horse To Water, But Unless You Can Teach Him To Swim On His Back, Ya Ain't Showed Me Nothin...... 

“I’ll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one.”
-- Seen At Occupy Wall Street Rally






Chartz And Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com ...




Every Young Man Has Something He Hopes Never Sees The Light Of Day...Enjoy.
http://www.wolfgangsvault.com/clover/vi ... 81731.html
The two dancin' fools went on to be moderately successful as did one of the guitarists ... Can you figure out where?


I put some money to work this week... maybe some more goin' out on Monday. Details to follow....











http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/is ... ust-noise/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html




Europe desperately wants the markets to go up. Wall Street NEEDS the markets to go up. The government sure wants the markets to go up. Despite EVERYTHING, the markets look like they want to go up. I sense a theme.... http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... -q4-rally/





I'm edging back in for the year... http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... d-all-out/



JFC!!!!!! http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 0812.story



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... -says.html



I started to put money to work in stocks on the 10th. I had some in, I coulda had more. But I made a dollar.... I'm thinkin' about what's next.........











Stay Tooned...













[ view entry ] ( 401 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 532 )
Busy Weekend. I'll post as time permits... 

Chartz and table zup @ www.joefacer.com

I got some money back in stocks. ma y keep it there, may not. .










Wed...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... -says.html
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... -tatooine/









Stay Tooned...






[ view entry ] ( 336 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 520 )
The Tea Party Last Year And The Occupy Wall Street Movement This Year. Shades Of The Sixties And Seventies!!. Maybe A Third Or Fourth Party? Oh Boy! This Generation's Choice Between Perot/Iaccoca And Nader!! Louis Louis..... Me Gotta Go Now ... 

Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.
--Unknown




Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com


The original Procul Harum LP was in mono and they waited a year to release the album after the single charted. You wouldn't have believed how the record industry was run in the 60's. We listened to Jimi for 6 months on English imports bootlegged in while they worked out whether or not getting the album in the US was an idea or not. Anyway, here's one of the Haight Ashbury's stoner anthems from Procol Harum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjBKu7Wq ... re=related





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... mands.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjBKu7Wq ... re=related
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... parts.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... parts.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... -says.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/pa ... nstration/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/to ... moneyball/
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... rticle%3D1


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... alter.html
http://www.the-american-interest.com/ar ... piece=1049

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ory_1.html
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10 ... overy.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content ... /OWS-M.jpg












Fuckin' "A" Tweetie Bird!
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/1 ... ou-to-die/
Sign Me UP! Kick Ass Comments When You Scroll Deeper...

http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/sp ... -wildfire/







I Don't Like Where We Are, I Don't like The News, I Do Like Bonds And Cash.
We Are Teetering...
If We Make It many Will Never Know How Close We Came. I'd Just As Soon We Make It. I'm On The Side Lines Until We Get Clarity....


Monday
kinda sad... But, its what makes Obama re electable
http://www.frumforum.com/what-romney-gets-right

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... ows-wants/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/wh ... out-dexia/



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/hu ... t-roundup/

TUES

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... t-traders/
http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel ... ted-execs/





The Chart Don't Look Good... We're still stick inna range, we're just barely 3/4s of the way through the range onna upside, not much upside left, lotsa resistance above, everybody HATES the volatility and a lot of investors have given up. We're prolly going into a recession (40% to 100% plus/minus prob so far)... Europe is gonna implode, China is slowing down, the entire US government is FUBAR, etc...

What the hell, I edged a little money outa bonds and inta stocks...

End of the year coming up... money managers gotta inflate the market if they're gonna be paid and the market ain't the economy. Sooner or later we will go up again, shame not to have a mindset that accepts change and reality when one acts on the other....

I'm started in if we the the usual year end melt up and I'm not so far in that I can't get out with only a little damage.


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/oc ... egativity/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ml?hpid=z3



http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/ ... 1L20111010
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... -exposure/







Stay Tooned....















[ view entry ] ( 473 views ) [ 0 trackbacks ] permalink ( 3 / 518 )
Forty Years Ago, I Didn't Understand Why All The Old Timers Ever Talked About Was Retiring. It Gets Clearer Every Year.... 

Risk Management and Capital Preservation is often confused with Market Timing, and therefore is frowned upon.
-- Barry Ritholtz



Chartz and Table Zup @ www.joefacer.com



Marshall Tucker Was A Rock Band Before They Were Country. I Saw 'em Open For The Allman Bros New Years Eve Show Inna 70's. SMOKIN'....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEOV5vWfSgI



It's Been A Rotten Week Inna Market... But There Is An Answer To The Social Security Problem.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/so ... e-younger/








I Have half A Dozen Go to Guys...Lakshuman Is One...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/le ... recession/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/







http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/su ... s-9-30-11/
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/0 ... ucktember/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/mo ... x-changes/








It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.

And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops...


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... cal-union/


Lemme ruin your day...
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/feat ... wis-201111
http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/tran ... -blame-fed
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0 ... ery-wrong/








More Lakshman Achuthan
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/ec ... escapable/




MONDAY MONDAY....
A Most Thoroughly Unpleasant Day.




I HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TOMORROW WILL BE BETTER.....


THIS IS WHY I MANAGE MY SELF MANAGED PLAN MYSELF....


The Upside Can Be Ferocious ....So Can The Downside...
The Goal Is Capture One And Dodge The Other.



http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10 ... ar-market/
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/SixPackin.aspx
http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2011/09/c ... story.html



Thursday











Stay Tooned.... And see ya at the hall before the meeting.






















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